27.12.2022 21:05 (act. 27.12.2022 21:05)
Virologist Drosten’s statement causes a stir. ©Canva, AP
German virologist Christian Drosten’s statement in an interview that he believed the corona pandemic was over sparked an argument.
There were calls for security measures to be relaxed. But Gecko’s advisory committee warned ahead of Christmas that Corona should not be underestimated, even when it becomes endemic. Even so, there could be “massive weakenings” that would require local action.
“We are facing the first endemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 this winter and, in my opinion, the pandemic is over,” said the head of virology at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin. Population immunity will be so widespread and resilient after this winter that the virus will hardly make it through the summer, the dpa said, citing it on Monday. Drosten named another mutation jump as the only constraint. “But I don’t expect that anymore at the moment.”
“Came to stay”
Virologist Dorothee von Laer of the Medical University of Innsbruck agreed with Drosten that the pandemic is over. Corona “sneaked out” and is now part of another series of colds or viral infections such as the flu, explained Von Laer to the APA. Covid-19 will look like this. The Innsbruck virologist also cited the broad baseline immunity that now exists in the population, meaning far fewer people get sick, and if they do, it’s not as severe as in earlier times.
Austrian geneticist Ulrich Elling can also agree with the assertion of German virologist Christian Drosten that the first endemic wave with SARS-CoV-2 is rolling. “The pandemic in that sense” is over, but Covid-19 “is here to stay,” Elling said. If you define “pandemic” in such a way that a new pathogen encounters an immunologically unprepared population, then this phase of dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is more or less over, according to the Institute for Molecular Biotechnology (IMBA) researcher. researchers working at the Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) in conversation with the APA. If Drosten now talks about endemic, it is true because the vast majority of people who were once exposed to the pathogen are now infected with Covid-19.
After the omicron variant caused widespread infection in Austria for about a year and, relatively recently, the BA.5 subvariant caused a surge of about two million people infected and therefore only recently recovered, “people now have a broad immune base built,” said Elling: It is currently dealing with an “endemic wave.” You’re more likely to find people in the older age cohorts who haven’t actually had a Covid infection yet. Furthermore, protection against re-infection after infection lasts longer than initially thought.
However, you can now see the strong “pandemic aftermath” with many RS and influenza virus infections. In addition, there is a certain “erosion in the health system”, where employees, often exhausted and reduced by the pandemic, are again faced with a very high load and a lack of resources, especially in the children’s area . In many contexts, structural problems would now become more tangible as a result of savings in the health sector.
“Totally Crazy Combination”
With SARS-CoV-2, there is now a new virus in the portfolio of common pathogens, so to speak, “that is going to stay,” Elling emphasized. How often people can actually become infected with it over the long term, on average, can hardly be estimated.
This also depends on the additional mutability of the pathogen. The researcher is part of the team that scientifically analyzes the continuous rapid genetic development of the virus. For the critical system overloads of SARS-CoV-2 to occur again in the current situation, a “completely crazy combination” would have to develop. Elling does not see such a “game changer” on the horizon at the moment, which also significantly increases the “severity of the disease”, and also considers it increasingly unlikely.
“Wavy Seasonal Occurrence”
However, the possibility remains as a “dark horse”. Thus, the geneticist also defends the maintenance of a scientific view of the development of variants. Compared to many other measures during the pandemic, this is really not expensive, according to the scientist.
Epidemiologist Eva Schernhammer, a member of the Austrian Gecko Commission, said five days ago that we could be approaching an endemic phase. Currently available indicators support this. “If the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains relatively the same or becomes predictable, as is the case with the flu, for example, since its seasonal occurrence in a waveform is relatively easy to anticipate.”
45,826 people infected in Austria
In that context, though, the gecko claimed that Corona will also cause problems if the condition is endemic, simply because there will be a greater disease burden across the world. In addition, “Long Covid” will affect general well-being and the ability to earn a living, and increase health care costs. Schernhammer warned that when a disease becomes endemic, it doesn’t necessarily mean a positive development: “For example, malaria is endemic in certain latitudes. But that doesn’t make malaria any less dangerous.”
According to the AGES update, 45,826 people in Austria are currently infected with Corona. The seven-day incidence in Austria is currently 333.6 infections per 100,000 population, compared to 366.5 the day before. On Monday, 2,231 new infections were added. That’s well below the seven-day average of 4,302 new cases. Until this morning, there were 1,150 infected people in the hospital, which means 16 less compared to the previous day. Of these, 52 are in intensive care, eleven less than yesterday. Three deaths were recorded on Monday. Austria’s corona death toll has risen to a total of 21,376.
Endemic is an infectious disease that has become indigenous and occurs constantly in a limited area – like cholera, plague and typhoid fever; in Central Europe, pulmonary tuberculosis, measles or scarlet fever. An epidemic is the highly frequent occurrence of a disease that is limited in time and space. This includes many tropical diseases such as dengue, but also cholera, flu, typhoid, plague and polio. An epidemic that spreads across countries and continents is called a pandemic. This includes AIDS, but also the plague in the Middle Ages or the flu, which led to three pandemics in the 20th century. The “Spanish flu” of 1918 killed between 25 and 50 million more people than in World War I. This was followed in 1957 by the “Asian flu” with around one million deaths and the “Hong Kong flu” in 1968 with around 700,000 deaths worldwide. The spread of Corona also became a pandemic in 2020.
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