Silence has reigned in Alex DeBrincat’s camp for the past few weeks as rumors swirled about his future in Ottawa.
But on Monday night, DeBrincat’s agent Jeff Jackson wanted to address a storyline that’s gaining momentum.
After a Postmedia headline read, “Alex DeBrincat’s contract requires cessation of trading with Ottawa Senators,” Jackson texted The Athletic calling the report “completely false and baseless.”
Jackson wanted to clarify the circumstances surrounding his client, which he believes have been misrepresented in recent media reports.
“As far as I have been informed, there has been no agreement on an actual deal with Alex, and I would request this before entering into an actual negotiation,” Jackson wrote. “We’re patiently waiting for that to happen.”
And when it comes to the notion that DeBrincat and his agent are an impediment to the Ottawa sniper trade, Jackson has been very pointed in his assessment of the situation.
“Agents and players don’t do business…that’s the GM’s job,” Jackson wrote.
DeBrincat doesn’t include a no-trade clause in his contract, so the Senators are technically free to send him to any club in the NHL — without needing DeBrincat’s approval.
However, as he heads into final season as a restricted free agent, DeBrincat’s value is somewhat limited at this point. If the senators can work out a sign-and-trade option for DeBrincat, they could maximize their returns. But if they trade him when his contract has only one year left, their returns will be diluted.
“Obviously the team will give you more if they know they’ve had him for more than a year,” Senators general manager Pierre Dorion said last week. “So in our situation it would be ideal.”
The standoff between DeBrincat and the Senators has already broken two key pressure points. The first was last week’s NHL Draft in Nashville, where Dorion appeared unenthusiastic about some offers he made for the two-time, 40-goal winger.
“We’re not going to trade him for pennies on the dollar,” Dorion said on June 28. “We think he’s a really good asset.”
Dorion hoped that with the opening of free-agent on July 1, a second pressure point would arise. If teams tried to get points help through the free agent market, Dorion was optimistic that some would come back to talk about DeBrincat.
“By July 1st, I think we’ll have a good idea,” Dorion added on June 28th. “Maybe there could be teams that aren’t there right now as they target players they’re not winning.”
But July 1st came and went with no significant offers on the table for DeBrincat.
“Nothing new on Alex DeBrincat,” Dorion told reporters during his July 1 media session in Ottawa — though he said there was “different interest” in the winger.
Now both parties are waiting for the third pressure point in the form of an arbitration hearing, which is expected to take place at the end of July or beginning of August. On Saturday, Dorion conceded, “When the arbitration deadline comes, we’ll have to make a decision.”
One option Dorion suggested was the idea that DeBrincat could return to play with the Senators next season. Dorion has clarified that DeBrincat did not request a transfer from Ottawa during his exit interview with management at the end of the regular season. So it seems that we have not yet reached the point where there are irreconcilable differences between the two parties.
“He has indicated to us that he will not sign here long-term. That doesn’t mean he won’t sign at short notice,” Dorion said on Saturday.
In this scenario, DeBrincat would return to Ottawa in the fall on a one-year contract. And perhaps the terms of that one-year contract will be settled through the arbitration process. If Ottawa wins his case, there’s a chance an independent referee will award him a contract for the 2023-24 season worth $7.65 million – a 15 percent reduction from the $9 million he was awarded should actually earn.
And while that would be a win for the senators, it would also effectively negate the option of a sign-and-trade for DeBrincat to leave Ottawa. Once DeBrincat agrees to a one-year deal — whether through negotiation or arbitration — he cannot sign a contract extension for the 2024-25 season and beyond until after January 1, 2024.
The Senators would then have to push the DeBrincat situation to a fourth — and much more jarring — pressure point by the close of next season. When they’re in the middle of an Eastern Conference playoff race, it might be difficult for them to justify trading a player of DeBrincat’s stature, especially when he’s enjoying a catch-up season. And if they actually trade it, they may only get the value of pure rent at the close of the trade.
The trade deadline for next season will be March 1, 2024, meaning DeBrincat has the unrestricted free agency finish line just four months away. He may be even more reluctant to sign a long-term renewal at this point, choosing to wait until July 1, 2024 to select his preferred destination.
With each passing day, the influence swings more and more in DeBrincat’s camp as he nears full freedom of action. Indeed, that power will vest in DeBrincat after the arbitration.
Dorion and the Senators won’t want to embark on the uncertain path of watching their star winger possibly walk out the door for nothing next summer. And he probably doesn’t want to repeat the process he experienced with Mark Stone in the 2018-19 season, finally closing a trade with Vegas just minutes before the trading deadline.
That makes the arbitration hearing the most likely catalyst for a resolution to the DeBrincat saga in Ottawa in the coming weeks. We saw a similar situation last summer between Matthew Tkachuk and the Calgary Flames before a blockbuster trade with the Florida Panthers in late July.
For that to happen for DeBrincat and the Senators, however, both sides will likely need to take a deep breath, pause, and find a suitable trading partner sometime in the next few weeks.
(Photo: David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)