After the AfD’s electoral success in the Sonneberg district elections, a possible party victory is also imminent in other districts and cities. The established parties are already looking forward to next year’s state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD could also succeed and even become the strongest party.
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Three places the AfD could soon rule
The next district election in Brandenburg will take place in about three months, on October 8, in the Dahme-Spreewald district. In the neighboring Oder-Spree district, it was already tight in mid-May this year, when AfD candidate Rainer Galla lost 47.6% of the vote to his SPD opponent Frank Steffen in the second round for the district office. .
In Dahme-Spreewald, the AfD is currently the second strongest force in the district council. In the 2019 European elections, he was even ahead with 20.7 percent of the votes, in the same year also in the state constituency of Dahme-Spreewald III, where candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt won the direct mandate with 28.9 percent. . Berndt has been the leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the state parliament since 2020 and heads the association “Zukunft Heimat”, which Brandenburg’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution has called “proven right-wing extremist”.
Sonneberg District: Here candidate Robert Stuhlmann was elected the first AfD district administrator in Germany. © photo alliance/dpa/Martin Schutt
Former District Administrator Stephan Loge (SPD), who won office on the first try in the last election, is no longer running this time around – which could boost the chances for the AfD. The fact that she has high hopes for the post of district administrator can be seen from the fact that she is nominating a federal politician as a candidate: Steffen Kotré. He is the spokesman for economic and energy policy for the AfD parliamentary group. This shift back to the municipal level is unusual.
178,000 people live in the Dahme-Spreewald district, more than three times as many as in the Sonneberg district. It extends to the city of Berlin, includes Königs Wusterhausen and Berlin Airport BER in Schönefeld. In May, the region made headlines when locals racially abused Berlin 10th graders at a summer camp in Heidesee.
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In Saxony, most district administrators have already been elected in 2022. There are mayoral elections in many places here in 2023 – the most important one in November in the town of Pirna, which has a population of 40,000. In the last federal elections, the AfD won a direct seat in the local constituency, and in Pirna candidate Steffen Janich received 31.1% of the vote. The AfD is also the strongest faction on the city council. In the 2019 local elections, she received 19.6 percent, a list that emerged from the party split of former party leader Frauke Petry polled a further 9.9 percent.
As in Dahme-Spreewald, the previous holder is also retiring in Pirna. During the corona crisis, Klaus-Peter Hanke sought dialogue in the deeply divided city, but he also signed an appeal from restaurateurs and retailers who warned that “hygiene demonstrations” could keep tourists away. Opponents insulted, pushed and hit police officers in Pirna, in May 2020, a national photo of Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer in a tinfoil hat was taken here.
Culture of debate: Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) speaks to an opponent of the Corona measures in Pirna. © picture Alliance/dpa/Matthias Rietschel
Tim Lochner, who left the CDU in 2016 and claims to have taken part in Pegida demonstrations before, is now running for the AfD. Lochner was also the leader of a demonstration against the Corona measures and was fined for taking part in another unauthorized demonstration.
In Thuringia, the next mayoral and district elections will take place in spring 2024. In the last election in 2018, the AfD fared better in the city of Gera, population 91,000. Its candidate lost 30.2% to the current mayor, Julian Vonarb, in the second round. AfD Deputy Spokesperson Stephan Brandner, who sits in the Bundestag for the city, was directly elected in the constituency and received 29.6% of the vote of the people of Gera. He is considered a confidant of faction leader Björn Höcke.
Which state parliaments could the AfD move to as the strongest force
At the state level, the Bavarian and Hessian parliaments will be elected this year on 8 October. In both federated states, the party is far from having power options. In Bavaria, the AfD is at 12% in the most recent poll, and in the last state election in 2018 it already won 10% of the vote.
But Bavaria has a special feature in the federal structure. Here free voters have a seat in the state parliament and even in the state government. Its strongman, Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger, has recently used politically skeptical right-wing populist rhetoric. That’s what happened when he appeared at the demonstration against the heating law in Erding in mid-June. Here Aiwanger demanded that “the vast silent majority of this country” must “regain democracy”. With such statements, Aiwanger nets potential AfD voters. Recent polls have seen free voters in Bavaria at eleven percent, roughly at the level of the 2018 election (11.6 percent).
Hopes for success with AfD rhetoric: Bavarian Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger (free voters). © dpa/Sven Hoppe
A new state parliament is also being elected in Hesse, where the AfD was founded. Here, the AfD is 13% in the last poll and therefore at the level of the 2018 election (13.1%).
The political situation and climate in the eastern states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, which will elect their state parliaments in September 2024, are completely different. The AfD was already the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia (in Brandenburg, the SPD) in the 2021 federal elections.
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In Brandenburg, the AfD is between 23 and 25 percent in the latest polls, in Saxony between 24 and 28 percent, in Thuringia more recently at 28 percent. As things stand, the AfD could become the strongest faction in every state parliament. So, will we have the first AfD state parliament presidents in 2024? The already difficult task of forming a government is set to become even more complex.
The AfD could already achieve national success in the June 2024 European elections. European elections tend to have low turnout, which strengthens protest parties. In 2019, the AfD scored eleven percent nationwide. On European Election Day, citizens of nine federal states will vote through their municipal representations, including in Baden-Württemberg and in all eastern states except Berlin. Going forward, that should bring the AfD numerous mandates on city and district councils.