Abandon General Sergei Surovikin! Three months after his appointment as head of operations in Ukraine and the decision to evacuate the city of Kherson, he has just been replaced by General Valery Guerasimov, who is none other than the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. And this at a time when battles are raging in Bakhmout and Soledar [région de Donetsk, annexée par la Russie, ndlr]the paramilitary group Wagner plays an increasingly important role.
This change, announced by Moscow on January 11 and justified by the “expansion of missions” and the “need” for “closer interaction” between the various components of the Russian armed forces, heralds the launch of a new major offensive in Ukraine? In any case, this can be seen as a signal in this direction… And, from a Kiev point of view, pleads for increased Western military aid.
On the same day, Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian Presidency, called for the delivery of missiles with a range of more than 100 km [ce que les États-Unis ont jusqu’à présent refusé, en bridant les systèmes M142 HIMARS livrés à Kiev]. They “will allow us to significantly speed up the liberation of the territories [occupés]he said.
Air defense capabilities are at the top of the list of needs expressed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces… Like western-designed main battle tanks. And this motion is on the table practically at the beginning of the war. On January 10, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba did it again during the visit of his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock to Kharkiv. “The longer such a decision is delayed, the more casualties there will be, the more civilian deaths there will be,” he said.
While Ms. Baerbock has already expressed her support for Berlin’s delivery of Leopard 2 to the Ukrainian army, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is opposed. At least for now. In the end, at most, he agreed to give up forty armored personnel carriers [VCI] Marders in Kyiv, without really knowing where they are being taken … At the same time, France announced the dispatch of AMX-10 RC tanks [le nombre reste à préciser] and the United States pledged fifty Bradley IFVs… And Strykers may follow.
After abandoning its T-72 tanks inherited from the Soviet past, Poland recently let it be known that it was studying the possibility of sending some of its 240 Leopard 2s to Ukraine… but on the condition that it would not be the only one this does. to do … and that the deliveries of the 366 American M1 Abrams, the 180 K2 and the 820 K2PL ordered in 2022 will not experience any delay.
Obviously, these reflections and the steps taken by Warsaw have progressed … In fact, on January 11, during a visit to Lviv [Ukraine] Polish President Andrzej Duda has said his country is ready to supply a squadron of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian army.
“A squadron of Leopard tanks [soit 14 exemplaires] will be transferred as part of a coalition that is being formed,” affirmed Mr. Duda during a press conference together with his Ukrainian counterparts [Volodymyr Zelenski, ndlr] and lithuanian [Gitanas Nauseda, ndlr]. “As you know, you have to fulfill a whole series of formal requirements, [obtenir] agreements etc. [Aussi]above all, we want it to be an international coalition,” he added.
The approval of Germany, the country of manufacture, is only required for such a shipment of Leopard 2. What will Berlin say?
Be that as it may, Mr. Zelensky welcomed the Polish President’s announcement. But “a state cannot help us,” he said. He also expects a “joint decision” involving other countries that will hand Leopard 2 over to his troops. “I think there will be one today [décision] positive of another state to supply us with modern Western-style tanks,” he added without further detail.