During the holiday season, Canada and the United States were hit by record frost and snow storms: a mass of arctic air descending from the North Pole caused an extraordinary thermal meltdown from Montana to Texas; in some states on the border with Canada it went from positive values to peak values of -25/-30°C with wind and snowstorms in a few hours. Cyclone Bomba, a vortex that caused the pressure to drop by around 25 millibars (or hectopascals) in less than 24 hours, was also responsible for this extreme event: The cyclone caused extensive and extreme snowstorms, i.e. gusts of wind like a hurricane together with plenty of snow. A valid question has come up in the last few days: Will this arctic cold and the cyclone bomb also reach Europe and Italy?
Antonio Sanò, director and founder of the website www.iLMeteo.it, answers this question by analyzing the situation on a global scale.
The danger, with the fear of living in Europe a similar situation as at Christmas in the USA, arises from the now widespread knowledge of the most important meteorological concepts: disturbances move in 90% of cases from west to east, we are us aware that even hurricanes sometimes come from the US coasts to touch the UK or the Iberian Peninsula and we frequently see disturbed fronts crossing the Atlantic and bringing widespread rainfall to Europe and Italy. Is it therefore possible that the Cyclone Bomb will arrive in Italy?
The time it takes to cross the Atlantic is on average 5-6 days, so in those very hours we would risk being hit by the US cyclone bomb.
So let’s try to understand where this cyclone is headed and what the weather will be like in Italy in the next few days.
The US cyclone bomb did not move east and toward the Atlantic in the days after Christmas, but remained stationary between Canada and the Northwest Passage, practically between Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea south of Greenland: although slowly weakening, the cyclone sent yet an intense disturbance to Europe.
However, in recent days the Azores High, which has greatly simplified the meteorological configuration, has acted as a barrier against this disturbance, diverting the unstable and cold flow towards Iceland and Great Britain: there have been abundant snowfalls in Iceland and even thunderstorms over Ireland and the Scotland.
So we can sleep soundly in Italy, the Azores High protected us by redirecting the disturbed flow north and significantly dampening the original arctic disturbance that hit Canada and the United States.
The weather for the New Year will therefore be stable and mild for days as expected; there will be significant further deterioration in northern and western Europe only as a reminder of Cyclone Bomba which, along with other meteorological factors, is still affecting the weather in the Atlantic areas.
In Italy, after some rains that will continue for the next few hours in the central north, we will see a new comeback of the African anticyclone, cousin of the Azores high that protected us from bad weather in the United States: together , the two anticyclones will us therefore bring a stable and sunny period for December 31st and January 1st, with the exception of more compact clouds in the Po Valley and between Liguria and Tuscany, where drizzle is not excluded even at toast time.
A toast that will be warm everywhere, among other things: even in the mountains, think that the freezing point will rise to 3300 meters like in summer, at midnight we have 5°C in Cortina d’Ampezzo, 10°C in Courmayeur .
Coming down from the mountain, on New Year’s Eve we expect 10°C in Milan with local drizzle, 14°C in Genoa with some rain, then almost everywhere dry weather with 15°C at midnight in Florence (!), 10°C in Bologna, Rome and Bari, 12°C in Ancona and Naples, 14°C in Palermo and Cagliari.
In short, for the second “summer” New Year’s Eve in a row (2021/22 was also very hot for this period) we will toast with “warm” sparkling wine.
IN DETAIL
Friday 30th In the north: fog or overcast skies with the last rains over Liguria and the north-east. In the center: partly cloudy with rain over the upper Tuscany, local and scattered rain showers also not excluded over the rest of the center. In the south: mostly sunny and mild.
Saturday 31. In the north: sun in the mountains, clouds on the plain, drizzle in Lombardy and Liguria not excluded. In the middle: clouds over upper Tuscany, otherwise sunny. In the south: mostly sunny and mild.
Sunday 1. In the north: clouds on the plains, sun on the mountains. Center: clouds over upper Tuscany, beautiful elsewhere. In the south: good weather.
Trend. Slight drop in high pressure in the north, rain on day 3.