Carlos Correa is the link connecting my two biggest stories in New York baseball as we enter 2023:
1. How far will Steve Cohen go financially and in character to win a title in 2023?
2. How good are Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe?
Cohen didn’t feel that a $360 million paycheck differentiated the 2023 Mets from the 2022 version, as he retained only Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassit and Taijuan Walker through Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and replaced Jose Quintana. So he agreed to a 12-year, $315 pact with Correa — though it remains uncertain if that will ever translate into an actual signed deal.
Correa is the only character to have been part of what is arguably the top two free-agent shortstop classes in history over the past two offseasons. The Yankees shunned those two groups, proclaiming they had not one but two high-end shortstops on the verge of a breakthrough.
The Mets trying to strike a deal with Correa after the Yankees ignored him in two separate offseasons sets the backdrop for what intrigues me most about New York clubs in the New Year.
Cohen has shown his willingness to break down all previous barriers to payroll and luxury tax payments. If the Mets strike a deal with Correa, their payroll spend for luxury tax purposes will be approximately $385 million, and the tax on it will bring total spend to half a billion dollars — though trades involving Carlos Carrasco and Eduardo Escobar likely do follow and bring that down to record numbers by far.
The Mets and Carlos Correa are yet to finalize a 12-year, $315 deal with AP
What we don’t know is how Cohen would handle failure now. His picture of his day job — the hedge fund life that produced the money to buy the Mets and support those kinds of payroll expenses — shows no underperforming lead patient.
Cohen, in his brief tenure as a Mets owner, has demonstrated an ability to absorb and learn new information — perhaps most notably that his responsibilities to the Mets require a different kind of patience and diplomacy than his fund. For example, in his burgeoning days as a baseball owner, Cohen was a regular presence on Twitter, and on Aug. 18, 2021, when the Mets were on an offensive funk, losing just eight of nine to drop out of contention, Cohen tweeted, “It is hard to understand how professional thugs can be so unproductive. The best teams are more disciplined. The slugging and OPS numbers don’t lie.”
Mets owner Steve Cohen has spent heavily this offseason. Sipa USA via AP
This wasn’t exactly a team with a $500 million price tag and runaway expectations. Still, it was the most critical thing Cohen publicly witnessed during his tenure as owner. It was part of a social media presence that unsettled some potential candidates to run baseball operations and kept them from being considered for the Mets’ job.
Cohen has advanced in this area. He tweets much less frequently (like just once this offseason to announce Diaz’s re-signing) and in more mundane ways. Its editions have revived memories of George Steinbrenner. But we didn’t see that theatrics. Maybe we never will.
But I do wonder about Cohen’s patience when this Mets club is say 35-35 after 70 games and is looking up to the Braves and Phillies. No one has ever spent that much, and I suspect if more treats become available during the season, Cohen would be willing to spend even more. But what will the price be? What will he do if the expenses prove unjustified? Perhaps he remains patient and publicly stoic. I’m intrigued to find out.
As for the Yankees, probably the most obvious question is what Aaron Judge, who’s armed with a $360 million contract, will do after hitting 62 homers for an encore? But Judge keeps talking about winning championships, and in the short term I’m not sure how the Yankees can do that unless Peraza and Volpe are like Judge — huge success stories out of the system.
Brian Cashman and the Yankees have ignored chasing Carlos Correa in free agency for the past two offseasons. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST
With shift limitations, pickoff throw limitations, and larger bases, there will be a need for more athleticism in midfield and bases. With the Yankees failing to pitch well postseason (especially that of the Astros), new offensive blood is needed.
Despite all this, the importance of Peraza and Volpe will increase. And the importance only increases when you consider all the shortstops the Yankees have avoided over the last two offseasons while waiting for Peraza and Volpe. The ticket must now pay off.
But in the past 20 years, the Yankees have not fully enjoyed the benefits of the touted classes of prospects – from Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy; to the Killer Bs (Manuel Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman); to the positional influx of Judge, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Jackson (Clint) Frazier, Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres.
Oswald PerazaUSA TODAY Sports
Anthony VolpeMLB Photos via Getty Images
They now believe they are sitting with a potential group poised to make an impact, with Peraza, Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera leading the way, followed by Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Everson Pereira, Trey Sweeney and Austin Wells. How many will make it? How many are inflated for trades?
The Yankees haven’t exactly shown the ability to develop positional players with sustained excellence in recent years. Among those who originally signed with the Yankees and played in the majors last year, Judge had the best wins over substitutions at 11.4 (fan graphs). The next group was Jorge Mateo, Thairo Estrada, Kyle Higashioka, Cabrera, Rob Refsnyder and Sanchez who combined for 11.3 WAR.
General manager Brian Cashman has detailed an expected spring open shortstop contest between Peraza, Volpe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. How deflationary would it be to see Kiner-Falefa return to shortstop after failing to hold that position in a postseason that the Yankees embarrassingly played the position on a daily basis?
They were eliminated in an ALCS sweep by the Astros, who replaced Correa with rookie Jeremy Peña, who was ALCS and World Series MVP. The Yankees haven’t signed Correa in either of the last two offseasons. They also didn’t sign Corey Seager and Trea Turner, among others. They have insisted that answers come.
So as we enter 2023, this is one of my two big New York questions.