From Carlos Menem to the Kirchners, there was political movement in the Casa Rosada; Javier Milei’s victory marks Peronism’s worst defeat in 40 years
The victory of Javier Milei, a selfproclaimed libertarian and anarchocapitalist, in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday (11/19/2023) marks a new chapter in the country’s political history since the end of the military junta that ruled from 1976 to 1976 in 1983.
Milei defeated current Argentine economy minister Sergio Massa, a moderatewing, leftwing Peronist. Thus, the political movement that emerged in the 1940s under thenPresident Juan Domingo Perón (19461955 and 19731974) will clear a Casa Rosada dominated by Peronism in eight of the last twelve terms in office. Current President Alberto Fernández is also a Peronist. The result represented Peronism’s worst defeat in 40 years (see the end of this report for more).
Peronist longevity is explained in part by its diverse and often ambiguous core pillars.
During Juan Perón’s first two terms at the helm of the executive branch, thenArgentine President introduced a regime that sat at the intersection of various aspects of government fascism (labor law, nationalism, Catholicism), socialism (recognition of the working class as a political actor, appreciation of agricultural workers and underemployed urban workers) and the liberalism (elections, political parties, relative freedom of the press), linked by close relations with the army and the Catholic Church.
Thus, the political movement attracted sympathy and support from groups across conflicting political spectrums by promoting the inclusion of marginalized classes without harming the interests of traditional ruling elites.
Officially, the Peronist group is the Justicialist Party. After Perón, six other representatives of the movement headed the Casa Rosada:
- Isabelita Peron (19741976), the first woman to lead Argentina, was vice president when she took office on the eve of the death of her husband Juan Perón. Their mandate was marked by violence against the “Montoneros,” a radical leftwing movement that was excluded from Peronism. His government authorized the persecution and murder of guerrilla fighters and leftwing figures. His mandate ended with a military coup in 1976;
- Carlos Menem (19891999)responsible for implementing the neoliberal reforms of the Washington Consensus (1989), his mandate was marked by privatizations, control of hyperinflation, dollarization of the economy and modernization of the public sector, but also by allegations of corruption and the introduction of the reelection mechanism;
- Eduardo Duhalde (20022003), took over after the succession crisis with the resignation of Fernando de la Rúa (19992001). In conjunction with the labor movement, it ended the parity between the Argentine peso and the dollar, but confirmed the moratorium on debt repayments and carried out the budgetary adjustment required by the IMF (International Monetary Fund);
- Nestor Kirchner (20032007), advocate of the strong role of the state as an engine of development, had a government characterized by economic growth based on the increase in commodity prices and the reduction of poverty, inflation and public debt. He led the review of amnesty procedures for military personnel and the creation of comprehensive social programs. He died of cardiac arrest in October 2010;
- Cristina Kirchner (20072015), Néstor’s wife, was elected in 2007 and continued the Kirchnerist current of Peronism. She was investigated for embezzlement and money laundering. She was sentenced in December 2022 to six years in prison and the loss of her political rights but she was not arrested because she had a privileged forum and still had the right to appeal in other cases. In 2019, she abandoned her candidacy for head of the constituency and was elected vice president to Alberto Fernández.
- Alberto Fernández (since 2019)elected as a critic of Mauricio Macri’s agreements with the IMF, governed the country during the pandemic but will leave the Casa Rosada with tripledigit inflation and interest rates, economic contraction and record debt.
Even in the crisis of 2001, the lightningfast succession of four presidents (Ramón Puerta, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, Eduardo Oscar Camaño and Eduardo Alberto Duhalde) within ten days was dominated by Peronist currents.
MILEI WILL BE THE 4TH NONPERONIST
At his inauguration on December 10, Milei will join a select group of presidents no longer associated with the movement since redemocratization:
- Raúl Alfonsín (19831989), the first elected government after the dictatorship, led the country in the process of redemocratization and held the military accountable for crimes against civilians. He paved the way for cooperation agreements with Brazil, which led to the creation of Mercosur in 1991. After an economic crisis, he brought forward the elections and thus shortened his mandate;
- Fernando de la Rúa (19992001), Eduardo Duhalde, Carlos Menem’s candidate, won, but his presidency was marked by the “Corralito” crisis, when the government limited dollar withdrawal amounts. The move led to a bank robbery and street protests that left nearly 40 people dead. Due to this scenario, De la Rúa resigned in December 2001;
- Mauricio Macri (20192023), The billionaire businessman, former mayor of Buenos Aires and former president of Boca Juniors, was the first nonPeronist to complete his term. His government tried to align itself with the international parameters of economic competitiveness required by the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). However, he left his successor a runaway foreign debt with increasing poverty and inflation.
The defeat is the worst in 40 years of Peronism
With 99.28% of ballot boxes counted, the 55.69% of votes Milei received in the second round represents the worst result for Peronism since the election of Raúl Alfonsín in 1983, when he won with 51.75 % of votes. Votes against the Peronist Italo Luder, who received 40.16%.
In 2003, the dispute was characterized by a peculiarity: Carlos Menem, who had been president in the 1990s, withdrew in the second round of voting against Néstor Kirchner, who was elected despite fewer votes in the first round. Both were also associated with Peronism.
To win in the first round, presidential candidates need at least 45% of the valid votes excluding blank and zero votes or 40% and a difference of 10 percentage points relative to second place. If no one reaches this mark, a second round is necessary. In this case, the candidate with the highest number of votes wins.
