Population growth continues in almost all regions of the province, new data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) shows. Even in Montreal, where population growth has been slowed by the pandemic, the pace appears to be picking up again, albeit at a still significantly slower rate than before. On the north coast, however, the decline continues.
Posted 9:31am Updated 12:14pm
Montreal rises but loses again
Between July 1, 2021 and last July 1, metropolitan Québec recorded a population increase of “about 14,000 people in the period 2021-2022, which corresponds to a growth rate of 6.9 per mille,” according to the institute’s report. It explains that “this rate is low compared to several regions and contrasts with the high growth Montreal was seeing before the pandemic.” Nevertheless, “this slight increase marks a resumption of growth after the sharp slowdown in 2019-2020 and the decline of 47,000 people in 2020-2021”. “14,000 people, compared to the rest of Quebec, that’s actually relatively little. But the years before the pandemic were also exceptional in Montreal, with very high growth. The metropolis really acted as a locomotive for the rest of Quebec,” explains demographer Martine St-Amour.
Despite this, Montreal is still losing immigrants to other regions, with net losses of “34,500 people in its migratory exchanges” with the rest of the province in 2021-2022. However, if this deficit remains “one of the largest on record” since 2001, ie since this data became available, it is “less than the record deficit of 48,300 people in 2020-2021”. One thing remains: the metropolis has taken in more permanent immigrants than in recent years. The ISQ projects that Montreal will lose immigrants to the regions by 2041.
“Particularly pronounced” increase in Quebec
In the Capitale-Nationale, a very different picture emerges: almost 11,000 people have joined the total population, a growth that even exceeds that of the years before the pandemic. “2021-2022 is the year of recovery. And that is clearly true of the capital, which has increased its profits compared to other regions. Incidentally, as we see for Montreal, there has also been an increase in international migration gains,” explains Ms St-Amour. In addition, the Québec City region, with Laval, is the only region that has seen an improvement in its internal migration balance and has even “increased its profits even more significantly”. Outaouais and Montérégie also have enviable results in this area.
The palm in the Laurentians, Estrie and Lanaudière
The Lanaudière, Laurentides and Estrie regions saw the strongest population growth in 2021-2022, with an average growth rate of around 16 people per thousand inhabitants, a number that is still lower than in 2020, before the pandemic shock. Lanaudière is particularly successful with a population growth of almost 1.7% in just one year. This region has a particularly young population, with 22.4% under 20, one of the highest rates in Quebec. “You also have to understand that these regions are primarily about significant increases compared to Montreal. But the positive natural increase – i.e. the gap between births and deaths – also plays a major role. We will see whether this trend continues as the population ages,” analyzes the ISQ demographer.
The North Shore, still a big loser
If it is increasing everywhere, it is decreasing in a single region of the province: the north coast, which has suffered a decrease, albeit small, of 0.13% of its population, equivalent to a decrease of about a hundred inhabitants. “Since 2001, the population of this region has been declining almost every year. The North Shore has almost always lost population to other regions, and international migration does not play a very large role there. Above all, the population is aging rapidly and births are declining,” notes Martine St-Amour. The numbers are indeed clear: the North Shore “records more deaths than births for the first time in 2021”, the natural increase is currently -45 people.
In Chaudière-Appalaches, in Saguenay
Finally, the Mauricie and Chaudière-Appalaches regions have benefited from accelerated population growth in recent years, a trend that will continue in 2021-2022. The growth rate of these regions exceeded 13 per thousand. However, the population growth in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean and in the Bas-Saint-Laurent has not been so strong, but it has intensified in recent years after a phase of decline of several years. . For their part, the Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine remained under the cultivation areas.
With the Canadian Press