A summary of the intelligence assessment obtained by CNN says that the intelligence community’s consensus view is that while fewer than a dozen “core members” of Al Qaeda remain in Afghanistan — and were likely there before Kabul fell to the Taliban last year — Zawahiri was the only key figure trying to re-establish himself in the country following the withdrawal of US troops.
The US understands that these remaining members are not involved in planning external attacks and that the group as a whole “is incapable of launching attacks against the US or its interests abroad from Afghanistan.”
Despite the new assessment, difficult questions remain about whether the risk could increase over time, US officials told CNN. There are also concerns about whether terrorist activity originating in Afghanistan could spread beyond the country’s borders, and that the US, given its reduced intelligence capacity in Afghanistan, could be blind to it.
The new assessment also warns that al Qaeda “has several partners that we believe would be brought in outside the region to advance potential plans.”
National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the US “will remain vigilant, along with our partners, to defend our nation and ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorism.
“We demonstrated our commitment to this last month when we removed the leader of al Qa’ida from the battlefield. In doing so, we have shown that without American forces on the ground in Afghanistan, we can remain in danger and find even the world’s most wanted terrorist and then take action.”
Despite the successful drone attack on Zawahiri this month, the fact that a key al-Qaeda leader was living in Kabul — with knowledge of the Taliban, US officials said — immediately raised questions about whether al-Qaeda was using Afghanistan as a target again Safe haven. It also raised questions about the quality of the US intelligence-gathering capability, which has dwindled since the US withdrawal.
The new intelligence assessment also marks a significant improvement on predictions made a year ago by top US intelligence and defense officials who said al-Qaeda would regroup in Afghanistan and become a threat to the country within a year or two USA could represent.
“The current estimate is probably conservatively one to two years for al Qaeda to build up some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said last September.
As CNN previously reported, US officials believe al Qaeda is still assessing its ability to operate under Taliban rule and will likely focus on maintaining its safe haven in the near term rather than planning external operations. FBI Director Chris Wray has continued to express concern about the potential threat. “I’m concerned about the possibility of al-Qaeda regrouping,” he told Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, during a congressional hearing earlier this month.
When asked if he was concerned about an attack on the homeland “coming from places like Afghanistan,” Wray said, “We are. Especially now that we are out there, I am concerned about the potential loss of sources and collections there.”