Ukrainian Maj Volodymyr Voloshyn October 5 watches a military drone operator, Arthur, communicate with an artillery brigade to direct their fire in the Mykolaiv region of southern Ukraine. (Heidi Levine/FTWP)
October 5, 2022 at 6:31 p.m. EDT
MYKOLAIV REGION, Ukraine – Ignoring the occasional roar of artillery in the distance, the drone operator kept his eyes on the computer monitor in front of him as he waited for a plume of smoke to appear. His thumbs flicked the joystick left, then right, before switching to his phone screen to report where the artillery should aim next.
About three miles from Ukraine’s southern front line, US-supplied M777 howitzers pummeled Russian forces, who refused to give any more ground.
Another soldier with the call sign “Dobriy” then informed his comrades from this Ukrainian special forces unit that their drone was not the only one in the sky. He had just been told that a Russian Orlan reconnaissance UAV was headed that way and if they were spotted, shelling would surely follow. The day before, the field behind this short trench line was littered with missiles. “That was special for me,” Dobriy said with a grin.
Its commander, Col. Roman Kostenko, now looked concerned. “Shall we go?” he asked, referring to himself and the Washington Post journalists he had brought with him. “Too late,” replied Arthur, the drone operator, still not taking his eyes off the screen in front of him.
A day after Ukrainian forces retook more territory in the southern Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, jubilation at a breakthrough in that part of the frontline was tempered by fears of an expected uphill battle.
Kiev’s military here has pushed the Russians back dozens of kilometers in some places after months of trying to advance. But after Ukraine’s remarkably successful counter-offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, soldiers stationed near the southern front warned that the situation remained tense. Kherson is too important politically and militarily for the Russians to retreat in the messy manner they did in Kharkiv, they said.
“This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There they left all their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here we don’t even have many trophies. They just retired from combat, took everything with them to their new location and are re-burrowing.”
What Ukrainians have been observing is an orderly Russian withdrawal from some towns and villages in what could be preparation to open the front line around the city of Kherson, the region’s lonely capital that Moscow’s forces have captured since they began their invasion last February. and to streamline the neighboring town of Nova Kakhovka, which houses a hydroelectric power station that also controls a vital water supply to Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Seizing the power plant and restoring the flow of water that Ukraine had cut off was one of the high points of Russia’s military objectives in the early days of the invasion.
Putin cites success in the annexed regions even as his exhausted troops withdraw
The Ukrainian advances come as the Russian force finds itself in an increasingly precarious position in and around Kherson. The city sits on the only piece of territory controlled by the Russian military west of the Dnieper. The country is flat, making it particularly difficult for Russia to defend.
The part of the occupied country is connected to the rest of the Russian-controlled territory by two main crossings over the Dnieper – the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, which is badly damaged, and the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which is about 45 miles to the east and remains navigable.
Russian forces risk being cut off in Kherson – surrounded by Ukrainian forces on three sides and the river on the fourth – if the Ukrainians manage to get close enough to the river to make it impassable.
“If the Ukrainian military can get artillery within range of key bridges and river crossings, then the Russian position in general could become untenable,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Virginia-based research group CNA.
A prudent military strategy would require a retreat across the river rather than risk being surrounded or besieged at Kherson. But the Russians will likely fight to hold Kherson because it’s the capital of a region Putin allegedly annexed.
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The city and its environs would also serve as a useful bridgehead on the western side of the river for the Russians should they manage to restore their fighting strength and go on the offensive to capture the port cities of Mykolaiv and Odessa.
“We think it is unlikely that the Russian leadership would authorize a full withdrawal from Kherson for political reasons,” said a Western official, who insisted on anonymity to brief reporters on sensitive security information. “So this situation in the south could become increasingly chaotic with potentially more desperate Russian forces having their backs to the river.”
“It won’t be an easy onslaught through unrestricted territory,” the official added. “You will have a challenge there.”
So far, the Ukrainians have made the most progress pushing back the Russians northeast of Kherson. How quickly the Russian front could collapse depends on whether the Russians have a layered defense built between the front and the city to fall back on.
Unlike Kharkiv, where local militiamen and Russian National Guardsmen mainly manned a front that was falling quickly, Russia has deployed more experienced forces – paratroopers and marines – in and around Kherson. They’re tougher opponents, but even these units now seem disjointed due to heavy casualties.
Captain Andriy Pidlisnyy said his Ukrainian military unit in the Mykolaiv region recently captured a Russian prisoner, who explained Moscow’s personnel problems thus: In the prisoner’s three-man tank crew, all three were from different units within the Russian armed forces.
The prisoner, a paratrooper, was the driver. The commander was a mercenary from the Wagner paramilitary outfit. And the shooter was mobilized from the occupied Luhansk region, which is under the control of Kremlin proxies.
“If even at the tank level they have such a hodgepodge of different units, then at the level where there is a company, a battalion and a brigade, it is clear that there can be no normal coordination,” Pidlisnyy said.
Ukraine is now trying to seize an important transition period for Russia before reinforcements from Putin’s recent mobilization arrive on the front lines. Near the recently liberated settlement of Davydiv Brid, there was a bustle on the streets on Wednesday as Ukrainian forces moved pontoon bridges, self-propelled howitzers and armored vehicles. Kostenko’s drone unit prepared homemade explosives in recycled soda cans to drop on fields around Davydiv Brid – an inventive demining tactic.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive, advancing on two fronts, is now moving so fast that even soldiers on the ground are struggling to keep up.
“Does Snihurivka belong to us yet?” Kostenko asked his deputy, referring to a town in the Mykolaiv region that has been a stronghold of Russian forces since the beginning of the war.
“Almost,” replied Maj. Volodymyr Voloshyn.
Retaking Davydiv Brid and Snihurivka would give the Ukrainians access to roads leading deeper into the Kherson region and increase pressure on the Russians from the northwest.
“Soon we will be in Crimea,” said Voloshyn dryly.
The men are both from southern Ukraine, as is the rest of their 29-strong unit. Kostenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, divides his time between here, Kyiv, and international travel to advocate for Ukraine getting more guns. On a recent visit to Washington, he asked members of Congress for more tanks and armored personnel carriers.
His own hometown of Charivne in the Kherson region is still occupied. He stared at a tablet with a map of the village on Wednesday and showed a drone operator where his home was located. “Whatever you do, don’t let anyone shoot there,” he joked.
Driving Russian soldiers out of his backyard is a personal priority. And while he doesn’t expect it to be easy, recent successes have convinced all of Ukraine that it’s possible.
“The success of the counter-offensive in Kharkiv really motivated the fighters here,” said Kostenko. “The instinct is to be careful, but sometimes you have to put a foot in to see it’s not that scary and you can keep going. When what happened in Kharkiv showed that we can do it, the result came here too. We have started to move forward.”
Sun reported from Washington. Emily Rauhala in Brussels contributed to this report.
War in Ukraine: What you need to know
The newest: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed decrees annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine after staged referenda were widely denounced as illegal. Follow our live updates here.
The answer: The Biden administration on Friday announced a new round of sanctions against Russia in response to the annexations, targeting government officials and family members, Russian and Belarusian military officials and defense procurement networks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said on Friday that Ukraine was requesting “accelerated accession” to NATO in an apparent response to the annexations.
In Russia: Putin on September 21 declared a military mobilization to call up up to 300,000 reservists in a dramatic attempt to reverse setbacks in his war against Ukraine. The announcement prompted an exodus of more than 180,000 people, mostly conscript men, and renewed protests and other acts of defiance against the war.
The fight: Ukraine launched a successful counter-offensive that forced a major Russian retreat in the northeastern Kharkiv region in early September, as troops fled towns and villages they had occupied since the early days of the war, leaving behind large amounts of military equipment.
Photos: Washington Post photographers have been on the ground since the war began – here is some of their most impressive work.
How can you help: Here are ways people in the US can support the people of Ukraine, as well as what people around the world have donated.
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