According to a New York Times poll, the former president could win the election based on the results of the swing states.
In terms of numbers, Donald Trump leads the voting intentions in five of the six states that can historically be won by both Republicans and Democrats in the USA.
In another, current President Joe Biden appears at the top. The data comes from a New York Times election poll with Sienna College released this Sunday (November 5, 2023).
These states are the socalled swing states, which historically do not have a Democratic or Republican majority. They are considered crucial for the electoral ambitions of Trump and Biden.
The former president has the biggest advantage in Nevada, where he has 52% of voting intentions to Biden’s 41%. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the benefits are only numerical. Taking into account the margins of error, which vary between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points, there is a technical tie.
Wisconsin is the only state where the population favors Biden: 47% x 45%. On average across the 6 swing states, Trump received 48% of the vote and Biden received 44%.
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election in all six states analyzed by the survey. If the poll results are confirmed in 2024, he could lose the race for a second term in the White House.
The majority of people who chose not to vote for the current president said his administration’s policies were harmful to them.
The Democrat has a slight advantage of 1 percentage point among voters of Latino and Hispanic origin and among voters under 30. The advantage in urban areas is twice as small as Trump’s in rural areas of the US.
When it comes to temperament, 46% of voters said Biden has the right temperament to be president. Compared to Trump’s 43%, that’s not that low.
How the Power360 As reported in September, Biden’s disapproval is at its highest level since his inauguration in 2021. The president turns 81 on November 20, making him the oldest head of state in the United States.
Trump, 77, hopes to defeat the person who toppled him from power in the 2020 election.
METHODOLOGY
The New York Times poll, in collaboration with Sienna College, surveyed 3,662 registered voters in 6 states by telephone from October 22 to November 3, 2023. The margin of error for each state is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points. The overall result is 1.8 pp