Saudi Arabia appears to be banking on Donald Trump’s return to office by refusing to help the US punish Russia for invading Ukraine and investing $2 billion in a new untested investment fund launched by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is administered.
In an attempt to persuade Riyadh to increase oil production in order to slash prices by up to 30% and thereby slash Russian government revenues, the Biden government is looking for ways to reassure the Saudi government that it is aware of the security of the kingdom.
The White House on Thursday said it was an “iron-clad promise from the president” and the Pentagon is reportedly working on a draft of a new statement on the US-Saudi security arrangements, but observers say it’s likely the firm guarantees aren’t meet the demands of the Saudis and other Gulf States.
The kingdom’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly declined to take a call from Joe Biden last month, showing displeasure with the government’s restrictions on arms sales; what he saw as an inadequate response to attacks by Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia in Yemen; his publication of a report on the 2018 killing by the Saudi regime of dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi; and Biden’s previous refusal to negotiate personally with the crown prince.
Instead, Prince Mohammed is showing signs that he is banking on Trump’s return to office in 2024 and the resumption of the Trump administration’s cozy relationship with Riyadh.
It has called for an investigation into the huge investment by Prince Mohammed-controlled Saudi Public Investment Fund in Affinity Partners, a private equity firm founded by Jared Kushner months after he left the White House and started his job as special adviser to Trump, his father-in-law.
In so doing, the kingdom’s de facto ruler ignored warnings from the Saudi fund’s own advisory board. It was concerned about Affinity’s inexperience: Kushner had worked in the real estate industry prior to his tenure in the White House, and his track record of investing was not widely considered to be particularly good. According to a New York Times report, she feared that the new company’s due diligence on operations was “unsatisfactory in all aspects” and that it was charging “excessive” fees.
“It boils down to something very simple. The Saudis — meaning Mohammed bin Salman — chose Trump over Biden, and they’re sticking to their bet,” said Bruce Riedel, a former senior CIA official who is director of the Brookings Institution intelligence project.
“This is not an unreasonable suggestion. Trump gave them anything they wanted: full support in Yemen, support for the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, whatever they wanted in terms of access to the United States.”
John Jenkins, a former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said: “I guess [the crown prince] Is banking on Republicans winning big in the midterms and then retaking the presidency – with or without Trump.”
He added: “He probably thinks Biden is politically weak and can therefore afford to tease him. That not only sends a signal to the Dems, but also to the Republican Party. And, judging by the debate raging in DC policy circles on these issues, it’s working.”
The Saudi embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
Top Democrats reacted furiously to the revelation of Saudi investment in Kushner’s fund. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Justice Department to “really look closely” at whether the agreement was illegal.
senator Chris Murphy tweeted: “Just because the staggering corruption is in the public eye doesn’t mean it is staggering.”
Joe Biden in Riyadh in 2011 after the death of Crown Prince Sultan. Photo: AFP/Getty ImagesIn the early months of the Trump administration, Kushner was instrumental in switching his support from former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef to the much younger Mohammed bin Salman, with whom the president’s son-in-law had largely developed a relationship, according to news service WhatsApp. After the Khashoggi murder, Kushner was also the crown prince’s most outspoken advocate.
As for the Biden administration, there are advocates in placating the Saudi crown prince in pursuit of the overarching goal of lowering oil prices – because of its impact on both the Kremlin’s coffers and the politically sensitive price at the pump .
“Right now there is a real argument that you can befriend anyone who is not now Russia,” noted a European diplomat. The Pentagon recently held meetings to draft a statement on US security agreements with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
However, Kirsten Fontenrose, former senior director for the Gulf at the National Security Council, said whatever the government comes up with is unlikely to come close to regional demands for security guarantees, which comply with the provisions of Article 5 of NATO resemble mutual defense.
“Recently, there has been a big push for Article 5 from a lot of these countries,” said Fontenrose, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But there’s no chance they’ll get it.”
The Pentagon declined to comment on its reported work on reshaping the Gulf security arrangements. A spokesman, Army Major Rob Lodewick, said: “The Department of Defense remains committed to improving Saudi Arabia’s security from serious external threats.
“We do this through defense cooperation, arms transfers and arms trade, exercises, training and exchanges, and engagement in human rights and civilian harm reduction.”
Even if the government were to offer such guarantees, there is no way such a deal would win the approval of Congress, where the progressive wing of the Democratic Party wants Biden to crack down on Riyadh, particularly given its lack of cooperation on oil exploration and Russia.
“The US continues to supply certain types of equipment. You’ve announced several gun sales in the last year alone. There’s logistical support and maintenance,” said Seth Binder, director of advocacy at Project on Middle East Democracy. “All of these things should be on the table in my opinion, especially if this Saudi regime continues to increase this public pressure on the Biden administration.”
However, many observers believe Mohammed will not be swayed by courtship or threats as high oil prices boost his budget while he waits for a more compliant government.
“I don’t see much changing. The Saudis have decided to go with Putin and the level of oil production they want, and the global economy is adjusting to that,” Reidel said. “Neither do I think there’s much leeway for Biden … I think there are strong forces against it.”