“I will tell you the truth,” said Vanya, a Ukrainian soldier serving in a reconnaissance unit and fighting alongside Marines on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. “The situation is unfortunate.”
His damning assessment follows months of daring raids by Ukrainian forces into enemy territory last fall to establish a weak bridgehead deep in the southern Kherson region. Under the cover of darkness, troops rushed across the river to inflict damage on Russian units and create one of the few bright spots since the failed end to Ukraine's much-vaunted summer counteroffensive.
But the unit's hold on the Dnipro base near the village of Krynky is beginning to shake. Their positions in swampy terrain and old enemy trenches are shallow and vulnerable to flooding or full of the rotting corpses of Russian fighters. Freezing temperatures are also painful, slowing down operations and making recovery impossible.
Ukrainian troops are suffering heavy losses here, Vanya complains, without providing further details or citing military secrets. The Russians, he adds, have an advantage of at least four or five soldiers per Ukrainian.
Part of the problem is logistical. Because the Ukrainians have to cross the river in small ships to remain undetected and more maneuverable, they are unable to carry larger and deadlier weapons. “Everything we take with us, we can carry ourselves,” says Vanya. “There are at most a few types of grenade launchers. On a very rare occasion I saw a heavy machine gun being brought over.”
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The ultimate goal was to create a position from which the Ukrainian army could launch new attacks deeper into Russian-controlled territory. That seems to be becoming less likely every day, says Vanya. Russian military bloggers and Western analysts say Russian forces have recaptured some positions on the eastern bank in recent weeks.
When asked whether Ukraine could maintain its base there in the long term, Vanya was blunt. “Of course not,” he says. “The fact is that the Marine Corps was unable to maintain the tempo of the offensive and certainly lost the initiative long ago.”
Vanya now expects the troops to fall back to the defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro – otherwise they risk heavy losses among their strongest units.
But the extent to which it should assume a more secure defensive position in view of a difficult third year of the war is no longer just a question of the forces stationed on the Dnipro River, but of the entire Ukrainian military and its commander-in-chief.
As the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion approaches on February 24, Ukraine's military prospects appear to be worsening. She has given up hope of a quick victory and is instead preparing for a protracted war. A Western official who covers Ukraine policy believes there is “little prospect of an operational breakthrough on either side in 2024,” let alone in the next few months.
This reality was acknowledged in Kiev, where President Volodymyr Zelensky declared in early December that “a new phase” had begun. After his troops failed to recapture much of the south as planned, he ordered the army to build new fortifications along key segments of his 1,000 km (620 mi) front line, signaling a shift from an offensive to a defensive posture.
A Ukrainian soldier drives a boat on the Dnipro River. After taking Russian positions on the east bank of the river, Ukrainian forces may have to retreat to the west bank to avoid heavy casualties © Libkos/Getty ImagesThe Western official says an “active defense” strategy – holding defensive lines but looking for vulnerabilities that can be exploited, coupled with long-range air strikes – would allow Ukraine to “expand its armed forces” this year to prepare for 2025, when a counteroffensive would have better chances.
But several factors are likely to determine Ukraine's fate. The most important reason for this is uncertainty about Western military aid, including the ammunition that Ukraine is currently burning through. There are open questions about the West's resolve and whether it can and will continue to support Ukraine in its fight – and if so, to what extent.
The greatest concern is Washington, where the White House announced on December 27 the final withdrawal of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. Although European nations, including Britain and Germany, provide financial support, the United States is Ukraine's largest supplier of military aid. But right-wing Republicans in the US Congress are holding back tens of billions of dollars in future military funding for Kiev. Until Congress acts, there will be no more support.
Fiona Hill, a leading Russia expert and White House national security adviser, told Politico in December that Ukraine had been successful so far “due to massive military support from European allies and other partners.”
“In this regard, we are now at a tipping point as to whether Ukraine will continue to win because it has enough combat power to repel Russia, or whether it will actually start to lose because it lacks the equipment, the heavyweight weapons , the ammunition. This external support will be crucial.”
Even if the White House If the country reaches an agreement with Congress to expand aid to Ukraine, it seems unlikely that it will be able to offer the leap in capabilities and technology that would allow Ukraine to achieve this year to regain decisive advantage.
Asked when the cessation of U.S. aid to Ukraine would have an impact on the battlefield, another Western official who covers Ukraine policy said: “We are confident that the Ukrainians have what they need. “ [to hold their positions].”
During his important visit to Washington in December, Zelensky struck an urgent tone, calling on Republicans in Congress to immediately approve $60 billion in new military aid for his country. In particular, stronger air defense is of immediate importance, Zelensky said, in order to protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure. That need became clear earlier this month when Kiev's nearly four million residents awoke to the sound of explosions from Russian attack drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.
All signs point to more to come. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned in November that Russia had stockpiled missiles for the winter and planned to fire them in large waves in the coming weeks to plunge Ukraine into darkness.
This dire forecast comes as the Kremlin's unprovoked war against its neighbor enters its third year and 12 months after Ukraine appeared to have the upper hand in the fight.
This is a stark contrast to Zelensky's visit to the US capital in early 2023, when he received several standing ovations from American lawmakers as he told them that “you can accelerate our victory.”
Ukraine appeared to have the upper hand on the battlefield after counteroffensives in eastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson led to the liberation of most of the territory from Russian forces since they were driven out of Kiev and Chernihiv in the spring of 2022.
The far-reaching advances gave troops a major morale boost and gave weary Ukrainian society confidence that the war could end in victory.
“At that time, the country lived with the feeling that the weather could only prevent the end of the war,” Ukrainian journalist Pavlo Kasarin recently wrote for the independent news agency Ukrainian Truth.
Ukrainian soldiers discuss operations. Ukraine has given up hopes of a quick victory and is instead preparing for a protracted war © Pool/LANA/PortalMeanwhile, Russia suffered from its defeats. When it launched an offensive in January 2023, the Ukrainians held back its forces. It ultimately had limited success in the eastern city of Bakhmut, where it used scorched earth tactics. But it was a Pyrrhic victory, killing tens of thousands of his battle-hardened fighters and wasting huge amounts of artillery ammunition.
But in the months that followed, Ukraine's counteroffensive fell short of its lofty goals, including retaking Russian-controlled territory and cutting its land bridge to Crimea. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded and hundreds of Western-supplied combat vehicles and weapons were destroyed. As a result, sentiment in Ukraine has plummeted and polls suggest that the unprecedented unity shown at the start of the war may be breaking down.
More importantly, the country now faces a mobilization challenge.
Zelensky's army chiefs have asked him to draft more than 500,000 new troops, a figure that takes into account Ukraine's huge losses and the fact that many troops have fought nonstop for nearly two years. But the president said he needed “more arguments” to support the move while also worrying about making an unpopular decision if his own poll numbers dip.
Reflecting the growing fears among ordinary Ukrainians that the outcome of the war might not be in their favor, Kazarin said: “We are approaching this winter with seemingly fewer reserves of psychological resilience – and with what appears to be greater collective fatigue.”
The nation's concerns are not entirely unfounded. Currently it is the Russian armed forces that are on the offensive.
Ukrainian medics help a comrade wounded in Avdiivka. Russian forces are trying to encircle the strategically important industrial city, where Ukrainian troops can barely hold on © Alina Smutko/PortalIts military is trying to encircle the strategically important industrial city of Avdiivka, which Ukrainian troops can barely hold on to, in order to conquer the entire Donetsk region. In December 2023, the Russians also captured the remains of the destroyed city of Marinka, 40 km northeast.
However, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, argues that the Russian attacks have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough. “Your last pathetic attempt. . .[has]“This has been happening for two months,” he says from his office in Kiev. “No results.”
But it is Russia's Gains on the battlefield have forced Ukraine into a more defensive posture – a strategy supported by Kiev's strongest allies.
The Estonian Defense Ministry released a report in December that said Ukraine should move to “strategic defense” to give the country and its allies time to build up its industrial base, train reserves, increase the workforce and increase production capacity for Increase artillery to resume an offensive operation in 2025.
This is consistent with the strategy that Washington is supposedly selling to Ukraine. Americans are also pushing for a more conservative approach. Instead of ground offensives, the focus would be on holding current territory, consolidating positions and increasing supplies and forces in the coming months.
500,000 army chiefs have advised Zelensky to conscript him
In the meantime, the U.S. says Ukrainian troops could continue to look for vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses to exploit when the opportunity arises. Likewise, Ukraine could continue and possibly increase its long-range air strikes with missiles and drones, which have proven successful, for example, in attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea and airfields there.
Oleksandr Syrsky, the second-largest commander of Ukraine's ground forces, suggested this week that the strategy did not represent a drastic change. “Our goals remain unchanged: hold our positions.” . . Exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum casualties,” he told Portal.
There are others in Kiev who fear that relying solely on a defensive strategy would harm Ukraine's war effort. Focusing on containment without an offensive component would be “a mistake of historic proportions,” warns Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. Without it, Putin “will project around the world that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine,” he says. “It basically just gives him the initiative.” For this reason, Zagorodnyuk adds, it is important to keep Russia on its toes.
Ukrainian artillerymen fire a howitzer near Avdiivka. US intelligence estimates that Russia has suffered more than 13,000 casualties and over 220 combat vehicle losses during its offensive in the region © Viacheslav Ratynskyi/PortalBudanov, the military intelligence chief, agrees that it is important for Ukraine to continue putting pressure on Russian forces, particularly in Crimea through airstrikes, naval drone strikes and covert operations. “Our units have repeatedly invaded Crimea [last year]” he says, promising to send more commandos to the peninsula to disrupt Russian logistics.
There are several reasons for the Ukrainian armed forces to remain optimistic. U.S. intelligence estimates that the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties and over 220 combat vehicle losses since the start of its offensive around Avdiivka in October, the equivalent of six maneuver battalions.
Budanov says these numbers have increased significantly in recent weeks, but could not give exact figures. However, the first Western official to study Ukraine policy estimates that Russia suffered an average of 1,000 deaths and injuries every day in November 2023. Ukraine, the official added, is in a “strong defensive position” around the industrial city, which is home to a large coking plant that once powered the region's metallurgical factories.
Another reason for Ukraine to increase its focus on strengthening defenses is that Russia may be planning a large-scale offensive as early as the summer, according to Ukrainian security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive topics.
Their goal would be to conquer the rest of the four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – that Putin allegedly annexed in September 2022. Furthermore, another attempt in Kharkiv or even Kiev cannot be ruled out, officials say.
A recently declassified US intelligence assessment, reviewed by the FT in December, also finds that Putin's ultimate goal in Ukraine, to conquer the country and subjugate its people, remains unchanged.
This explains why Russia continues its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine across multiple axes, particularly around Avdiivka, but also towards Lyman and Kupyansk in the northeast, the document says.
Russia has been strengthened in recent months by shipments of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea, as well as increased arms and ammunition production, helped by Chinese chips for manufacturing machines. Those efforts have put them in a better position than they were after being weakened in the Battle of Bakhmut in 2023, the officials say.
Whether the Russians will succeed is another question. Budanov is not convinced that, even with North Korea's support, his enemies can produce as many shells and troops as they lose. In addition, Ukrainians have proven adept at defending their territory.
“It is clear that it is difficult for both sides to engage, train and support [their] Armed Forces,” says Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine. “Neither of them is able to create and use anything [a] numerical preponderance.”
Russian troops board a plane in Chechnya en route to Ukraine. Russia's successes on the battlefield have forced Ukraine into a more defensive posture © Chingis Kondarov/PortalBut first both sides have to face the brutal winter. While subzero temperatures will undoubtedly impact Russian military logistics and operations, they won't stop them completely, says Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister.
A willingness to vigorously defend its territory may be the smarter move. Because “Russia will always try to attack in winter,” warns Zagorodnyuk.
But a military standoff could benefit Moscow, according to US intelligence. Putin calculates that a stalemate will weaken Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give the Kremlin an advantage.
The Western official who deals with Ukraine policy says: “It is fair to say that the Ukrainian system is entirely dependent on continued military support from the West.”
Additional reporting by Ben Hall in London and Felicia Schwartz in Washington
Cartography by Steven Bernard and data visualization by Ian Bott