With Steve Cohen, there is no Wilponian uncertainty about spending. Just for the wisdom to do so.
The person who asked Steve Cohen this question in the last few days was Steve Cohen. He had a trade proposal on his desk for most of last week in which the Mets would absorb about half of Eric Hosmer’s remaining four years at $59 million for urgent access now and for the near future with starter Chris Paddack required pitching depth and reliever Emilio Pagan.
Cohen was contemplating this transaction before it was revealed that Jacob deGrom had a shoulder injury that would cost him at least two months and Max Scherzer had a hamstring problem that could prevent him from making his first round. That just emphasizes the need for more pitching.
But are these the right pitchers to send Dom Smith to San Diego and accept a contract the Mets don’t need tied to a player they don’t want? Paddack hasn’t been nearly as effective since a strong rookie outburst in 2019 (including a verbal skirmish with Pete Alonso). The Righty is a high-end strike launcher with a terrific changeup. But his fastball is straight, and he needs to get a feel for a third-pitch breaking ball. Pagan has been durable with strong strikeout numbers but is prone to homers, having given up 45 in the past four years — six more than any other reliever.
There are also optics. Part of recent bargaining has not just been management vs players, but other owners vs Cohen and his rampant spending. The recently signed CBA has a new, $290 million, fourth luxury tax bill dubbed the Steve Cohen Tax to try to hold him back. The Dodgers actually surpass that barrier after trading AJ Pollock for Craig Kimbrel on Friday.
Steve Cohen AP
That trade would move the Mets guidance well above $290 million and deal with the symbolism of the first-ever paycheck of $300 million. Even Cohen has had a break from crossing that line so soon after the CBA deal.
With the Padres splurging on $34 million in a proposal, Hosmer would cost the Mets between $6.25 million on their payroll for tax reasons not just this year, but for the three seasons thereafter. Paddack ($2.25 million) and Pagan ($2.3 million) would roughly do a paywash with Smith ($3.95 million) in 2022.
The Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll was $297.5 million in 2015.
Cohen has attempted to emulate these Dodgers, also still in the early years of a new owner, using his money to attempt to hasten relevance and contention while providing cover for upgrading a minor-league feeding system.
That system is unwilling to help with pitching depth, which was a top concern for the Mets even before deGrom’s loss and Scherzer’s setback. The post lockout trade for Chris Bassitt now looks even more valuable as he joins Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker in the rotation.
Paddack would join Tylor Megill, David Peterson and – sometime later in the year – Joey Lucchesi (Tommy John operation) to offer rotation options. Additionally, Bassitt, Carrasco, deGrom and Walker may all be free agents after the 2022 season. Having Paddack in control until at least 2024 also makes him more attractive. Having been raised for the start of the 2019 season, Paddack has exactly three years of service to his credit. So if the Mets sent him to the minors for more than three weeks, they could delay his free hand until after the 2025 season. Pagan has two more years of control.
Chris Paddack AP
Dominic Smith, Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post
Paddack, 26, was 9-7 in 2019 with a 3.33 ERA as a rookie. But he had a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. It was 5.07 in 23 appearances (22 starts) last season for the disappointing Padres. Paddack, who underwent Tommy John surgery with the minors, was shut down last September with a minor sprain to his right elbow, the team said. He came to this camp in a battle for fifth rotation with recently signed Nick Martinez.
Both Paddack and Alonso were included in the opening day 2019 squads and had outstanding Aprils. Alonso was named NL Rookie of the Month. Paddack responded by saying, “I’m coming for him,” noting that the goal was Rookie of the Year (which Alonso won), not Rookie of the Month. The two faced each other on May 6th. Alonso went 3-0 with two strikeouts against Paddack, who punctuated the strikeouts emphatically.
After that, Alonso kicked things up a notch by telling reporters: “If he was mad about it (not being NL rookie of the month) there’s five more months to go. … He also said something about winning Rookie of the Year. That would be nice, but I’m trying to win a World Series.”
For the Mets, Hosmer, 32, would be a pricier, more limited Smith — a left-hander who can make Alonso the designated hitter with some regularity. Unlike Smith, who also played corner outfield, Hosmer has gone 25 career innings in the outfield, not since 2015. That was the year the Royals beat the Mets in the World Series in Hosmer’s signature game, Hosmer’s dash home to tie in Game 5, first baseman Lucas Duda was throwing wildly at the plate.
Hosmer signed an eight-year, $144 million free agent contract with San Diego after the 2017 season, and his performance as Padre has been ordinary — perhaps most surprisingly, Scouts cite how his defense has taken a noticeable step backwards. The team have been trying to trade him in for at least a year to remove salary to pursue other areas of need – namely an outfield hitter – and Hosmer was angered by how public his availability had become.
It would be difficult for the Mets to swap Hosmer anywhere else. Because his contract gives him full no-trade protection after being traded once. So one has to wonder if the Mets could just let Hosmer go and eat what they owe him for the next four years.
That’s a steep price to pay for two potentially useful but inconsequential mugs. Because of this, Cohen ponders whether he would spend or spend wisely.