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During the lockout, as players competed to get more money for young players, a veteran front office manager told me they already had a tool to help them do just that.
“More five-year-old Superstar players should go to the hearing [in arbitration] at a high number,” the source said. “Even if you win a small percentage of those cases, the wins set new precedents. Five-year-old players in arbitration may compare themselves to players in any class of service. So Trea Turner can compare himself to Francisco Lindor. And those wins set the bar for the group behind it.”
Most players take the safe route. You avoid the risk of animosity that can accompany arbitration. Turner, for example, agreed to a $21 million contract this season, well below Lindor’s average annual value of $34.1 million.
I was reminded of stars who “push the envelope” on pay scales when Aaron Judge turned down the “safe route”: a seven-year contract extension from the Yankees for $30.5 million a year. Ignore the misleading references to “eight years and $230 million.” That’s an incorrect number that includes his salary for 2022, which will be either $17million or $22million – the arbitration figures presented by the player and club – or something in between if they agree ahead of a hearing in June. The Yankees are trying to buy his free-agent years. This is a very different ball game than when a player is under team control.
AP Photo/John Minchillo
The Yankees took the highly unusual step of announcing the terms of their bid, which Judge didn’t seem enthusiastic about. (This after the season’s biggest arbitration loophole remains. Imagine the Yankees arguing against Judge in a $5 million hearing.) Nothing wrong with what New York did, especially given the offer regarding renewals in was indeed fair.
However, if Judge wants to maximize his value, the tool to do so is agency. Eight of the 12 highest AAVs in baseball history resulted from agency leverage. After the season, Judge can offer his services to any team, not just the Yankees. He has no plans to speak further about the contract during the season.
“At the end of the year, I’m a free agent now,” Judge told reporters Friday. “Talk to 30 teams. The Yankees will be one of those 30 teams.”
Taking the security of an extension (the Guardians’ Jose Ramírez) or maximizing value as a free agent (Max Scherzer turned down a $144 million extension from Detroit before turning 210 in January 2015) is a personal choice million dollars from Washington as a free agent) is a personal choice. There is no “right” or “wrong” answer.
This is the only time in his career that Judge has had this kind of earning potential. From 2017-19, when he placed third in the majors in OPS+ and fifth in Slugging and bWAR, he made just $1.85 million. In total.
Judge will play next season at the age of 31. By the end of his next contract, be it with the Yankees or any other club, he will be too old to have anywhere near that impact.
Keep that in mind, and then consider that the Yankees’ offer of $30.5 million a year is less than what they’re paying Gerrit Cole until age 37 ($36 million), less than what they will pay Giancarlo Stanton from 2023-25 ($32 million). ), less than what the Tigers paid Miguel Cabrera eight years ago for his renewal ($37.15 in today’s dollars) and less than what the Angels paid Anthony Rendon as a seven-year free agent (35 million US dollars).
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Additionally, Judge is one of the few or so largest turn cards in the game. Early in his career, the Yankees pitched him in with a personalized section, the Judge’s Chambers, where a real Supreme Court Justice once attended a ball game. How much residual value is left for the player and team to keep Judge a Yankee? Much more than most players.
Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports
Before signing a five-year, $118 million contract with the Phillies, Zack Wheeler returned to the Mets to give the club a final refusal right to keep him there. He heard nothing. Brodie Van Wagenen, the then GM, stated, “The projections we had for Zack — both short-term and long-term — didn’t match the market for him to enjoy.” Wheeler has since taken the Phillies to the next level.
A club should know its own players better than those it acquires. Relying on “forecasts” based on comps and aging patterns is an important part of planning. But the actuarial charts must be supplemented by the player’s knowledge. And in this case the charts aren’t much help because Judge is such an outlier. At 6′ 7″, 282 pounds, he is the tallest player in the majors, and as he turns 30 this month, he has played fewer MLB games than Cody Bellinger, who is 26.
What kind of player will Judge be when he hits 30? The Yankees felt confident enough to guarantee the big guy seven years at age 31-37. In baseball history, only six position players weighing at least 250 pounds were still playing with the majors at 37: Jim Thome, AJ Pierzynski, Cabrera, and three backup catchers, Jose Molina, Erik Kratz, and Corky Miller. Neither was an outfielder.
Many over 250-pounders didn’t last as long, including Prince Fielder (finished at 32), Adam Dunn (34), Dmitri Young (34), Ryan Howard (36) and Frank Howard (36). Frank Howard seems to be the closest thing to Judge. Standing 6 feet 7 inches tall and 255 pounds, he was an athlete good enough to once have 32 rebounds in a game for Ohio State at a Madison Square Garden holiday basketball tournament. From age 31 to 34, Howard posted an OPS+ 167 and made the All-Star Team all four seasons — his only such selection. But his career fizzled out to a quiet end over the next two seasons. He tried to continue playing in Japan but his back gave out.
Frank Howard played his last game 49 years ago. With advances in training, nutrition, medicine and diagnostics, the Comp to Judge is losing much of its relevance.
Injuries are a factor in deciding a judge’s contract. He has missed 23% of Yankees games since 2017. He’s only had two seasons with 500 record appearances — and has finished in the top five in MVP voting each time. Shortstop Corey Seager brought a similar injury history to the free-agent market — just three seasons with 500 record appearances and a top-five MVP result — and was still making $32.5 million a year through age 37 from Texas. (Seager is three years younger than Richter.)
Like Scherzer, Judge is betting on himself and is willing to take the risk of another injury that will weaken his market. And yes, it’s possible that Judge wants to remain a Yankee and get his true market value. The concepts do not have to be mutually exclusive.
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Judge is a tremendous asset to the Yankees: a homegrown slugger with his own marketable brand, much of which can be attributed to his breakaway size. Only four domestic players have ever hit 300 home runs for the Yankees: Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, and Mickey Mantle, whose last game was his youngest in 1968.
With the way he flicks fastballs onto the short right field porch, Judge is made for Yankee Stadium. He shoots .609 into the ballpark. Only three players have ever batted better in New York City: Babe Ruth and Gehrig at Yankee Stadium and Duke Snider at Ebbets Field.
Take Judge out of the Yankees and Yankee Stadium for the next seven years and there’s no one who can replace him, his popularity, and his connection to the franchise. Because of this, Judge goes into free agency rather than already signing an extension. He’s a real runaway with just this one chance to find out what he’s worth.
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