Already on February 24, 2022, at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, political scientist Gerhard Mangott knew: “This is a strategic mistake.”
massive insulation
“It was clear that this would result in enormous diplomatic, political and economic isolation for the country,” Mangott said in the PULS 24 interview. It would be completely impossible”.
many misconceptions
In addition, there were many “mistakes” on the part of Russia. Russia did not count on Ukraine’s willingness to defend itself and its ability to defend itself. The West’s willingness to provide Ukraine with “massive military and financial support” was also downplayed.
What happens now?
In general, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are “completely hopeless” because both parties are imposing “unacceptable” conditions on the other side. The war will therefore not end in negotiations for the foreseeable future, Mangott believes.
Even so, if talks do take place, there is no guarantee that Russia will be satisfied and not launch another attack on Ukraine. Another attack is a “big risk that cannot be ruled out”, says the political scientist.
Mangott considers it very unlikely that the “territorial concessions made by Ukraine to Russia” will be resolved. If he gets to that point, however, it must be accompanied by a “massive build-up of the Ukrainian armed forces and Western security guarantees”. This would be inevitable to ensure that Ukraine does not fall victim to Russian “military aggression” again.
Karner: “Appeasement Policy” Failed
Military expert Gerald Karner also weighs in on possible developments in Ukraine’s war in the PULS 24 interview.
The West’s “appeasement” policy towards Vladimir Putin has failed, as has Europe’s “change through trade” strategy. According to military expert Gerald Karner, the West underestimated Putin’s determination to “split Ukraine”.
Ukraine “cannot and must not” accept Russian annexations
For possible negotiations, Russia demands that Ukraine accept “the new reality”, namely the annexation of Ukrainian state territories. According to Karner, Ukraine cannot and should not get involved in something like this.
From Karner’s point of view, this is not only unacceptable for Ukraine, but also with regard to the post-conflict world order. “Otherwise, it would be somewhat accepted that an aggressor could succeed in annexing large areas of the other country, in violation of international law,” said the military expert.
Ukraine and the international community could not accept this. Karner believes that the only way to “end the war as quickly as possible” is through massive support from Ukraine.
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And how is the civilian population in Ukraine? Thomas Seifert, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the “Wiener Zeitung”, talks about this in the PULS 24 interview.