Hamas’s release of two U.S. citizens on Friday appeared to be a rare positive moment in this worsening crisis.
Hamas said Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie were released for “humanitarian reasons,” raising hopes that more of the 200 people kidnapped in its raid on southern Israel two weeks ago would follow suit.
But it may yet turn out to be a false dawn.
If you look beneath the surface of this supposed humanitarian gesture, you’ll probably find that disbursing cash is one of Hamas’ main motivations.
How could the terror group not have had an eye on the nearly £5 billion deal the Biden administration struck in September to buy the freedom of five American-Iranian dual nationals who had been held in Tehran for years?
Hamas’s release of two U.S. citizens on Friday appeared to be a rare positive moment in this worsening crisis
Hamas said Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie were released for “humanitarian reasons,” raising hopes that more of the 200 people kidnapped in its raid on southern Israel two weeks ago would follow suit
Each released hostage fills Hamas’s coffers, although there is no indication yet that Washington has paid for the release of Judith and Natalie Raanan.
Even if the Americans didn’t pay, Hamas has a political incentive to let Western hostages trickle out in this way.
As long as the United States and its allies believe that their nationals can be released unharmed, they will continue to pressure Israel not to send ground troops to the Gaza Strip. The longer Israel delays, the more Hamas hopes it can delay or stop an invasion.
But how did America’s “fascist government” – as a Hamas spokesman called those he spoke to after the hostages were released – open a back channel to communicate with the terrorist group?
The main mediator in the negotiations is Qatar. Last autumn the eyes of the world were on the energy-rich emirate as it hosted the World Cup and spent £180bn building spectacular stadiums in the desert. But it’s now attracting attention for entirely different reasons. It was Qatar that stepped in to negotiate the US-Iran hostage deal; and Qatar appears to be the deal broker once again.
The country is home to both a US military base and Hamas leaders. It’s impossible to overstate how bizarre this situation is.
Imagine if, after 9/11, Osama bin Laden had lived in a country with a strong American military presence and been a vital energy supplier to Europe, rather than in outlawed Afghanistan.
By acting as a peacemaker, Qatar avoids the thorny issues surrounding its hosting of Hamas and its effective subsidization of the terror regime in Gaza.
This labyrinthine situation is further complicated by Qatar’s big brother across the Gulf, Iran.
The two countries have an extremely lucrative gas field and have mutual mistrust of Saudi Arabia. Tehran’s interest in the hostage negotiations is that its proxy, Hamas, is destabilizing the region and hindering the ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv that were strengthening just two weeks ago.
But the West unfortunately has no choice but to use Qatar as an intermediary, regardless of its unclear loyalties.
It is telling that at the Cairo Summit for Peace conference yesterday, while Middle Eastern leaders and European foreign ministers were present, including our own James Cleverly, the Americans sent only one acting ambassador.
Washington knows it cannot rely on its traditional Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia to exert influence over Hamas, as Riyadh is no more a friend of the terror group than Tel Aviv.
Israel’s neighbors Egypt and Jordan would rather not get involved. Egypt wants to receive humanitarian aid, but neither country is willing to accept a wave of Palestinian refugees that could upend their societies.
No, Joe Biden’s dealmakers are operating behind the scenes elsewhere – no doubt in Qatar – and don’t want any of their allies getting involved in the high-stakes dispute.
Relying on this tiny petro-state and its nefarious allies to quickly resolve the hostage crisis is far from ideal.
What price the West will have to pay for these 200 human lives remains to be seen.