According to 24 war simulations conducted, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would have devastating consequences for all warring parties involved. However, Taiwan would remain a democratic island republic.
An invasion of Taiwan would likely not end in victory for China – and would result in significant losses for all parties to the conflict. That’s the conclusion of a report published Monday by the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington. According to the report, based on 24 war simulations conducted, if China attacks Taiwan “under most scenarios, it will remain democratic and independent”.
US position is damaged
However, the price to be paid would be enormous for all states involved. China considers the democratic island republic to be part of the People’s Republic, while Taiwan, on the other hand, has long considered itself an independent state. Recently, tensions in the region have increased.
Literally, the report read: “The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of troops. These losses would damage America’s global position for years to come.”
The Chinese would therefore sink two American aircraft carriers in most of the simulations performed. Furthermore, the United States would have to deal with between ten and 20 more warships as a loss. According to the scenarios, 3,200 American soldiers could be killed in just three weeks.
He also said that while Taiwan’s military would not be completely defeated, it would be severely weakened. They would have to defend an island where basic services have collapsed.
China’s Biggest Losses
For China, however, an invasion would result in much greater losses. Not only would the attack fail. According to the simulation, around 10,000 Chinese soldiers could die and tens of thousands end up in captivity, according to the CSIS report. Furthermore, according to the estimate, the People’s Liberation Army would lose 155 aircraft and 138 warships. The country’s navy would be “in ruins”.