Hong Kong CNN –
Australia’s difficult relationship with China in recent years has had far-reaching costs – sweeping trade restrictions by Beijing devastated Australia’s wine industry, hurting the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen across the country and disrupting billions of dollars in trade.
Now Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is heading to Beijing on a landmark trip – the first by an Australian leader in seven years – that is widely seen as a step forward in efforts by both sides to stabilize relations after years of economic tensions.
There is a lot at stake for the four-day visit that begins Saturday. Albanians will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang there and will stop in Beijing and Shanghai.
The two countries have only in recent months begun to emerge from a diplomatic standoff that has escalated since 2020, when Beijing imposed punitive trade restrictions on a range of Australian exports.
At the time, it was seen as political retaliation for then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s calls for an international investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic in China, even though relations had been deteriorating for some time.
China’s Foreign Ministry blamed Australia for the trade woes, accusing it in 2020 of “violating the basic norms of international relations,” although the Commerce Ministry cited anti-dumping and other reasons for the restrictions.
Both sides have much to gain from a retreat from these economic tensions and have worked hard in recent months to pave the way for the trip.
How well leaders manage the relationship also has important implications for the Indo-Pacific, where smooth communications between China and Australia, a key U.S. ally, could play a stabilizing role in the increasingly contentious region. Executives from Washington to Seoul will likely be watching closely.
Albanese’s trip also has symbolic undertones, marking the 50th anniversary since the first official visit by an Australian leader to communist China after the two countries established relations.
A visit to mark this diplomatic milestone marks a step forward in relations, according to Jingdong Yuan, an associate professor at the University of Sydney who specializes in Asia-Pacific security.
“This visit is very symbolic, but still very important. It’s only been 18 months since they’ve come this far from their lowest point – this is a good start (for them) to figure out where they can work together,” he said.
Speaking from the northern city of Darwin before his departure on Saturday, Albanese said the upcoming trip was the result of a “patient, calibrated and deliberate approach that we have to relations with China”.
“The fact that it is the first visit to our most important trading partner in seven years is a very positive step,” he said, according to Portal.
However, a number of tensions will cloud the proceedings. Analysts say the meetings could lay the groundwork for expanded communications but will not be enough to turn back the clock on a now fragile relationship.
Beijing’s economic campaign exacerbated growing concerns in Australia about alleged Chinese espionage and political interference, its ambitions in neighboring Pacific islands, etc the detention of Australian citizens.
Journalist Cheng Lei, jailed in 2020, was released last month before Albanese’s trip was announced, but writer Yang Hengjun has remained in prison since his detention in 2019 on espionage charges, which he denies.
Meanwhile, as rivalry between the US and China grows, Beijing is increasingly concerned about the growing security ties between Canberra and Washington. China had been annoyed by Australia’s public expression of national security concerns for years, including its ban on telecommunications provider Huawei in 2018.
The election of Albanese’s Labor government last May shifted these tensions, as Beijing has since gradually rolled back many of its trade controls – including on barley, timber and coal – while Australia’s new leadership dialed back the rhetoric.
Canberra announced Albanese’s trip late last month, shortly after the two countries reached an agreement that could see the end of tariffs on wine – one of the most glaring sore points in this tranche of trade restrictions, the resolution of which the head of state said would take around 1.2 percent would be worth billion Australian dollars (US$773.6 million) to Australia.
In his meetings with Chinese officials, Albanese is likely to push for the lifting of outstanding restrictions, such as on lobsters – and address issues such as China’s aggression in the South China Sea and the detention of Yang.
“When it comes to China, I say we will work together where we can, we will disagree where we must and we will stand up for our national interests, and I will always speak on behalf of Australians,” said Albanese told reporters on Wednesday that he was in contact with Yang’s family.
According to Elena Collinson, head of research analysis at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, the Australian leader’s visit presents an opportunity for Beijing to advocate for greater Chinese access to Australia’s resource and renewable energy sectors.
Chinese leaders could also look to Albanians to support China’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade pact between countries on both sides of the Pacific, she said.
For China, the visit coincides with its push to restore ties with other U.S.-friendly economic partners such as those in Europe – part of an attempt to prevent them from aligning too closely with American China policy.
“As tensions with the US simmer and its own economic situation falters, it is in (China’s) interest to bring some stability to its relationship with a resource-rich US ally,” Collinson said.
James Bugg/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Wine barrels and pallets of bottles are stacked at a winery in the Yarra Valley, Victoria, Australia in late 2020.
Albanese is traveling to Beijing less than two weeks after meeting US President Joe Biden in Washington.
There, the two leaders expressed shared concerns about “China’s excessive maritime claims” in the South China Sea.
They also welcomed the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the US and the UK, which is helping Australia acquire nuclear submarines, and the Quad, an informal grouping with Japan, India and the US.
To restore ties with China, Albanese must draw a line between those interests and China’s distrust of those blocs’ goals, analysts say.
“Albanians can deliver the message when it comes to the Quad or AUKUS… Australia has a long history of being part of (such) security arrangements – and (they) don’t necessarily target China,” said Yuan in Sydney, who is also director of is the China-Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Albanese can also convey that what China does “could influence the direction of these agreements,” he said, adding that Australia could serve as an example to other middle powers with close ties to Washington on how to carry messages between them The US and China can play a role in shaping relations with both powers.
Xi, meanwhile, is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco later this month and meet with Biden, as the powers also seek to stabilize their strained ties.
Easing tensions with Australia could also help create a positive atmosphere ahead of important talks.
And as China marks this new milestone with Australia, the Chinese leader and his officials may be taking note of the outcome of their economic campaign against the country, analysts say.
“Beijing has learned that the weapon of trade will not force a close U.S. ally to back down,” Collinson said. “And has only served to increase other countries’ distrust and skepticism about his motives.”