If interest rates fall from summer 2024, prices will rise by 5.5% nationally and by 5% in the Greater Montreal area, according to real estate agency Royal LePage.
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According to Royal LePage's market forecast, the price of a home in Canada is expected to increase 5.5% year-over-year, reaching an average price of $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In the Greater Montreal area, the price of a house is expected to increase by 5.0% compared to current values in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $610,260.
The average price of a detached single-family home was expected to rise 4.5% to $684,998, while that of a condominium was expected to rise 6% to $471,912.
According to Royal LePage, real estate prices are expected to rise the most in the second half of the year. These forecasts are based on the assumption that the Bank of Canada will maintain interest rates in the first half of next year and begin moderate easing in late summer or fall.
Elsewhere in the country, the agency forecasts increases of 8% in Calgary, 6% in Toronto and 3% in Vancouver by the end of 2024.
New reality
“It should be borne in mind that the decline in inflation close to the target rate due to the lack of supply will not be enough to slow down the rise in house prices in the long term,” explains Dominic St-Pierre, Vice President. President and General Manager, Royal LePage, Quebec Region.
“Housing is an essential need and the still glaring shortage of housing units to meet demand and population growth is doomed to continue,” he states.
However, consumers will have to adapt to a new reality, he warns. The days of extremely low interest rates are over, he says, which should curb rising prices.