A leaked draft security deal being negotiated between China and the Solomon Islands could have ramifications for the security of the entire Pacific. The draft document sets out a broad framework covering deployments of Chinese “police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces” in the Solomon Islands. The deal also allows China to conduct ship visits, provide logistical support, and make stopovers and crossings in the Solomon Islands with Solomon Islands approval.
All Pacific countries have an interest in protecting the region’s stability and security. Pacific Islands Forum members, including Australia, agreed in the 2018 Boe Declaration to address regional security challenges together. A bilateral deal like the one proposed between China and Solomon Islands undermines this sentiment and shows a limited appreciation for the security of the region as a whole by the original author of the leaked draft.
The ambitious scope of this draft agreement is further evidence of China’s strategic intentions in the Pacific. Whether China will ultimately be able to establish a permanent military base in the Solomon Islands is not yet certain – if at all, it is the first step of many towards such a goal. The leaked document is an early draft and Solomon Islands would no doubt seek to scale back the terms of the deal and roll back some of China’s proposed commitments.
Solomon Islands’ increasingly close ties with China since the switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019 remains a highly sensitive issue domestically. The riots that erupted in Honiara in November 2021 were partly sparked by the changeover, although the underlying causes of the riots are domestic rather than geopolitical. Long-standing provincial rivalries, deep economic woes, concerns over the country’s growing ties to China – for which Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has been seen as a key advocate – and a latent anti-Asian sentiment in the community fused into a cocktail of violence and destruction targets the Chinatown district of Honiara. Four lives were lost and over 70 businesses were destroyed.
As the unrest erupted, Sogavare urgently requested help from Australia, which was able to dispatch an emergency response within 24 hours through an existing bilateral security deal much less than what China is trying to secure. Papua New Guinea, Fiji and New Zealand also sent personnel. This was a regional response to a regional problem and is now referred to as the Solomons International Assistance Force. Australia has announced this Extension of this presence until December 2023.
But the attacks on Chinese nationals during the riots have also created a reason for the Chinese government to contribute to security in Honiara. Since then, China has dispatched police liaison officers to train the Royal Solomon Islands police on public order and riot-control equipment. The increased Chinese security presence worried Australian officials, and questions remain about how it will stack up alongside Australia’s decades-long police support programs.
Recently, a Solomon Islands newspaper reported that a large quantity of Chinese replica assault rifles was allegedly brought into the country in the middle of the night on a logging ship. This sparked a flurry of speculation on social media about its true purpose and a statement from Solomon Islands Police that it would investigate how the story came out. Opposition politicians questioned how far China’s security cooperation with the Solomon Islands would go.
This draft contract gives a starting point. But the terms are not finalized yet. The signing of a security deal with China that could spark perceptions of violations of Solomon Islands’ sovereignty would contribute to internal instability at a time when the issues behind last year’s unrest have yet to be resolved. It would also worry other Pacific nations, not just Australia. A document that could overstretch the reach of the Chinese security apparatus in the Solomon Islands would be politically damaging to Prime Minister Sogavare, who would face accusations of capture by the elite in connection with the recent unrest.
The Solomon Islands’ decision to shift its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China met with fierce political opposition in the national parliament and criticism from authorities in Malaita province, who were striving to maintain ties with Taiwan. That this agreement was leaked by an adviser to Malaysian Prime Minister Daniel Suidani and just days before the next session of Solomon’s Parliament is telling.
Sogavare said at the time that moving to China would bring Solomon Islands more economic benefits than if the country had maintained its ties with Taiwan. Since the move, Sogavare has tried to demonstrate to the people of Solomon Islands that the benefits are to come – he’s under delivery pressure after enforcing the decision in 2019, with few perceived benefits beyond what Taiwan already offers .
The scope of the agreement allows China to provide security support for major projects. With more than 90% of the Solomon Islands’ extractive resources by weight going to China in 2019, and a number of major infrastructure projects being promised by Chinese state-owned companies in the country, such a deal could come with Sogavare’s attempt to achieve its promise of increased economic benefits for the Solomon Islands resulting from the switch.
The regional order is changing rapidly and will look very different in the next 10 years. It’s getting fuller. Australia cannot and will not expect to be the only security partner for the Pacific countries. But an increased security presence in the Pacific by a country like China further escalates geopolitical competition in the region. The potentially zero-sum nature of great-power rivalry in the Pacific does not adequately meet the prosperity needs of individual Pacific countries and may undermine their security and stability, particularly those with a recent history of internal conflicts such as the Solomon Islands.
Australia needs to be realistic about an increased Chinese security presence in the Pacific. The challenge for Canberra policymakers will be how to respond to an increasingly crowded Pacific without escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. Australia should remain focused on providing security support that protects the sovereignty of Pacific countries, is transparent and meets the human security priorities that Pacific countries have set for themselves.