Lt. Gen. Jocelyn (Joe) Paul claimed the Army reduced its forces by 1,200 troops in 2021 as attrition exceeded recruitment.
The Army, the land component of the Canadian Forces (CAF), could lose hundreds more if the situation doesn’t change.
“Unfortunately, if we stay the same course, we can probably expect another 800 drop [militaires]. »
– A quote from Lieutenant General Jocelyn Paul
The deficit arises as the military prepares to send potentially hundreds of additional troops to Latvia, where NATO plans to expand a battle group in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first announced a deal with Latvia in June to essentially double the size of the 2,000-troop battlegroup Canada has commanded since 2016 by turning it into a brigade.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with soldiers during a visit to the Adazi military base, northeast of Riga, Latvia, March 8, 2022.
Photo: Getty Images / AFP / TOMS NORDE
The accord was an extension of similar agreements involving seven other eastern European countries where NATO has combat forces to ward off the threat of a Russian attack.
Canada is contributing about 700 troops to the armed forces in Latvia, which also includes soldiers and equipment from ten other NATO members.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, there were 600 Canadian troops in this NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup in Latvia.
Intensified negotiations
While talks between the involved allies in Latvia have already begun, Lt. Gen. Paul indicated they would intensify in earnest over the next year to determine each country’s contribution to strengthening the force.
I will also be traveling to Europe in February where I will sit down with many of my European colleagues so we can find the most efficient way to meet the needs, he said.
Topics discussed include the number of soldiers and the type of equipment Canada needs for a permanent presence in Latvia and what it can keep on Canadian soil.
Jocelyn Paul, Lt. Gen. (Archive)
Photo: Radio Canada / David Bates
The calculations are based not only on the logistical challenges associated with the rapid movement of troops, equipment and ammunition to Europe during a war with Russia, but also on the needs of the military in Canada.
“How much equipment can I afford to be pre-positioned in Latvia without interfering with my training at home too much, without interfering with my ability to conduct domestic operations? »
– A quote from Lieutenant General Jocelyn Paul
Conclusion: The Canadian military cannot sustain a much larger operation in Latvia in the long term.
If we set up two battlegroups in Latvia, supported, we cannot. […] especially when it is necessary to replenish our ranks, Lt. Gen. Paul affirmed.
Speaking of understaffing being felt across much of Canada’s armed forces, Lt. Gen. Paul said the military is reviewing some long-established practices to see where it could be more effective.
A re-evaluation is in progress
This includes determining whether some large-scale training exercises are needed given the strain on middle officers and non-commissioned officers, who are also essential to directing missions in the field.
We don’t want to overtrain, we don’t want to undertrain, Lt. Gen. Paul argued. We want to find the right balance.
It’s also about reviewing the type of equipment the military intends to deploy in the years to come, and whether more automation and even artificial intelligence can reduce some of the manpower requirements as part of a broader reassessment.
“What can we refine? »
– A quote from Lieutenant General Jocelyn (Joe) Paul
What do we need to do less of? What should we do more of? So we have a kind of testimony that’s being put together right now. Because we have to.