The latest poll on voting intentions, released this Saturday, confirms Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in a hypothetical November election duel, if both candidates' ideas are confirmed. Previous polls had already predicted a decline in support for the Democrat, but the latest Siena College poll for The New York Times shows in black and white the decline in the Democratic president's popularity, the lowest in his entire term: the percentage of voters who do this The number of those who openly disapprove of Biden's management reaches 47% today, eight months before the election. This is the highest recorded in Times/Siena polls during his presidency.
If the presidential election, scheduled for November 5, were held today, 48% of respondents would vote for Republican Trump, compared to 43% who would vote for Biden. A not insignificant 10% correspond to undecided people, who will be decisive for the final result. According to the poll published this Saturday, only one in four voters believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while more than twice as many believe that Biden's policies have harmed them more than helped them. Despite the strength of the economy, one of the advantages Democrats are using in the election campaign, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure raised concerns this week due to overheating of prices, particularly of fresh food. The majority of respondents believe that the economy is not doing well.
Biden's policies towards Israel and the war in Gaza are also reducing support for Biden: more than 100,000 Democratic voters, mostly of Arab origin, as well as young and progressive voters turned their backs on him this Tuesday in the primary elections in Michigan. A wake-up call that is in no way helped by the image conveyed by the president the day before, when he froze while speculating about the impending ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Although the White House has modified its speech on Israel and focused increasing attention on Benjamin Netanyahu's government, its position at the United Nations, where it vetoed three humanitarian ceasefire resolutions, is taking a toll on even the most progressive voters.
The 81-year-old Biden is also struggling to overcome doubts about his physical and mental fitness for office: the image of an old man with poor memory, which the prosecutor revealed in the secret documents less than a month ago, has given the public image a political impact harmed. of the candidate for re-election. Among Democratic primary voters, there are as many who argue that Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as those who say the opposite. The poll provides warning signs of dissatisfaction with the leader among Democrats as well as among female, black and Latino voters. Among Arab and more progressive voters, the signs are more than clear in Michigan. The strongest opposition to his leadership is among voters under 45, according to the Siena College poll.
So far, it is Trump who has best united his party, even in the midst of the current primaries in which he is almost 20 points ahead of the second candidate, Nikki Haley, and when he is threatened with a judicial offensive that he is accused of, a total of 91 criminal charges , and must pay $500 million after being convicted in two additional civil cases. Trump has consolidated the Republican base: he has the support of 97% of those who voted for him four years ago. In contrast, Biden retains just 83% of his 2020 voters, while 10% say they will now support Trump.
There are Republican caucuses in Idaho, Missouri and Michigan (partially) this weekend and primaries on Sunday in the District of Columbia, which includes Washington.
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