Spain will end 2022 with a second consecutive increase in its greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for climate change affecting the planet and humanity. The increase will be remarkable: 3.6% predict a study produced by the Observatory for Energy Transition and Climate Protection (OTEA), which is dependent on the Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3). Despite this renewed increase, however, emissions will remain below those of 2019, i.e. pre-pandemic levels.
As in other countries, the closure of activities in 2020 due to the fight against the coronavirus in Spain led to an unprecedented reduction in greenhouse gases, which fell by 13% this year compared to 2019. What was later expected was an upswing, because the decline was not due to structural changes but to the economic slowdown. In fact, emissions are up 5.1% in 2021, and despite the 3.6% OTEA is now forecasting for this year, the pre-coronavirus starting box has not returned. In 2019, Spain emitted 314.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (the unit used for greenhouse gases). And this year, 2022, will end at 299.1 million, down about 5% from three years ago, according to forecasts by BC3 researchers.
Energy – including here transport, electricity and industry – is the one that determines the future of emissions in Spain, as in the rest of the developed world. This is because this sector is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, the main emitters of greenhouse gases when burned for energy. “In the energy sector, the year 2022 was primarily characterized by two facts. First, a gradual return to normal in terms of mobility after two years of pandemic and second, an energy crisis, reflected in the rise in oil and natural gas prices, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the OTEA analysis describes. Both circumstances have had an impact on the emissions of the Spanish economy.
Mikel González-Eguino, director of OTEA, explains that the largest increase in emissions is expected in the power sector. But in his opinion it is something “cyclical”. On the one hand there is the drought. “This year was particularly dry, hence the contribution from hydraulics [que no emite gases de efecto invernadero] to generate electricity was reduced by almost half compared to the previous year,” says the OTEA analysis. The other important factor is the increase in electricity exports to Portugal and especially France, which has been largely covered by natural gas power plants that emit gases that overheat the planet. In the case of France, according to González-Eguino, the problem lies in the failures detected in an important part of its nuclear power plants, which have had to be shut down and have forced the country to increase its imports from Spain.
The positive data is that the adoption of renewable energy in Spain continues to increase, although the increase “was not enough to offset the larger increase in electricity production that has taken place thanks to natural gas and, to a lesser extent, coal”, he explains to OTEA. His study indicates that “Spain needs to continue to accelerate renewable energy deployment, but if the trade balance is reduced and hydraulics return to normal, emissions should return to a downward path.”
Information is the first tool against climate change. Subscribe to her.
Subscribe to
More complicated is the route that the transport follows. Despite the high fuel prices experienced this year, mobility has recovered and is approaching pre-pandemic levels. “It’s a worrying situation,” admits González-Eguino. For their forecasts on the annual development of emissions, the OTEA experts use sectoral data from various official bodies. Spain is required to report its greenhouse gas inventory annually to the UN and the European Union as a result of the international agreements to combat climate change that it is a party to. However, the progress of the inventory is usually not known until about six months after the end of the year, so analyzes such as OTEA’s are helpful in getting an idea of how the country’s emissions will develop.
Target for 2030
Spain is not only obliged to submit inventories, but also to comply with emission reduction targets. At this point, the Climate Protection Law stipulates that Spain’s emissions in 2030 must be 23% lower than 1990 levels. And according to OTEA projections, 2022 will end with emissions 3.4% higher than 1990 levels . since 1990.
González-Eguino warns that there are only eight years left to reach the 23% reduction target, so action must be accelerated. In addition, Spain is required by its own climate law and the European Union’s pledges to revise upwards its 2030 emission reduction targets, a process that the Ministry of Ecological Transition has already begun to prepare.
Follow CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT on Facebook and Twitteror sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits