People still wear their masks amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Los Angeles, California, U.S., February 8, 2022. REUTERS/David Swanson
MARCH 22 – About one in three COVID-19 cases in the United States is now caused by the BA.2 Omicron subvariant of the coronavirus, according to government data on Tuesday, which also showed overall infections were still falling from record levels in the January.
Despite the rise of the extremely contagious sub-variant, which is also being seen in other countries, US health experts say a large wave of new infections here is unlikely.
COVID-19 infections in the US have fallen sharply since January, although a resurgence in parts of Asia and Europe has raised concerns that one will follow in the United States, given past patterns during the two years of the pandemic.
In the Northeast, including New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, Omicron BA.2 now accounts for more than half of cases, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
It accounted for 35% of U.S. infections in the week ended March 19, CDC said. This compares to 22.3% for the week ended March 12, which has been revised down from 23.1%, according to a CDC model that estimates the proportions of variants in circulation.
The top US infectious disease official, Dr. Anthony Fauci, speaking at a Washington Post event on Tuesday, said he doesn’t think there’s going to be a major surge anytime soon “unless it changes dramatically.”
Still, Fauci noted that cases in the United States are generally about three weeks behind the UK, “so if we see an uptick, we should see it within the next week or so.”
Daniel Kuritzkes, chief of the infectious diseases unit at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital, said there’s no evidence yet that the BA.2 spike indicates an increase in cases.
“I think the only concern and where people need to remain vigilant is that as we have eased a lot of restrictions around masking and gathering, there is a potential opportunity for BA.2 or any variant to gain a foothold,” said Kuritzkes.
The subvariant is more transmissible than the Omicron BA.1 variant that caused the massive winter surge, the World Health Organization (WHO) said. However, it does not appear to cause more severe disease, and initial data showed that infection with BA.1 provides strong protection against re-infection with BA.2, the WHO said.
As of March 19, the seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the US was 27,747, down nearly 18% from the previous week.
Most of the country is believed to have low COVID transmission, according to new CDC guidelines introduced last month, which emphasize hospital capacity over caseload. And most people have been advised to stop wearing masks indoors. Continue reading
“NO EVIDENCE OF A WAVE” IN WASTEWATER
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which updated its closely-watched forecast on Monday, does not expect a large spike in coronavirus cases in the United States in the coming weeks.
“However, it is possible that the rapid return to pre-COVID-19 behavior and the spread of BA2 could bring a brief period of rising case numbers,” tweeted Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washington.
Testing sewage samples for the coronavirus has proven to be an effective early measure of the imminent surge in COVID-19 cases, sometimes detecting new flare-ups days or even weeks before human testing dates.
Biobot Analytics has been testing sewage in the United States for the virus since March 2020 and is currently monitoring over 200 sites in approximately 40 states.
“Right now there is no evidence of a surge in wastewater data,” said Mariana Matus, chief executive of Biobot Analytics.
“Just to give a context, virus levels in wastewater increased about 100 times faster during the first Omicron wave in December compared to now,” Matus said.
New York City is moving forward by dropping more mitigation plans. Mayor Eric Adams said Tuesday that masks will be optional for children ages 2 to 4 in schools and daycares starting April 4. Children under the age of 5 are not yet eligible for a COVID vaccination.
The 7-day positivity rate in New York’s schools was 0.15% last week, according to the city’s Department of Education. The city’s 7-day positivity rate for all ages was 21% at the peak of the last spike.
“Our schools have been among the safest places for our children since the pandemic began,” Adams said in a statement, “and we will only lift that requirement when the science says it’s safe to do so.”
Reporting by Bhanvi Satija, Ankur Banerjee in Bengaluru, Michael Erman in New Jersey and Brendan O’Brien in New York; additional reporting from Manojna Maddipatla and Manas Mishra in Bengaluru; Edited by Amy Caren Daniel and Bill Berkrot