The College Football Playoff is upon us. After months of speculating about who would make the college football Final Four — and another month of trying to figure out what will happen once the actual teams are announced — we’ve gotten to the point where we can only must have The teams enter the field and end the debate themselves.
But that doesn’t mean we’ll stop trying to find out before the Fiesta Bowl kickoff begins Saturday afternoon in Glendale, Arizona, with the action continuing when New Year’s Eve kicks off with the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
Will Georgia be the first repeat champion of the college football playoff era (and first program since Alabama’s 2011-12)? Will Michigan move past last year’s blowout loss to Georgia and finish the job this season? What about TCU? It is the only one of the four teams to make its CFP debut. Will it continue its Cinderella story? And then there’s the state of Ohio. Will the Buckeyes take the second chance they’re being given and bounce back from a second straight loss to Michigan by beating the defending champions?
We’ll find out soon enough, but for now we’re trying to figure out what’s going to happen in Saturday night’s CFP semi-finals.
Fiesta Bowl 2022: (2) Michigan vs. (3) TCU
Featured Game | Michigan Wolverines vs. TCU Horned Frogs
spread: While TCU undoubtedly earned their place in the playoffs, I make no secret of my belief that the Horned Frogs are the “weakest” of the four teams in the field, at least from a performance evaluation standpoint. TCU has played the most one-score games out of the four this season. In fact, the Frogs’ six one-score games were more than the other three teams combined (three). Ohio State played in none. This is a team that found themselves in many close games and did the smart things good teams did to win them.
That’s not a swipe at TCU, but it’s a concern about what might happen if the Frogs get caught up in elite competition, and that’s exactly what you’re up against if you’ve gotten this far. While TCU played a stronger overall plan than Michigan, what you do with the competition you face is not considered often enough. Michigan may have played a weak non-conference list, but it also beat Penn State and Ohio State by a combined 46 points. You can argue that TCU hasn’t played as well against anyone this season as these teams. Michigan is built similarly to Kansas State in terms of their playing style and philosophy, and we’ve seen just how much trouble the Wildcats have caused the Frogs this season. The difference? Michigan is far more talented. I can’t trust TCU to keep up in this case. Selection: Michigan -7.5
In total: The choice here is cut and dried. If you’re expecting Michigan to win, it probably will, as it will slow down TCU’s offensive attack, resulting in undershoots in most cases. If you think TCU will win, the frogs probably need to score at least 30 points and make it some kind of gunfight. This means that the over is more likely to be hit. The Wolverines are the better team and the one that wins a lot more often. Since this is a playoff game, you can also expect Michigan to go conservative as it builds a lead and the clock ticks, as many of its opponents have, once it takes control of a game this season. Tip: Under 58.5
2022 Peach Bowl: (1) Georgia vs. (4) Ohio State
Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs versus the Ohio State Buckeyes
spread: The 2022 Georgia Bulldogs aren’t as good as last year’s national title winners, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t still the best team in the country. They present a particular matchup problem for Ohio State. The Buckeyes don’t often lose games or fight, but when they do, there is an issue. Last season, Oregon had a physical defensive front that created problems for Ohio State’s offense, pressured CJ Stroud and forced him to deviate from the script. Stroud struggles when forced to improvise. Michigan did the same late in the season and again this year.
Well, there aren’t many defensive fronts in the country that are as good or better than Georgia, and the Bulldogs’ defense will put pressure on Stroud. The Georgia defense ranks only 41st in the country in terms of pressure rate, but that’s more of a by-product of not having to pound opponents often this year. In big games, Georgia has taken things up a notch, and they know what it takes to slow this Ohio State offense. We’ll likely see Georgia blitz more often than we’ve seen before, putting Stroud in awkward situations. On the other side of the ball, we’ve seen teams like Penn State, Michigan and Maryland cause problems for Ohio State’s secondary school. While Georgia isn’t the strongest passing attacker in the country, it’s better than most think and could cause trouble. Selection: Georgia -6.5
In total: Will he really pick favorite and bottom for both games? He sure is! This is the same situation as with the Fiesta Bowl. If you think Georgia wins, it will be a lower-scoring affair, with the Bulldogs choking out a powerful Buckeyes offense. If you think Ohio State is causing a stir, it’s probably because it’s doing to Georgia’s defense what Alabama did to it in the 2021 season. After all, Ohio State is one of the few teams with the quarterback and wide receiver talent to take advantage of potential weaknesses in Georgia’s secondary league. Problem is, we’ve seen what happens to Ohio State when they face teams that can punch them in the mouth. Choice: Under 62
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