Chinese media are currently unpacking an old speech by former US President Donald Trump. One where he refers to Nancy Pelosi of the Democratic Party as “Crazy Nancy”. The 82-year-old is an outspoken critic of China – and therefore popular in the People’s Republic. But now she is causing a lot of anger in Beijing: because the media has reported that Pelosi wants to visit Taiwan. As she still hasn’t denied the sensitive visit, it can be assumed that she really intends to do so.
“If the US side insists on this visit, China will take decisive and strong measures to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said Beijing Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian. China sees the de facto independent and democratically governed Taiwan as a renegade province that the People’s Republic wants to incorporate, if necessary also militarily. The fact that Beijing sees Pelosi’s visit as a particular provocation is due to her position: as Speaker of the House of Representatives, she is number three in the US hierarchy, behind President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the past 25 years, no senior US representatives have visited the island.
Even Biden Isn’t Happy With Pelosi
Pelosi has repeatedly positioned herself as a freedom fighter, for example, for Ukraine – and is currently in the midst of the election campaign for the autumn parliamentary elections. Her visit apparently goes too far even for Biden, who also hails from the Democratic Party. He said the US military doesn’t think Pelosi’s trip “is a good idea at this point”.
Nancy Pelosi’s plans cause unrest between the US and China.
– © AFP / Getty Images / Nathan Howard
Biden is expected to call China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping on Thursday. This will likely be the last chance to smooth out waves to either side, in this case, while saving face.
But this will be quite difficult. In any case, relations between the US and China are more strained than they have been for a long time: China has never condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, emphasizing its strategic partnership with Russia. Furthermore, Biden has not ended the economic conflict with China instigated by Donald Trump. There is a consensus among parties in the US that the emerging and undemocratic China must be contained as the People’s Republic itself increasingly demonstrates its growing global claim to power.
This is particularly evident in the Taiwan conflict. Taiwan authorities are increasingly reporting violations of the flight control zone around the island by the Chinese air force. The rhetoric of Chinese Communist Party officials and the media against Taiwan is becoming increasingly sharp. On the island itself, people are also trying to prepare better and better for emergencies and are currently carrying out a full-scale military exercise.
Increasingly aggressive behavior
Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, a nationalist climate fueled by politics is spreading in the People’s Republic – for that reason alone Beijing cannot leave Pelosi’s visit unanswered.
The only question that remains open is how far Beijing will go. It is conceivable that China will intensify its military agitation over the visit. Pro-government media commentators are already calling for China to close airspace to Pelosi, who would arrive on a military plane escorted by the US Army. This could lead to Chinese planes trying to escort Pelosi out of airspace. A short-term naval blockade that cuts Taiwan off international trade flows is also possible.
One cannot predict how far the United States will rush to help the Taiwanese in an emergency. The US maintains a strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan: it sees itself as Taiwan’s allies, but remains open about military support for Taiwan. President Joe Biden recently emphasized that the island can count on the US for help when the going gets tough. Either way, the conflict has the potential to trigger the next big global crisis – and now it’s growing dangerously again.