NEW DELHI, Jan. 3.- India could overtake China to become the world’s most populous country by 2023. The UN forecasts that India’s population will surpass China’s by mid-April.
The Asian giants already have more than 1.4 billion people and have represented more than a third of the world’s population for more than 70 years. China’s population is expected to shrink next year. Last year 10.6 million people were born, slightly more than the number of deaths, thanks to a rapid decline in the birth rate.
India’s fertility rate has also fallen significantly in recent decades, from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2 today, but the rate of decline has been slower. China halved its population growth rate from 2 percent in 1973 to 1.1 percent in 1983. India, for its part, experienced rapid population growth of nearly 2 percent per year for much of the second half of the last century.
Over time, mortality rates fell, life expectancy rose, and incomes rose. More people, especially in cities, have access to clean drinking water and modern sewage systems.
India launched a family planning program in 1952 and first introduced a national population policy in 1976, when China was busy reducing its birth rate, the BBC comments. The drop in birth rates would have been faster for India if politicians had been more proactive. All subsequent governments have also been cautious about family planning, says Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics.
East Asian countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand, which started population programs much later than India, achieved lower birth rates and reduced infant and maternal mortality rates, the expert said. In short, the fact that India has a larger population than China is no longer a concern, demographers argue.
Rising incomes and improved access to health and education have helped Indian women have fewer children than before, effectively flattening the growth curve. In 17 of the 22 states and federally administered territories, fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level (two births per woman). The decline in birth rates has been faster in southern India than in the more populous north.
However, if India becomes more populous than China, it could, for example, strengthen its claim to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which has five permanent members including China. India is a founding member of the UN and has always insisted that its claim to a permanent seat is fair. India’s population is expected to peak around 2060 at between 1.6 and 1.8 billion.
The United Nations (UN) stated that the Earth reached 8,000 million people in November 2022, just 11 years after reaching 7,000.