Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins this Sunday, January 1st, his third term, the most crucial of his political career. He knows his image in history will depend on what he does or doesn’t do over the next four years. The challenges he has to face from Monday are enormous. Outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro is leaving behind scorched earth on such important issues as political coexistence, the quality of democracy, international relations and the fight against climate change. Latin America’s largest democracy also bears the burden of an economy that isn’t growing enough, adding more and more poor people. More than 30 million people are starving in Brazil and are dependent on state aid.
The fight against hunger
Fighting poverty will be high on the new President’s agenda. Lula ended his second term with 20 million fewer poor, an achievement that largely explains the dedication he is experiencing in the north of the country, where the Labor Party concentrates most of its welfare work. It will not be easy for him to repeat that. The Brazilian economy is no longer getting the tailwind of the resource boom of the beginning of the century and there is no money left. Lula has asked Congress to authorize it to raise the spending ceiling to fatten relief supplies. On the night of his victory over Bolsonaro on October 30, he said he would not accept “that millions of men, women and children in this country have nothing to eat or that they are consuming fewer calories and less protein than they need to .”
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The economy in crisis
An economy in The outcome of the fight against hunger is linked to the success of economic management. Lula handed command to Fernando Haddad, the man who agreed to replace him as presidential candidate in 2018 while he was incarcerated. Brazil suffers from the same economic constraints as most countries: high interest rates, rising inflation and a tightening budget. Haddad expects the near-term design of a new tax framework and the need for tax reform that will help redistribute income in one of the continent’s most unequal countries.
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political polarization
At the root of all these challenges is an unprecedented political polarization in Brazil. On the eve of Lula’s inauguration, hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters were still camped outside the army headquarters in Brasilia, demanding military intervention. Breaking with tradition of passing the presidential sash to his successor, Bolsonaro flew to Orlando, United States, on Friday on an official plane and the presidential entourage, to get as far away as possible from events planned in the capital.
A Bolsonaro protester on the Helio Smidt highway against the November 1st election results. CARLA CARNIEL (Portal)
Brazilians today are more armed and tough on issues like abortion or gender equality. Lula will have to rebuild this wounded social fabric. And he is aware of it. In the triumphant night speech, he asked for help “to live democratically and in harmony and to restore peace between families”. “People don’t want to fight anymore. It’s time to lay down the weapons that should never have been wielded. Guns kill and we choose life,” he said.
A Congress without a majority
The political version of social polarization will be found in Congress, where Labor and its allies lack a majority. Lula won by a handful of votes and will rule with a strengthened Bolsonarianism. Tradition has it that votes in the Brazilian parliament come at a price, but in the face of an opposition that has promised to be very tough, deals will depend on Lula’s famous negotiating skills.
After years of clashing with Bolsonaro, the president will also have to restore harmony with another branch of the state, the judiciary. “It is necessary to resume dialogue with the legislature and the judiciary. Without attempts to exorbit, intervene, control, co-opt, but try to rebuild harmonious and republican coexistence between the three powers,” Lula said in October.
back to the world
When it comes to reconstruction, Lula faces a major challenge on the outside. Bolsonaro’s government is cutting ties with all South American countries and even with China, Brazil’s main trading partner. The good harmony Itamaraty cultivated with the United States exploded after Donald Trump’s defeat. Bolsonaro delayed the obligatory congratulations to Joe Biden, the victor, as long as he could after defending – and later importing – the Trumpist thesis of voter fraud.
Lula’s turn came immediately, even before she took office. Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro, who was banned from entering Brazil under Bolsonaro, has been invited to attend the acts of investiture this Sunday. The new foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, former ambassador to Argentina, the United States and the UN, announced that there would be no blacklists of countries in Itamaraty and promised to prioritize relations with Washington.
Nicolás Maduro, Lula, then-President Dilma Rousseff, in front of the coffin of Hugo Chávez, accompanied by Rosa Virginia, the Venezuelan leader’s daughter, in March 2013. VENEZUELA PRESIDENTIAL (Portal)
The Amazon in danger
The ultimate goal is to reposition Brazil on the international stage after a long period of increasing isolation. Lula will play the dialogue card like he did in his previous reigns. It will also have to solve the environmental agenda, the quality of which is becoming increasingly relevant in diplomacy.
Bolsonaro was a climate change denier and torpedoed the official Amazon conservation policy as best he could. Wanting to turn the tide, Lula appointed Marina Silva, a well-known ecologist who had held the position between 2003 and 2008 as Minister for the Environment, when she left him, angry at the government’s drift. With Silva in the cabinet, part of the first Lula is back.
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