In fact, there is only one rule for waging war, and that is to get there first with the most troops. Everything else is a detail. And that’s exactly what Putin did Ukraine.
In the wee hours of this morning, the Russian military, aided by the forces of its client country Belarus, launched their attack in the Donbass region. In the Russian version of the notorious US tactics of “shock and awe” from past conflicts, it began with an attack on Ukraine’s air defense and communications systems designed to disable and destroy and give freedom to the Russian air force. That’s exactly how the Gulf War started in 1991. I know, I was there.
What will probably be the Russian tactic now that the battle is essentially joined? They have long supported the doctrine of what they call the Deep Battle, which is essentially an extended version of the German blitzkrieg. In practice, after establishing air superiority – or at least air parity – and crushing artillery bombardment, strong armored columns shatter across the enemy’s front line and sink deep into the enemy’s rear, bypassing points of serious resistance. The goal is to disrupt, disorient and displace, and the zenith of success is the encirclement and destruction of enemy forces. A quick look at Soviet operations in Eastern Europe in 1944-45 provides a historical pattern.
I think they will try to do this in Ukraine quickly, while the opponents are stunned and slow to react. And when they do, Putin will have achieved more and more than he had hoped for, and he will be in a dominant position when it comes to the inevitable peace talks, which will ultimately stop hostilities.
Military expert Stuart Crawford says Putin, Russia will launch blitzkrieg against Ukraine
Ukrainian tanks are entering the city after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the military
An armored column of Third Reich forces invades Poland, fueling war in Europe
The website of the Ukrainian State Border Service was damaged by shelling in the Kiev region this morning
Many planes may have been involved in the Russian attack, including the Sukhoi Su-25, an armored ground attack aircraft designed specifically to support ground forces. It has been around for about three decades, but updates keep it up to date. There will probably be several MiG-29 multi-role attack aircraft plus attack helicopters, most notably their relatively new Mil MI-28.
For a deep attack, they would have used missiles, probably the Caliber air and sea missile, the equivalent of the American Tomahawk. The suppression of Ukrainian border troops was probably carried out by conventional artillery and multi-barrel missile systems such as the BM 21 Grad.
How can Ukraine defend itself against such an attack? Unfortunately, the answer is very difficult. Outnumbered and armed, its capabilities are limited. Personally, my advice would be not to try to defeat the Russians in an open war, which is a cover for nothing. If it has to be defended, then the wide expanses of the Dnieper River are probably the most obvious natural obstacle, but that would mean giving up a large area.
Stuart Crawford was a regular officer in the Royal Tank Regiment for twenty years, retiring as a lieutenant colonel
Joint operation of German Ju-87 dive bombers and tanks against Polish positions in Tucheler Heide in 1939.
An explosion lit up the night sky over Kiev in the early hours of Thursday as Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine from the north, south and east with bombs, cruise missiles and rockets falling from the sky.
A huge explosion is observed at the Vinnytsia military base in central Ukraine as the country comes under widespread attack from Russia.
What is Blitzkrieg?
The name Blitzkrieg is a German word that means “lightning war”.
It is used to describe a particularly aggressive form of war, first used by the Nazis during the spread of their evil at the beginning of World War II.
The tactics of the tanks are combined with artillery and motorized infantry to hit a specific area to break through the defense of the target.
During World War II, the Luftwaffe will be available to provide air support and destroy anything that could threaten the offensive.
The Imperial Military Museum says: “Radio communications were the key to effective Blitzkrieg operations, allowing commanders to coordinate the offensive and keep the enemy out of balance.
“These techniques were used to great effect in 1939, when the Polish army was destroyed in a series of surrounding battles. In May 1940, Hitler attacked France, destroying his slow-moving French formations and cutting off British expeditionary forces at Dunkirk.
“Spectacular success was also achieved during the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, and a large number of Soviet troops were captured.”
However, modern armies fear the need to fight in urban areas more than anything else. The damage that such tactics would do to Ukraine’s cities and towns should not be underestimated, nor should the civilian casualties that inevitably accumulate, but urban agglomerations drain the attacking forces and deprive them of many of the benefits of superior numbers and equipment. . The Russians will not want to get involved in another Stalingrad or Berlin, and this factor may be in favor of the defenders. However, this would not be without high costs.
The only surprise here is that some people, including our own politicians, seem to be surprised by last night’s events. It is true that the possibility, even the probability, of such an attack has been signaled by US and UK intelligence sources for months, but their advice seems to have remained deaf. This is a classic case of collective cognitive dissonance.
In military circles, “threat” is usually understood as an integral part of abilities and intentions. Russia’s ability has never been questioned, and the transparency offered by modern surveillance systems has quickly confirmed the build-up of troops in preparation for what we now know to be an invasion. All the elements were there – including the most important and significant logistical storage of ammunition and medical supplies, which usually precede military operations.
What was not so clear, however, was Putin’s intention. The Russians have long been experts in the art of disguise, a doctrine covering a wide range of measures designed to cover up and deceive. Although hiding hardware may be difficult, Putin’s actions are deliberately ambiguous until it is too late for NATO and the West to respond effectively.
As far as NATO and the West are concerned, there is very little that can be done. The delivery of weapons and supplies may slow down the result and delay it long enough for the Russians to get tired of the conflict and seek peace, but that’s all. Politicians can break their arms and express “solidarity”, but that will not really reduce them. Nor can we, the British, send troops, because we don’t really have an army to handle the task.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s fate is in the hands of its people, despite friendly words and encouragement from international allies. And they face a bleak immediate future.
Stuart Crawford was a regular officer in the Royal Tank Regiment for twenty years, retiring as a lieutenant colonel. He now works as a defense and security consultant