“A few more visits and then we’ll start the offensive.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s testimony in Germany points to the need to dispose of every single cartridge and to avoid “premature” measures, as he himself stressed. The Russians, on the other hand, claim the operation began with a reference to the attacks on Bakhmut. Less schematic is what the field tells us, where everyone is preparing for a big crash.
The Siege
News reports describe a heated battle in the besieged town. The Ukrainians are trying to advance further north and south after gaining about 17 square kilometers. While the invaders retreated in some areas, they claim they blocked the attack and remain in control of much of the city. But they complain of significant losses. Two colonels were killed: one was the commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade Vyacheslav Makarov, the other was named Yevgeny Brovkov and was also in a higher position.
Observers believe Kiev has deployed significant forces, possibly involving vehicles and newly NATO-trained soldiers. An on-site test and a move of opportunity after the favorable situation has been identified (or created). In conflicts there are plans, but also the “moments” that need to be used. When there is a collapse in the lineup, tactical superiority emerges. How great the success will be, only the future will be able to estimate. For almost a year, soldiers have been competing for an area that was once inhabited and has now been reduced to rubble by cannon fire.
preparations
The Ukrainian president has just collected a huge aid package from Germany – from anti-aircraft missiles to tanks – and his aides keep demanding more, more and more fighters. The point is to have an arsenal that can support articulated maneuvers. It is the experts who assume a series of initiatives and not a single attack. Hypotheses like many others, scenarios full of conditions. Instead, offensive and defensive preparations are recognizable. The Russians have reported missile attacks by bombers and naval units in the Black Sea on large arms/ammunition depots: attacks documented by videos, explosions, flames. The goals also include a location in the west of the country, in Ternopil.
The secret service spies on incoming supply convoys from Poland and gives the coordinates to the Air Force and Navy. It has happened before, it will happen again. However, attacks can also affect the civilian population. Kyiv responds with his punches. Ammunition, communications routes, troop concentrations, radar installations and the crossings housing senior officers are in the crosshairs. Wherever possible, it uses Himars, but outside of the 80 km radius it uses drones instead and, for a few days now, the British Storm Shadow cruisers with decoy missiles, which are intended to deceive the anti-aircraft defenses. Analysts do not rule out that the Kerch Bridge in Crimea will again become a target: the bombs delivered by London have powerful and accurate warheads.
There are still many hypotheses about the downing of two helicopters and two fighter jets in the Bryansk region of Russia. Kiev blames a defense blunder in a high-profile case of friendly fire. Strange, however, that it was a large number of aircraft. Intruder sources suspect the activity of commandos infiltrated with man-portable anti-aircraft missiles. There is a third thesis: they were attacked by apparatuses stationed in Ukraine. The outcome remains unchanged, as does the perception of a Ukraine resuming the initiative after months of an exhausting war of attrition. Between hopes, expectations and fears of the outcome.