The top three teams in the NFL this season have each lost three games, according to the record this season. The second-best trio lost 25 percent of the time, according to the record.
As Saturday’s playoffs begin, there are no perfect teams in the league, but there are plenty of strong ones. Some who didn’t look like the Bengals and Jaguars earlier this season leaned on their identities and won their divisions. Others who looked stellar at the start of the 2022 season, like the Cowboys and Dolphins, are in but bring as many questions as they have wins.
The following is a breakdown of each team’s odds of winning their conference championship and the Super Bowl, by conference, based on The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s model.
AFC playoff projection
team | win conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
32.9 percent | 16.9 percent | |
23.7 percent | 13.0 percent | |
13.4 percent | 6.8 percent | |
11.2 percent | 5.7 percent | |
9.2 percent | 4.6 percent | |
5.6 percent | 2.6 percent | |
4.0 percent | 1.4 percent |
Mock’s model sees Kansas City as the team to beat in the AFC, as they are expected to reach the Super Bowl about a third of the time, despite losing outright to both Buffalo and Cincinnati in the regular season. The Chargers have been beaten this season, but going to Jacksonville is a very winnable game. In fact, Mock has them win the AFC just two percent less than the Bengals. This model does not take into account that Lamar Jackson is 100 percent certain to play for the Ravens in the wild card round.
NFC playoff projection
team | win conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
31.9 percent | 15.4 percent | |
23.8 percent | 12.3 percent | |
11.3 percent | 5.7 percent | |
9.2 percent | 4.8 percent | |
9.0 percent | 4.7 percent | |
7.7 percent | 3.3 percent | |
7.1 percent | 2.7 percent |
The Eagles didn’t miss the first-round bye on Sunday, going into the playoffs as the overwhelming NFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl by 31.9 percent. The 49ers are in second place with 23.8 percent, but interestingly, the fifth-place Cowboys and fourth-place Buccaneers both have a better chance of becoming NFC champions than the third-place Vikings because of that Model Minnesota has a chance of making it to the Super Bowl at just 9.0 percent. The model places the Vikings closer to an average league team than a top 10 team.
full field projection
team | win conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
32.9 percent | 16.9 percent | |
31.9 percent | 15.4 percent | |
23.7 percent | 13.0 percent | |
23.8 percent | 12.3 percent | |
13.4 percent | 6.8 percent | |
11.3 percent | 5.7 percent | |
11.2 percent | 5.7 percent | |
9.2 percent | 4.8 percent | |
9.0 percent | 4.7 percent | |
9.2 percent | 4.6 percent | |
7.7 percent | 3.3 percent | |
7.1 percent | 2.7 percent | |
5.6 percent | 2.6 percent | |
4.0 percent | 1.4 percent |
(Photo: Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)