When it was over Sunday night and cameras were on Aaron Rodgers walking from Lambeau Field after a loss to Detroit, it was difficult to keep yourself from reading his body language and where his eyes wandered. It was easy to see that he seemed to be walking a little slower, lingering a little longer, staring a little deeper, like someone meticulously taking in a moment that had to last.
Judging if it’s the end for an elite player like Rodgers feels like soccer meteorology. You study the front office and coaching atmosphere around him. You perceive the emotional currents in the dressing room. Then predict what all this means for his retirement. In reality, only he knows where this is all leading. And sometimes, as we saw with Rodgers on Sunday night, even the player can’t quite grasp what lies ahead.
That doesn’t mean Rodgers hasn’t previewed everyone who looks inside. While still groping his way through the disappointing end to a frustrating 2022 season, the Packers quarterback provided enough information to boil it all down to three questions, both of which will overlap and culminate in another season or collapse altogether and mean that End of his career in Green Bay.
Start with:
1. Does Rodgers have enough desire to ramp up another season?
This is usually the first question that opens the door to the end for top-flight NFL players. Especially those whose bodies are still healthy enough to continue.
It’s no longer about whether they can play, but whether they want to play or not. Though the 2022 season wasn’t his best performance in history, Rodgers’ arm talent is still close to the top of the NFL. But he lost something dynamic with the departure of Davante Adams and the Packers were never able to replicate it consistently, even as Christian Watson thrived in the second half of the season.
Among the questions Aaron Rodgers asked aloud after losing to the Detroit Lions on Sunday night and being eliminated from the playoff picture: “Is it time for another voice to lead this team?” (Photo by Patrick McDermott /GettyImages)
Now Rodgers has a sense of how difficult life can be without Adams. He also knows that there is no guarantee that 2023 will change. This was the place that seemed to frustrate him at times this season: trying to wean younger parts off offense while watching the team fail amazingly at times when it came to playing complementary football. Few players want to finish like this, especially quarterbacks watching the sunset of their careers (see: Tom Brady).
The story goes on
Rodgers summed it up nicely Sunday when he spoke of knowing if the end has come, calling the moment of clarity “a feeling.”
“Do I feel like I still have something to prove to myself?” he asked. “Do I want to go back and prepare for another grind? Or is it time? Is it time to step away? Is it time for another voice to lead this team? I think I need to go and think about these things. They are real to me.”
If the answer to a return is yes, that raises the next question.
2. Will the front office embrace a youth movement leaving Rodgers on an island?
It shouldn’t be a secret anymore that Rodgers prefers to be surrounded by his boys – veterans he knows, trusts and enjoys playing with. That’s not remotely uncommon for quarterbacks playing in their mid-to-late 30s. As the locker room around her becomes younger and younger, her circle around her tends to get smaller. They soon become almost another tier of the coaching staff, expected to teach as much as they play. And that can get especially tough when a quarterback sees his friends rush out because of the passage of time.
Rodgers showed an aspect of that ahead of the 2021 season when he asked the Packers to bring longtime friend Randall Cobb in from the Houston Texans. At that time, everyone must have been aware of how much he appreciates having important confidants by his side. It’s a reality that could pose some problems next season given the Packers’ tight salary cap and some of the free agents looming on the horizon.
Consider the Rodgers confidants set to hit the market: Cobb, who’s performing nowhere near his recent pay scale; kicker Mason Crosby and tight end Marcedes Lewis, both turning 39 this year; and wideout Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan, who are each set to draw solid free-agent offers in March. Also worth noting is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who has a contract until 2024 but has carried a hefty salary and a laundry list of injuries over the past three seasons.
If those players are dropped from the 2023 roster, Rodgers will lose a significant number of the veterans he values. And that sounded like it mattered to him on Sunday when asked what the composition of the team would be like when he returned.
“It’s part of it,” Rodgers said. “That’s definitely part of it. you know big dog [Marcedes Lewis], who knows what he will think? Obviously Randall [Cobb]Mason Crosby, a lot of guys I’ve played a lot of football with over the years, [David Bakhtiari]. That would definitely go in because that’s a big part of what we do. It’s not just gaming. It’s the guys that you play with and the chemistry and love and friendship that we have for each other because that makes all the difference.”
If Rodgers wants to return and the team will be made up of the players he wants to go into battle with, then that last question matters.
3. What kind of commitment will the Packers show Jordan Love this offseason?
Coupled with all of this Rodgers talk of needing to know the organization’s direction is the constant questioning of Love’s future. Drafted in the first round in 2020, a decision on the fully guaranteed five-year option for Love’s rookie deal is approaching. Green Bay has until a spring date (probably early May) to fix Love’s fifth year. The price will be high, expected to land north of $19.5 million for this season.
By committing to that option, the Packers are essentially signaling Rodgers that 2023 will be his final season in Green Bay. There’s virtually no chance the franchise will be hooked on more than $60 million in quarterback salaries in 2024, which is the dollar figure that Rodger’s salary and Love’s fifth-year option would add up to. Especially if Love’s salary would make it a necessity for him to play this season.
At this point, the Packers believe the team’s front office has already concluded that Love’s option will be pursued. Combine that with the possibility of getting out of Rodgers’ contract after the 2023 season to save nearly $16 million in net salary cap, and suddenly the writing is clearly on the wall. In fact, it would start the clock in Rodgers’ senior year with the Packers and start the clock ramping up until Love takes over as the starter in 2024.
With the 2023 team already moving toward more youth and preparing to take over Love in 2024, do the Packers really want Rodgers back for one last awkward hooray next season? For now, he doesn’t think the team is absolutely committed to another year. When asked Sunday if he was sure Green Bay want him back, Rodgers suggested it was still up in the air.
“It’s just a feeling,” he said. “I think to assume it’s a foregone conclusion [the team wants him to return] would be, probably, slightly selfish. So I’m going to be a realist here and understand that there are many different parts. Like I said, I was aware of the possibility that if we got to a point where we weren’t there, they would leave young, and I’m aware of that possibility too [now].”
When you step back and consider all of these questions, the big picture is nothing but a sea of moving parts. Maybe the team wants Rodgers back and he refuses. Maybe Rodgers wants a return and the Packers are ready to move on. They may both want to make another attempt together in 2023, but can’t agree on what that roster should look like.
Very little of this can be answered in the next day or two. This could be a timeline of many weeks, with Rodgers looking at free agency in March as the moment the Packers need to have some finality around 2023. Whatever that stretch looks like, it starts off with whether Rodgers feels like he’s done. Until that is answered, nothing else really fits together.
As Rodgers said on Sunday, “Eventually the carousel will stop and it’s time to get off. And I think you know roughly when that is.”
As he departs for the off-season, that decision doesn’t feel safe. But the clock is ticking and the key questions are pretty clear. The answers will soon be forthcoming – and the next (or final) step in Rodgers’ career will be close behind.