A new episode of drought in France. As confirmed by Météo-France on Tuesday February 21, the country has not registered any real rainfall for 31 days: an absence of rain that would match the very recent record of 2020 and which would jeopardize the recovery of water tables, surpassed by that of last year exhausted were historic drought.
Although there has been occasional rain in some locations, the cumulative rainfall per day since January 21 has been less than 1mm per day across metropolitan France.
“February 2023 is expected to end with a rainfall deficit of more than 50%, making it one of the driest February since records began in 1959,” says Météo-France.
This lack of rain “is mainly related to the anticyclonic conditions since the end of January, which have acted as a kind of protective shield” against rain disturbances, explains Simon Mittelberger, climatologist at Météo-France.
Of concern, however, beyond the individual episode is the recurrence of the phenomenon and context illustrated by UN experts’ predictions of global warming related to human activities, although scientists have not yet attributed this specific drought to climate change.
This episode has already eclipsed the previous record for the winter months – 22 days in 1989 – during this crucial time for groundwater recharge.
The “shield” effect
Whatever happens, “February 2023 should end with a rainfall deficit of more than 50%, making it one of the driest February on record since measurements began in 1959,” Météo-France announced on Monday.
This lack of rain “is mainly related to the anticyclonic conditions since the end of January, which have acted as a kind of protective shield” against rain disturbances, explains Simon Mittelberger, climatologist at Météo-France.
What is worrying, however, beyond the individual episode is the recurrence of the phenomenon and the context that illustrates the UN experts’ predictions of global warming in the context of human activities.
“France is suffering from a worrying meteorological drought,” says Météo-France: “Since August 2021, every month has had a rainfall deficit, with the exception of December 2021, June 2022 and September 2022.”
Moreover, this chronic deficit persists after the exceptional heat waves and soil drought of summer 2022, other symptoms of climate change. Almost all departments of metropolitan France had been declared a drought alert, with restrictions on water for irrigation or car washing.
New records every year
But at the time, the severity of the situation was mitigated by a previous wet winter in most regions, which had helped replenish water tables.
At the beginning of 2023, however, its filling will be delayed. Back in January, the Geological and Mining Research Office (BRGM, in French) was “rather pessimistic” about the availability of groundwater next summer, which will provide two-thirds of drinking water and a third of agricultural irrigation.
If it rains so badly in 2023, “we will be in a much worse situation than in late summer 2022,” the agency warned.
In fact, the record lack of rain in spring 2020 was followed by the driest summer since records began at ground level.
With the exception of 2021, the dry soil indicator has reached a new all-time high every summer since 2018.
In a sign of concern, the government on Thursday convened its “first hydrological monitoring and forecasting committee of the year” amid the threat of “conflicts of use”, i.e. tensions between the needs of agriculture, hydroelectric power production in dams and recreational activities (golf, canoeing, etc.) and the health of ecosystems.
The government’s water management plan, announced for late January, has been postponed by several weeks.
Meanwhile, some departments are already suffering: the Pyrénées-Orientales have been in continuous drought alert since June and are hit by repeated fires in the middle of winter. And most of the Var department went into drought alert on Friday.
Across the border, in Catalonia, water reserves currently have only 28.7% of their capacity, compared to an average of 72% over the past decade, according to the latest national hydrological bulletin.
*Article adapted from the French original