- In 2022, Saudi Arabia sought closer ties with Russia and China.
- At the same time, relations with its traditional ally, the United States, have been turbulent.
- Experts say Saudi Arabia is trying to find a new path amid waning US influence.
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In early December, China’s President Xi Jinping met with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh to announce a “new era” in relations between the countries.
They announced far-reaching new trade and energy deals and alignment on issues ranging from the war in Yemen to digital infrastructure and space exploration.
It was the culmination of years of alliance-building between Beijing and Riyadh in their increasingly brazen opposition to US global dominance.
“Saudi Arabia and China find each other useful. They have significant commercial relationships and they expect them to grow,” analyst Jon Alterman said in an interview with Insider.
“While their concerns about US global leadership differ widely, they both agree that a unipolar world led by the United States would undermine their interests,” said Altermann, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
For China, the US stands in the way of further expanding its global influence.
For Saudi Arabia, it sees economic opportunities and the possibility of taking on a greater global role where multiple major powers compete.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attend the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires November 30, 2018. LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images
And it’s not just China that Saudi Arabia has moved closer to that raises US concerns, but also another authoritarian superpower and a US adversary: Russia.
Back in October, Riyadh enraged the Biden government by announcing along with Russia that it would cut oil production. The deal reportedly came as a shock to Biden administration officials, who believed they had reached a secret deal with Saudi Arabia to increase production to ease domestic inflation.
The deal also thwarted attempts by Biden to choke off Russia’s revenue from international oil sales, part of the wave of sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia has refused to join sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, despite condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at a UN summit in October in a possible concession to the US.
US criticism infuriates Riyadh
To top it off, Crown Prince Mohammed has made no secret of his disdain for Biden, reportedly mocking Biden privately and telling The Atlantic in March he doesn’t care if Biden misunderstands him.
The lavish reception he gave Xi contrasted with the muted reception Biden received when he visited in July.
Analysts say US criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and suppression of national dissent infuriates Riyadh.
Biden’s promise during the 2020 election campaign to make the kingdom a “pariah” over the assassination of dissident Jamal Khashoggi was also met with anger by Saudi Arabian leaders.
Crown Prince Mohammed has more affinity with the ideology of his fellow campaigners Xi or Putin than with the United States, Alterman said.
“They share the belief that significant liberalization of domestic life would lead to social chaos, moral collapse and political polarization,” Alterman said.
“The Saudi leadership is much more comfortable with Saudi Arabia following the Chinese path of tightly run politics, strong state-owned enterprises and limited social liberties than following the US model,” he said.
Xi and Putin are silent on Saudi human rights abuses, and Crown Prince Mohammed has largely retaliated by remaining silent on China and Russia’s domestic repression, said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics.
Of particular note is Crown Prince Mohammed’s silence on China’s brutal treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province.
The US and several Western allies have called China’s oppression a genocide, but Saudi Arabia has not intervened, despite its role as the birthplace and spiritual center of Islam.
“Saudi Arabia, China and Russia all believe in the ‘authoritarian stability’ model. This factor helps explain why Riyadh never pressures the Chinese government over the human rights record in Xinjiang, even though the King of Saudi Arabia is officially the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques [situated in Mecca and Medina]’ said Cafiero.
“These governments prioritize stability over individual rights, and their approaches to security are remarkably aligned,” he said.
Analysts say Saudi Arabia not only shares ideological affinities with Russia and China, but sees relations with them as sensible diplomatic and economic sense.
The nation is essentially hedging its bet, responding to shifting rhetoric from Washington, DC and dwindling US involvement in the Middle East.
“The Saudis fear that relying entirely on the United States, whose long-term intentions they distrust and whose attitude toward Saudi Arabia has changed dramatically between the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, is reckless,” Alterman said.
But for all their differences, the US and Saudi Arabia share common interests that will ensure the alliance’s survival in the near future, analysts generally agree.
Saudi Arabia relies on US military protection and arms sales, while for the US the Saudis are a key ally in a turbulent region and a crucial counterweight against Iran.
“The United States remains Saudi Arabia’s most important strategic partner. There is no country, or collection of countries, that can protect the country from external threats like the United States,” Alterman said.