ExxonMobil scientists accurately predicted future global warming back in the late ’70s, a new study has shown — but have nevertheless spent decades trying to discredit research on climate change and its link to fossil fuel burning.
A review of the oil and gas company’s climate projections from 1977 to 2003 produced the discovery, published Thursday in the journal Science.
The review saw researchers douse more than 100 reports from Exxon scientists and found that the company had predicted warming rates to within a fraction of a degree.
The projections – which predict a temperature increase of about 0.20 degrees Fahrenheit every decade – have proven remarkably accurate and are consistent with the increases observed over the above period.
ExxonMobil scientists have been accurately predicting future global warming since the late 1970s, a new study has shown — yet they have spent decades trying to discredit the study of climate change and its link to fossil fuel burning
The review saw researchers douse more than 100 reports from Exxon scientists and found that the company had predicted warming rates to within a fraction of a degree
According to Science, the majority of the internal documents analyzed further confirmed that humans were significant contributors to global warming – despite repeated public denials from the company claiming otherwise.
Exxon, meanwhile, has claimed that the journal misunderstood its early research, and in a statement claimed its understanding of climate change has evolved over the years and isn’t as dry and dry.
Geoffrey Supran, the lead author of the Science study, argued otherwise, saying that until now there had been no in-depth review of Exxon’s own climate modeling data.
Speaking to CNN on Thursday about the bombing findings, the former Harvard University history of science research fellow called the probe “the first-ever systematic assessment of the fossil fuel industry’s climate projections.”
He added to the Associated Press, “We looked not only at the language and rhetoric in these documents, but also at the data. And I’d say, in that sense, our analysis really seals the deal with “Exxon knew.”
Exxon Mobil’s Baton Rouge refinery complex in Louisiana — one of 21 around the world and seven in the US — has been burning fossil fuels for five decades, despite being aware of the potential damage it is doing to Earth’s ozone layer, the authors said of the study said
That phrase has become the war cry of thousands of climate activists who pretended the oil company was ignorant of the damage its 21 refineries around the world are doing to ozone from decades of burning fossil fuels.
Over the past year, the Texas-based company – which is the world’s largest investor-owned oil company – has become the target of numerous lawsuits from such critics who claim the company knew of the damage its oil and gas would do to the climate , but still misled the public by sowing doubts.
Supran said he and his team analyzed more than 100 reports from Exxon scientists before paring them down to 12 particularly powerful documents that contained the company’s incredibly accurate climate projections.
The scientists compared the forecasts with historical data and soon found that around 63 to 83 percent of the forecasts were correct.
The company’s climate modeling — which the report also said was consistent with independent academic models — shows “shocking skill and accuracy,” Supran said Thursday.
“Exxon knew” has become the war cry of thousands of climate activists who have tricked the oil company into feigning ignorance about the damage it’s doing by burning fossil fuels for decades
The study’s author, who started the work at Harvard and is now a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Miami, said the data differs greatly from information previously gleaned from internal documents about the oil company.
It “provides us with compelling evidence that Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming years ago, then flipped it and attacked the science behind it.”
The newspaper quoted then-Exxon CEO Lee Raymond in 1999 as saying that future climate projections “are based on completely unproven climate models, or more often on pure speculation,” while his successor in 2013 called models “incompetent.”
Exxon’s understanding of climate science has evolved along with the broader scientific community, and its four decades of research in climate science have resulted in more than 150 articles, including 50 peer-reviewed publications, company spokesman Todd Spitler said.
“This issue has come up a number of times over the past several years, and our answer is always the same: Those who say ‘Exxon knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Spitler said in an emailed statement.
Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous claims that the company knew its oil and gas harmed the climate
“Some have attempted to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil’s position on climate science and its support for effective policy solutions by reframing well-intentioned internal policy debates as the company’s attempted disinformation campaign.”
Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous lawsuits alleging that the company knew the damage its oil and gas would do to the climate.
In the most recent lawsuit of its kind, New Jersey accused five oil and gas companies, including Exxon, of deceiving the public for decades while knowing about the harmful effects of fossil fuels on the climate.
Similar lawsuits from New York to California have claimed that Exxon and other oil and gas companies launched public relations campaigns to raise doubts about climate change.
In one, then-Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey said that Exxon’s public relations efforts are “reminiscent of the tobacco industry’s long campaign of denial about the dangerous effects of cigarettes.”
Oreskes admitted in the study that she was a paid consultant for a law firm that was suing Exxon in the past, while Supran received a grant from the Rockefeller Family Foundation, which also helped fund groups that were suing Exxon.
The Associated Press receives some foundation support from Rockefeller and retains full control of editorial content.
Oil giants like Exxon and Shell have been accused at congressional hearings in 2021 of spreading climate misinformation, but company executives denied the allegations.
University of Illinois atmospheric scientist emeritus Donald Wuebbles told The Associated Press that he worked with Exxon-funded scientists in the 1980s and wasn’t surprised by what the company knew or by the models. It’s what science and the people who studied the subject knew.
“It was clear that Exxon Mobil knew what was going on,” Wuebbles said. “The problem is that at the same time they were paying people to spread misinformation. That is the big problem.”
There’s a difference between the “hype and spin” that companies do to get you to buy a product, or politicians to get your vote, and an “outright lie…the misrepresentation of factual information, and that’s exactly what Exxon did.” done,” said Oreskes.
Several outside academics and activists said what the study revealed about Exxon’s actions was serious.
“The damage done by Exxon was tremendous,” said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the environment at the University of Michigan.
“They knew that fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, would profoundly alter the planet’s climate in ways that would be costly in terms of human life, human suffering and economic impact.
“And yet, despite this understanding, they choose to publicly downplay the problem of climate change and the dangers it poses to people and the planet.”
Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald asked, “How many thousands (or more) lives have been lost or harmed by Exxon Mobil’s deliberate campaign to obfuscate the science?”
Critics say Exxon’s past actions on climate change undermine its claims that it is committed to reducing emissions.
After InfluenceMap, a company that analyzes data on how companies are affecting the climate crisis, tracked lobbying by Exxon and hundreds of other companies on climate policy, it concluded that Exxon is overall lobbying against the goals of the Paris Agreement and that this the case is currently among the most negative and influential companies holding back climate policy.
“All the research we have suggests that efforts to prevent climate change are ongoing to date, prioritizing the oil and gas industry value chain over the ‘potentially existential’ threat of climate change and not the other way around,” said Faye Holder, Program Manager for InfluenceMap.
“The messages of denial and delay may look different, but the intent is the same.”