Ukraine’s accession to the EU is almost certain, but it also risks messing up a lot of things. In particular, the highly explosive issue of contract revision is on the table.
It is almost certain that the European Union (EU) will grow. According to European Council President Charles Michel, it must even be ready to accept Ukraine, Moldova and the Balkan countries “by 2030”. The question of expanding the EU beyond its 27 members has long been blocked by several states, including France. But the war in Ukraine changed everything. The proof? During a trip to Kiev on Tuesday, October 2, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced that she was “within the future borders of the European Union,” L’Express reported.
The issue must also be addressed at an informal meeting of heads of state and government in Granada (Spain) on Friday October 6, the day after the third meeting of the European Political Community, at which almost all the continent’s countries are represented. If a large part of the Twenty-Seven now agrees on reviving the enlargement machinery, the modalities for this will be discussed.
The waiver of the right of veto is planned
The question plaguing European diplomats is whether to change the EU’s governance rules. It must be said that there is urgency because decision-making processes can be slow, as the ongoing reform of the European electricity market has shown. “The Union risks becoming ungovernable after 30 years or more because decision-making is taking longer and longer while we live in a world that is evolving ever faster,” says Gaëlle Marti, professor of public law at the University of Lyon 3. The expert is one of twelve co-authors of a report commissioned by the French and German foreign ministries that looks at reform options with a view to enlargement.
In order to make the EU more effective, several hypotheses are envisaged, including the abolition of “the right of veto in the areas in which it is used, such as taxation or defense,” explains the expert. A way to ensure that a country like Hungary, led by Vladimir Putin’s close friend Viktor Orban, can no longer block a package of sanctions against Russia. The report also proposes to review the number of EU commissioners (currently one per country) and the number of parliamentarians. “We cannot simply add more MPs in proportion to the demographic weight of the new members, the European Parliament is already one of the largest in the world,” Steven Blockmans, director of the Center for the Study of Policies European, confirms to franceinfo.
In order to bring more clarity to the EU, the report also proposes that Member States’ electoral laws be harmonized in European elections, that the powers of the institutions be formulated more clearly, but also that Parliament and the Council agree on a method for appointing the President of the Commission to make the process more democratic. However, experts do not go so far as to propose a right of initiative to the European Parliament that would allow MPs to propose laws. It has long been requested by elected officials and is currently reserved for the European Commission.
Towards a revision of the treaties?
Therefore, if Europe needs to develop further, the thorny question arises of changing the treaties that govern the EU. The twelve experts therefore suggest organizing one Gaëlle Marti stressed that the convention would bring together experts, elected officials and European citizens and “provide greater transparency.” Acceptance of treaty changes would then have to be ratified by member states, in some cases by referendum “according to the rules of the states”. At the risk of reliving the psychodrama that followed the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005.
Enough to cool some of the Twenty-Seven. “It is clear that Germany is ready, but other member states don’t want to hear about it,” a diplomatic source told franceinfo. And France? Proof that the issue is important: it was the Elysée that was happy to answer our questions, originally addressed to the Foreign Ministry. But Emmanuel Macron’s entourage remains silent about the head of state’s intentions for the time being, preferring to speak of a “collective European decision”.
The temptation to continue with the “constant right”.
Given some countries’ reluctance to change the rules of the game, European officials risk having to deal with what already exists. In her State of the Union speech on September 13, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen therefore called on states not to “wait” for a change in the treaties on EU enlargement. It must be said that the question of the weight of Ukraine integrated into the EU requires an urgent adjustment of the rules. In addition to its 40 million citizens, the country could monopolize much of European subsidies to the detriment of other member states. An internal EU Council analysis published by the Financial Times on Wednesday estimates that the accession of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and six Balkan countries to the EU would “cut Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies by 20% “to the Member States” and would turn certain recipients of the European budget, such as Poland or Estonia, into net contributors.
However, the alarming figures are being debated among experts on the subject. “The calculations we have made show that the arrival of Ukraine will not completely disrupt the financial balance,” emphasizes Franceinfo Steven Blockmans. In their report, the twelve German-French experts also recommend increasing the EU budget, but also making it more flexible in the event of a crisis. “We can also imagine reviewing how the CAP works,” adds Steven Blockmans. Goals that can be precisely achieved without changing the contract.
“Much is possible without changing the treaties, in particular by using the accession agreements signed by the candidate countries.”
Steven Blockmans, research director at the Center for the Study of European Policy
at franceinfo
In addition, the researcher assures that certain provisions, “such as the reduction in the number of EU commissioners,” were already foreseen “in the Lisbon Treaty adopted in 2007” but “were never applied.” However, the further development of the EU “with constant law” risks rekindling old rifts, suggesting that Europe will be created without its people, even “if the accession agreements have to be accepted by each member state”. Europeans have to get creative. “The EU has always been able to adapt, moderates Steven Blocksman. We still welcomed ten countries at the same time in 2004: it was a big bang, but we knew how to support it.”
One solution could be to set up several integration circles. The twelve experts therefore suggest that certain voluntary countries within the EU could go further in terms of political or economic integration. “But be careful, this does not mean a two-speed union, because the rest of the member states should always respect the treaties, especially the rule of law,” specifies Gaëlle Marti. An option that Emmanuel Macron had already proposed in 2017 during the Sorbonne speech.