If Macron’s victory is confirmed, he is likely to continue his reformist agenda.
Louise Delmoth | News from Getty Images | Getty Images
Frenchman Emmanuel Macron is expected to face a second term as president, with exit polls predicting he will easily beat his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s election.
The centrist Macron of the La République En Marche party is likely to win around 58.2 percent in the second and final ballot, according to a forecast by pollster Ipsos-Sopra Steria, along with Marine Le Pen of the nationalist and far-right National Rally party to around 41.8 percent .
Immediately after the projections, Le Pen spoke to her supporters in Paris and accepted defeat. She said her result was a “victory” for her political movement, citing the general elections that will be held in June.
“The French tonight have shown a desire for a strong counterweight against Emmanuel Macron, for an opposition that will continue to defend and protect them,” she said, according to a Reuters translation.
Despite the predicted victory for Macron, the lead represents a narrower gap between the two candidates compared to the 2017 election, when Macron won with 66.1% of the vote.
voter apathy
The 2022 election campaign took place against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis in France, a surge of support for the far left among younger generations, and signs of widespread voter apathy. Turnout on Sunday was 2 percentage points lower than in the 2017 election, according to the Home Office.
At the start of the campaign, 44-year-old Macron benefited from his attitude and diplomatic efforts towards the Russia-Ukraine war. But that support waned in the days leading up to the first round of voting on April 10, when French citizens were sharply focused on internal affairs and rising inflation.
Marine Le Pen – who has since run for the French presidency three times – chose to distance herself from her previous rhetoric about the European Union and euro integration and instead focus on the economic struggles of French voters.
Putin links
However, as the second round of voting approached, scrutiny of the two individuals and their policies intensified. In a two-hour televised debate on Wednesday, Macron pointed to Le Pen’s past ties to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, accusing her of being dependent on Moscow.
Macron said on Friday Le Pen’s plans to ban Muslim women from wearing headscarves in public would spark a “civil war.”
If Macron’s victory is confirmed, he would become the first French president in two decades to win a second term. He will seek to continue his reformist agenda and has recently pledged to help France achieve full employment and change the country’s retirement age from 62 to 65.
Frederic Leroux, head of the cross-asset team at French fund manager Carmignac, said Macron’s clear win should calm markets.
“In the near term, the main logical beneficiary of this election could be the euro, which was still flirting with two-year lows against the dollar last Friday,” he said in a flash research note following the projections.
“However, the negative aspect of this rather convenient choice for the markets could stem from a hasty decision in favor of a Russian oil embargo, which would exacerbate inflationary pressures and economic slowdown (stagflation scenario) in Europe,” he added.