The last day of 2022, the first of the new year, and the celebrations that may have taken place in between, tasted bitter and smelled of explosives in Ukraine. The country has once again drowned under successive waves of cruise missiles, then Shahed-136 drones, those famous “flying mopeds” that Moscow has ordered in large numbers from Iran.
These are the traces of Russian cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea about an hour ago.
An hour later, on New Year’s Eve, these missiles were killing and wounding innocent civilians across Ukraine.
The Russian Federation is a terrorist organization. pic.twitter.com/EGu61bgkDM
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) December 31, 2022
Though it may last for some time, the Ukrainian people’s nightmare may have passed its most critical stage. We’ve been talking about this for a few months, but the stockpile of Russian missiles appears to be at an all-time low and the country, hit by economic and technological sanctions imposed by the West, is struggling to manufacture new ones.
The remains of some of the cruise missiles recently launched by Moscow indicate that they were manufactured in the last quarter of 2022. As the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, recently claimed, this seems to indicate that these are the latest cartridges for these formidable weapons.
Ukrainian military intelligence says investigation of missile debris suggests Russian military is using Russian-made missiles in Q4 2022. https://t.co/MEJrqUUeZQ
– Alex Melikishvili (@A_Melikishvili) January 2, 2023
The Russian Federation has only missiles left for two massive strikes against them #Ukrainesaid the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian military intelligence service Kyrylo Budanov on 🇺🇦 TV.https://t.co/6TaleTpkqy
— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) January 1, 2023
The Kremlin also (and especially) uses S-300 projectiles on civilian structures, an anti-aircraft system not originally intended for this purpose. In late November, British intelligence also hinted that Moscow was removing the nuclear warheads from some of its old missiles for delivery to Ukraine, adding to the mass impact of the bombings and the complex task of air defenses.
Tehran could also supplement Russia’s ending stocks by supplying some of its own ballistic or cruise missiles. Meanwhile, Russian hopes seem to be pinned on the famous Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, which Iran is supplying to the Kremlin in large numbers and which it appears to have decided to produce itself thanks to close technical exchanges negotiated with Tehran.
But the threat posed just a few months ago by these planes, which could not have operated for a while due to low temperatures, seems to be fading. Russia is being hit more and more deeply in its countries and may want to step up their efforts in the coming weeks or even months.
drama drones
Despite a certain psychological effect on civilians, it can be in vain. In his New Year’s speech, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy warned of an increase in these attacks, but at the same time promised that the country would continue to strengthen its anti-aircraft defenses with the help of its allies.
In particular, a few weeks ago Ukraine announced that it was working on its own “anti-drone drones” that could rid the country’s skies of these Shahed-136, whose slowness – compensated by their numbers because they are commissioned in swarms overwhelm defenses – can make them easy targets, everything else is relative.
While waiting to have its own systems – and not counting the Patriot anti-missile batteries, which will take a few months to deploy and will have a completely different purpose than these little drones – Ukraine can count on the defenses it already has and on these leave them received, such as the very effective NASAMS.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, 84 Iranian Shahed suicide drones were shot down in 48 hours in 2023 #Kievcompared to 500 since the wave began in September #UkraineWar
— Stephane Siohan (@stefsiohan) January 3, 2023
And it works quite well, very well in fact. According to the country’s authorities and President Zelensky, all Shahed drones sent by Russia between December 31, 2022 and the first day of the following year (84 in total) could be shot down before falling on critical infrastructure and civilian homes in the country. A total of 500 of these flying mopeds have already been sent from Moscow to Ukraine, with an efficiency that is steadily decreasing as Kyiv organizes its resistance and defense.
The country has also suffered less in the energy sector this time. As for his determination against the Russian invader, it did not diminish it one iota. According to the latest polls, and despite these waves of terrorist bombings or the horrors experienced everywhere, civilians continue to support their government’s military action at all costs and have no intention of giving up an inch of territory.
A poll cited by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and quoted by The Wall Street Journal estimates that 85% of Ukrainians opposed any territorial transfers in December, up from 87% in September and 82% in May. If you try the map of exhaustion, it seems that Russia is running out of steam.