USA: Election poll suggests a tie between Biden and Trump in the 2024 election
Exactly a year ago, the President of the United States, Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, is trailing the former president and leader of the Republican race for the nomination, Donald Trump, in five of the six most important states in the presidential race, according to polls released on Sunday. Citizens are worried about the age of the incumbent president and dissatisfaction with the way he is managing the economy.
However, additional results from polls published this Monday by the New York Times and Siena College showed that if Trump is convicted in the legal cases against him, part of his support in the socalled key states which eventually switch sides The number of presidential candidates could fall by up to 6 percentage points from one election to the next, “enough to potentially decide the election.”
Sunday’s results show Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Biden leads in Wisconsin. The incumbent president defeated Trump in all six states in 2020, but Trump currently leads there by an average of 48% to 44%.
Even though polls suggest Biden and Trump are in a tight race when it comes to vote totals, presidential elections are typically decided by results in key states.
Biden’s victories in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all seats Trump won in 2016 were key to his triumph in 2020. He will likely have to sustain many of those victories to get reelected.
“Forecasts made more than a year in advance tend to look different a year later. Don’t just believe us. Gallup predicted President Obama would lose by 8 percentage points, and a year later he won by a wide margin,” Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said in a statement, referring to Democrat Barack Obama’s victory over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
He added that the Biden campaign will “work hard for a year to reach and mobilize our diverse coalition of voters before choosing between our popular, winning agenda and the unpopular extremism of MAGA Republicans (borrowing the slogan ” “Make America Great Again”). ) by Trump. We will win in 2024 with concentration and work, without worrying about research.”
But according to the survey, Biden’s coalition is apparently weakening. Voters under 30 prefer the 80yearold president by just one percentage point. His lead over Latino voters has fallen to single digits, and his lead in urban centers is half of Trump’s lead in rural areas.
Black voters, who make up a key part of the demographic makeup of Biden’s coalition, now record 22% support for Trump in those states, a level never before seen for a Republican in recent presidential elections, according to the New York Times.
The margin of error in each state in Sunday’s poll is 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points, larger than Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania, for example.