Neighboring countries have condemned a sharp increase in Japan’s defense spending and significant changes to the country’s long-held security policy, with even nominally allied governments voicing concerns about a burgeoning arms race in Northeast Asia.
The Japanese government announced Dec. 16 that it intends to drastically increase defense spending in the coming years by allocating 43 trillion yen (€296 billion/$323 billion) over the next five years and increasing annual defense spending increased to 2% of the country’s GDP by 2027.
The additional investments include foreign purchases or domestic development of advanced new fighter jets, drones, a new class of sophisticated diesel-electric submarines, long-range missiles and additional surface warfare ships.
Investments will also be channeled into improved logistics capabilities – a lesson learned from the Ukraine conflict – and enhanced cyber and space warfare capabilities.
Concurrent with higher spending, critics suggest Tokyo is moving away from the obligation enshrined in its constitution – enacted after the nation’s defeat in World War II – which specifically prohibits the use of force in international disputes.
A key element of Tokyo’s new military buildup will be the development and deployment of weapons capable of hitting an enemy base if it is determined that an attack on Japan is imminent.
Japan’s Defense Ministry says missiles fired by China landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Credit: Andre M. Chang/ZUMAPRESS.com/picture alliance
Growing Security Challenges in Northeast Asia
“Unfortunately, there are countries near our country that are conducting activities such as improving nuclear capabilities, rapid military buildup, and unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the increase in spending on Dec. 9 .
North Korea – which has launched a large number of advanced new long-range ballistic missiles in recent months – is likely to launch a new missile-equipped submarine in the near future and plans to conduct a seventh underground nuclear test.
Despite international condemnation, China continues to fortify disputed islands and atolls in the South China Sea. Beijing has insisted that Taiwan be incorporated into mainland China, by force if necessary, and is embroiled in a series of territorial disputes with several of its neighbors, including Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines.
North Korea was quick to respond to Japan’s defense spending announcement with a statement from the Pyongyang State Department that said Tokyo will “bring a serious security crisis to the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.”
The statement accused Japan of being “a war criminal state” and “wantonly violating the UN Charter”. [and] Upgrading Weapons for Another Invasion” in Korea. The ministry threatened that North Korea would respond with “actual action,” although it did not specify its intentions.
In a statement issued through its embassy in Tokyo, the Chinese government said Japan’s move “provoked regional tensions and confrontations” and called on Tokyo to stop using the so-called “China threat” as an excuse for its own military expansion use.
Last Thursday, Russia joined in the chorus of criticism, claiming that Japan was abandoning decades of pacifist policies and replacing them with “unbridled militarism.” A Foreign Ministry statement in Moscow said the decision “will inevitably create new security challenges and heighten tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.”
Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations at Kokushikan University in Tokyo, said the criticism from Japan’s regional rivals “is in line with what I expected before the announcement.”
Japan has been closely monitoring the movements of the Chinese aircraft carrier LiaoningImage: Portal
Fear of an arms race in the region
“My fear is that we are about to get caught up in an arms race in the region, and it may have already started,” he told DW.
“The North Korean response has been mostly rhetorical and they will not actually attack Japan, but this response is symptomatic of our times,” he said. “We need to be more concerned about China and Russia, who started joint military exercises in the East China Sea this week, and that can only be seen as a message to Japan.”
Japan is also closely watching the movements of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, which is conducting landing exercises off the southern Japanese islands of Okinawa Prefecture, while three Chinese government patrol ships entered Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on Thursday. China claims the uninhabited islands as its own territory and refers to them as the Diaoyutai Archipelago.
Zinberg said he was even more surprised by Seoul’s response to Japan’s increase in defense spending, with President Yoon Suk-yeol’s government saying it was “a serious matter” and warning that Tokyo must consult with Seoul on security issues the Korean Peninsula.
The South Korean media was even more strident when the Korea Times ran an editorial demanding that Tokyo “not forget the lessons of the Pacific War” that ended nearly 80 years ago and declaring that “Japanese right-wing groups have one goal: regaining the former military and political influence of their country.”
Another editorial in The Korea Herald said Japan’s plans to develop a counter-attack capability “mark a dramatic political shift.” It hinted that Tokyo could use its newfound military strength to “take more provocative action” to retake the South Korean-held islands midway between the peninsula and Japan over which Tokyo claims sovereignty.
The islands are occupied by a South Korean police force and are known as Dok-do. Japan insists that they should be considered part of Japan and known as Takeshima.
Eunjung Lim, associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University in South Korea, pointed out that relations between Japan and South Korea are “very complicated” due to the two nations’ shared history.
South Korea has warned Tokyo must consult with Seoul on security issues related to the Korean PeninsulaImage: Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
Japan-South Korea vote of confidence
“There are two main reasons for South Korea’s response,” she said. “The first is simply the scale of the increase, which will give Japan the third largest military budget in the world. South Korea can’t compete with that as our GDP is about a third of Japan’s, so people here think it’s too much.”
“But a more important reason is that it violates Japan’s peace constitution,” she added. “Japan now says it has the right to launch a counteroffensive against an enemy military base if it detects a threat, but under our constitution the north is still considered part of Korea, so this could be considered an attack on South Koreans.” ”
The root of the problem, Lim believes, is trust.
“I think that with China’s growing power and even the challenges from Russia, Japan had no choice but to overhaul its national security policy,” she said. “But Koreans have traumatic memories of Japan’s colonial rule in the peninsula, and many people feel that we just can’t trust Japan as a reliable partner.”
“These concerns are now being amplified by conservatives and nationalists in the media, and until their concerns are fully addressed it may be difficult to trust Japan again,” she said.
Edited by: Keith Walker