- A new report calls on the British government to take action to reduce the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan amid fears it could devastate the global economy
- In Taiwan on Saturday there will be a vote that is crucial for the future of the country
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave 500,000 dead, devastate the global economy and increase Beijing's already growing influence, an expert warned in a new report ahead of a crucial election on Saturday.
Darren Spinck, a researcher specializing in Indo-Pacific studies, warned that such an attack could upend sea and trade routes, disrupt global supply chains and, crucially, destroy Taiwan's semiconductor foundries.
He said this would have a detrimental impact on the British economy, which is increasingly reliant on maintaining cross-strait ties as it continues to push into the Indo-Pacific region after Brexit.
Taiwan produces 90 percent of the world's advanced chips, the brains of all modern electronic devices, and any shortage of semiconductors has been described by experts as “catastrophic” for both the UK and the global economy.
Additionally, Spinck warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would allow Beijing's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to “project its power past Taiwan in the first island chain and north toward Japan” and into the second island chain.
The human cost would also be devastating. The Pentagon estimates that in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan, up to 500,000 people could be killed, while millions more could be forced to flee the region.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave 500,000 dead, devastate the global economy and increase Beijing's already growing influence, an expert warned in a new report ahead of key elections on Saturday. In recent years, it has become clear that President Xi Jinping is facing increasingly hostile rhetoric and simulated blockades of the island are planning an invasion in the coming years. Pictured: An excerpt from a video released by China shows soldiers taking part in an invasion exercise. The Taiwanese naval ship Keelung (seen in the foreground) monitors the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong (in the background) near Taiwanese waters in September 2023
Spinck's warning came in a report released this week ahead of Taiwan's general election, which will be held on January 13.
The vote is being watched with excitement from Beijing to Washington as the next president will decide the island's future relations with an increasingly assertive China in a flashpoint region: the Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea.
China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, and fears have grown in recent years that President Xi Jinping is planning an invasion in the coming years amid increasingly hostile rhetoric and simulated blockades of the island.
Beijing has never renounced the use of force to take what it sees as a breakaway province, and Xi has said unification is inevitable.
His government warned this week that a vote for independence candidate Lai Ching-te – the frontrunner – posed a “serious danger” to the island's future.
This came despite Beijing calling on the US not to interfere in Taiwan's elections and rejecting official visits between the island and the US after Washington announced it would send a delegation there after this week's elections.
Whoever is elected on Saturday could well lead Taiwan at the time of an invasion. Taiwan's foreign minister said last year that the country was preparing for the possibility of conflict with China's armies in 2027.
The PLA's Eastern Theater Command released this clip last year, showing a montage of soldiers storming beaches and driving tanks on dirt roads. Footage released by China shows tanks and other military vehicles taking part in an exercise simulating a naval blockade and island invasion September 2023 The clip from the September exercise shows soldiers storming beaches and driving tanks, as well as a fleet of helicopters flying over roar away from them (pictured). The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be brought back under Beijing's control
Although Taiwan – home to 23.5 million people – is much smaller than its neighbor across the Strait, it still has a thriving economy and democracy and is vital to the region both economically and strategically.
It supplies 90 percent of the world's semiconductors, used in all modern consumer electronics such as phones, laptops, cars and kitchen appliances, as well as in embedded systems and communications infrastructure, to name just a few applications.
According to Spinck, a PLA invasion would have devastating consequences for both Taiwan and the rest of the world, which relies on supplies from Taiwan and China as well as Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor industry.
The report, titled “How strengthened UK-Taiwan ties can help maintain stable cross-strait relations,” calls on the British government to take steps to prepare for such an eventuality, which could result in the The UK may be forced to protect its own interests.
“The success of the UK’s post-Brexit Indo-Pacific alignment, as well as its security and economic interests across the region, increasingly depend on the maintenance of stable cross-strait relations between Taiwan and China.” […] China,” he says.
“Any change to the fragile status quo in the Taiwan Strait would have devastating consequences for the region and…” […] about the national interests of the United Kingdom.”
An invasion by China or a blockade of the island, Spinck writes, would “lead to disruptions to sea and air trade routes, disruptions to global supply chains and potentially the destruction of Taiwan's semiconductor factories” and lead to a shortage.
This is “catastrophic” for the global economy, he says, citing an analysis by the think tank Rhodium Group.
Beijing has never renounced the use of force to take what it considers a breakaway province, and Xi Jinping (pictured Jan. 8) has said unification is inevitable. Supporters of Taiwan Nationalist Party presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih cheer during his car campaign New Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, January 11, 2024 Taiwan People's Party (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je greets his supporters during a campaign tour in a Motorcade in Tainan, Taiwan, on January 9th
The impact would “dwarf” the drop in inflation caused by the war in Ukraine, Spinck explains, pointing to recent estimates suggesting global markets would shrink by $2 trillion. Global GDP is around $100 trillion.
For the United Kingdom specifically, trade in goods and services between Taiwan and the United Kingdom totaled 8.6 billion pounds in 2022, according to Spinck.
This would either slow or stop completely in the event of an invasion or blockade, hitting the manufacturing and energy sectors hard.
Spinck also warns of the geopolitical implications such an approach by Beijing would have.
“An invasion of Taiwan would allow PLAN to project power beyond Taiwan in the First Island Chain and north toward Japan […] and the second island chain,” he writes.
He points out that Japan is a key security partner of the United Kingdom, which supports AUKUS (a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region) and has worked with Britain and Italy on a new fighter jet project.
Meanwhile, the second island chain – one of two “island chains” designed by America to contain Russian and Chinese influence in the region – includes Guam, a US island territory in Micronesia in the western Pacific.
Spinck points out that 60 percent of the world's population lives in the Indo-Pacific region, which is expected to become the “main engine of global economic growth.”
Should China take control of Taiwan, China would be able to “exert immense economic and political influence over other British partners in the region.”
Citing a US Congressional report, Spinck says a successful Chinese invasion would cause other US and British partners in the region to question their existing security commitments to their allies in the West.
Spinck also warns of the catastrophic human toll that forced reunification would take.
A Pentagon report estimates that about 500,000 people would die in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan.
Millions more would have to flee or be evacuated from the region.
This graphic shows areas from which Chinese troops are likely to launch and where in Taiwan they are likely to land if Beijing does launch an invasion
In September 2023, the Chinese military conducted its largest naval warfare simulation to date. These included the Beijing aircraft carrier Shandong and 20 other warships, while dozens of fighter jets entered Taiwan's airspace.
The exercise increased speculation about how China would force reunification.
While an invasion has been touted as a possibility, China would also suffer heavy casualties and may not even succeed – with a US think tank suggesting last year that Beijing would be defeated by Taiwan, the US and Japan combined.
However, if China does invade, Taiwanese officials and cybersecurity experts say it will not limit its attacks to security forces and defense infrastructure, but will effectively isolate the island from the world.
According to Taiwanese authorities, government agencies face an estimated five million cyberattacks every day, with that number increasing in the run-up to the election.
Spinck warns that an economic blockade and other Gey Zone tactics could cause Taipei to capitulate to Beijing's demands without a Chinese soldier ever firing a shot.
“Taiwan only has more than eight days of natural gas supplies and remains vulnerable to a communications blackout should the People’s Republic of China sever its undersea telecommunications cables,” he writes.
For these reasons and more, Spinck's report puts forward ten suggestions for the British government to take to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan.
First, he says, the administration should join the U.S. government in convening a special committee to investigate the CCP's threat to the region.
He also says Britain and its European allies in NATO should increase their arms supplies to Ukraine, thereby easing the burden placed on the United States to then help arm Taiwan's armies.
According to Spinck, a PLA invasion would have devastating consequences for both Taiwan and the rest of the world, which relies on supplies from Taiwan and China as well as Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor industry
The British government should also encourage Taipei to increase its own defense spending to 3 percent of Taiwan's GRP, Spinck says.
He also calls on the UK to work more closely with the US and other partners to ensure there is no disruption to semiconductor supplies.
This, he says, would include: “Securing alternative sources of supply for rare earths needed for chip manufacturing; Blocking CCP attempts to secure British semiconductor manufacturers; “Encouraging Taiwan to better restrict exports of chips to the PRC for use in the People’s Liberation Army’s military modernization and to fund research facilities for semiconductor manufacturing and advanced/new technologies.”
The UK should also limit capital outflows to China and clearly state that any attempts by Beijing to end Taiwan's self-rule or disrupt the status quo in the Taiwan Strait would result in a “reassessment of London's relationship with Beijing.”
Ahead of Saturday's elections, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu criticized China's “repeated interference” in the elections.
“Taiwan’s upcoming elections are in the international spotlight and (China’s) repeated interference is stealing the focus.”
“Frankly, Beijing should stop interfering in other countries’ elections and stand its ground,” Wu posted on the social media platform X on Thursday.
Lai, who once described himself as a “pragmatic advocate for Taiwanese independence,” took a softer stance on the issue during the election campaign.
He has instead chosen to adopt current President Tsai Ing-wen's stance that Taiwan is “already independent” and therefore does not need to officially declare it.
China cut off high-level communications with Tsai's government over its defense of the island's sovereignty.
Lai said Tuesday that Taiwan cannot harbor “illusions of peace.”
“Acceptance of China’s “One China” principle is not true peace.”