Seoul, South Korea CNN —
Russia twice fired North Korean-supplied short-range ballistic missiles into Ukraine last week, an “escalation” of Pyongyang's support for Moscow that has serious implications for both the war in Europe and security on the Korean peninsula, the White said House Thursday.
The North Korean-made missiles were fired at Ukraine on December 30 and January 2, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at a White House briefing. According to Kiev, they were among at least 500 missiles and drones fired into Ukraine around the New Year holidays.
The Dec. 30 attack involved a single missile falling in a field, while Russia's Jan. 2 attack used multiple missiles, he said. The impact of the missiles fired on Jan. 2 was still being assessed, Kirby said, adding they were part of a “massive” Russian attack.
“Due in part to our sanctions and export controls, Russia has become increasingly isolated on the world stage and forced to turn to like-minded states for military equipment,” Kirby said in the briefing. “As we have publicly warned, North Korea is one of these states.”
Kirby and analysts who spoke to CNN said the introduction of North Korean weapons into the war in Ukraine would have repercussions 7,500 kilometers (4,600 miles) east to the Korean Peninsula.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, speaks during a press conference at the White House on January 4, 2024 in Washington, DC. During the briefing, Kirby discussed the U.S. government's belief that Russia was supplied with North Korean ballistic missiles that were used to attack Ukraine.
“This is a significant and concerning escalation of the DPRK’s support for Russia,” Kirby said, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“We expect Russia and North Korea to learn from these launches,” Kirby said.
Analysts shared that opinion, saying the use of North Korean missiles on the battlefield in Ukraine could provide Pyongyang with data it could not get from a testing program that has seen dozens of the weapons fired in recent years as part of leader Kim Jong's missile program U.N.
“It will be interesting to see how these missiles perform in a more operational environment and outside of the North Korean propaganda machine, particularly what evidence there is of accuracy and indeed the guidance systems used,” said Joseph Dempsey, research fellow for defense and military analysis at International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia's use of the missiles against Ukraine allowed North Korea to collect data on how it penetrated defenses similar to those used by South Korea and the United States could station on Ukraine on the Korean Peninsula.
“From a technical perspective, I suspect the North Koreans will be very interested in how their missiles perform against Western missile defense systems,” he said.
Kirby said at the White House that the consequences for South Korea and the region go beyond Pyongyang's ability to refine its missile programs.
“We expect that Pyongyang is seeking military assistance from Russia in return for its support, including fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment, war materiel and other advanced technologies,” Kirby said.
“This would have worrying implications for the security of the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.”
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Kirby ticked off the areas where North Korea's adversaries in East Asia – particularly South Korea, the United States and Japan – have major advantages over the isolated nation.
All three, for example, have advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets that would give them major advantages in trying to break through North Korea's air defenses. However, if Pyongyang acquired more modern Russian surface-to-air missiles with advanced tracking radar, the F-35's lead could be significantly reduced.
Russia is also likely sending money to Pyongyang, said Lee Jang Wook, a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyzes (KIDA).
“The first biggest benefit will be that North Korea's weapons will serve as further export revenue for Pyongyang,” Lee told CNN.
“And these revenues can provide further financial support for the mass production of more nuclear weapons,” Lee said.
Meanwhile, Kirby and analysts say Russia is likely to reap immediate benefits from an influx of North Korean weapons.
“The North Korean SRBMs are unlikely to offer a qualitative advantage over anything already in the Russian inventory. Instead, the main benefit is quantitative, increasing Russia's depleting missile inventory and creating an additional supply line,” Dempsey said.
The North Korean missiles “will allow Russia to continue deep attacks without reducing its own missile stocks,” Panda said. The North Korean missiles have a range of up to 900 kilometers, Kirby said. This would allow them to be fired from lower Russian areas, where Moscow's air defenses could better protect the launchers from Ukrainian counterattacks.
And a North Korean supply has another advantage for Moscow, said Panda.
“Given the land border between Russia and North Korea, it will be almost impossible for Western states to interrupt transfers as long as Pyongyang is willing to continue to cooperate with Russia,” he said.
This creates a worrying picture for Ukraine.
“We expect that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and kill innocent Ukrainian civilians,” Kirby said.
CNN's Soeun Kim contributed to this report.