The guessing game in Moscow these days: where are they?
Days after a mutiny by mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, who sent thousands of his fighters toward the Russian capital, a growing number of prominent commanders and public figures have disappeared from public view.
Shaken by the greatest challenge he has faced in 23 years as the country’s pre-eminent politician, President Vladimir Putin has proposed rooting out those inside and outside the military who have implicitly or openly allied with Prigozhin.
He may also be trying to eliminate those who allowed this to happen or whose leadership of the Russian war in Ukraine he believes held them accountable.
“The armed uprising of the private military company Wagner has become a pretext for a massive purge of the Russian armed forces,” said Rybar, а Telegram channel in connection with a former Defense Department official.
The scope and extent of the alleged purge is unclear, as is the depth and breadth of support for Prigozhin in the Defense Ministry, security agencies, and elsewhere. Some of those who have disappeared from view may simply go into hiding – by order or on their own initiative – in the hope that the crisis is over.
Tatyana Stanovaya, a longtime Russian political analyst, warned that it was unclear whether there would be widespread layoffs and a major reshuffle of Putin’s closest advisers or other influential figures.
“What characterizes the current situation is Putin’s progressive loss of initiative in dealing with domestic issues,” she said in a post on Twitter. “His elevated emotional state makes him more vulnerable to manipulation. We seem to be observing a new phase in Putin’s regime, in which those around him are becoming more actively involved in shaping his development.”
Here’s who’s disappeared and who’s burst into the spotlight.
Sergey Surovikin
Dubbed “General Armageddon” by the Russian tabloid, General Sergei Surovikin is arguably – after Prigozhin – the person most closely watched after the mutiny.
Surovikin was currently the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces appointed Russia’s supreme commander for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last October.
By this time the invasion was stalling; Ukrainian forces had surprised Russian troops with an offensive in the Kharkiv region in the north-east. Surovikin ordered Russian forces to fire missiles at Ukraine’s power grid and civilian infrastructure. Under pressure from the advancing Ukrainian troops, he too withdrew the Russian forces from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region to the south.
Putin awards Surovikin (left) for commanding Russian forces in Syria in 2017.
Surovikin’s appointment was endorsed by Prigozhin and other hard-line nationalists, who urged the Kremlin to launch an even more brutal campaign against Ukraine. He was seen as a ruthless – and effective – commander who oversaw Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict in the late 2010s. In Syria, he and Prigozhin probably strengthened their working relationship.
“Surovikin [is] “A brute, but also one of the more able Russian commanders,” said Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, in one post on twitter.
But Surovikin only stayed three months as commander-in-chief of the war in Ukraine: he was demoted and replaced in January by General Valery Gerasimov, the longtime chief of staff and Putin supporter.
In the first hours of the mutiny, Surovikin appeared in a video calling on the Wagner fighters to resign. But Surovikin’s behavior in the video raised questions about whether it might have been coerced.
Since the video, Surovikin has not been seen or heard from in public.
SEE ALSO: The Week in Russia: Rebellion, Oppression, Weakness and War
The Financial Times, The Moscow Timesand the Associated Press reported that Surovikin was believed to have been arrested by the authorities investigating the mutiny – although it was unclear whether, if so, he was being treated as a suspect or a witness.
Aleksei Venediktov, the well-connected editor-in-chief of the now-defunct radio station Ekho Moskvy, said in one Post on Telegram On June 28, Surovikin announced that he had not had any contact with his family for three days.
On June 29, the head of the Moscow Public Surveillance Commission, a state-sanctioned agency that monitors jails and jails, released a cryptic statement on Telegram that raised as many questions as it answered.
“My answer is: he is not in Lefortovo or any other pre-trial detention center,” said Aleksei Melnikov calledand refers to a notorious high-security prison in Moscow, where suspected treason and espionage are usually held.
Yevgeny Prigozhin
The last time anything was heard from Prigozhin was in 11 minutes audio message on his Telegram channel on the evening of June 26, almost 48 hours after the mutiny was allegedly broken up.
“We started our march because of injustice,” he said. “Our goal was not to overthrow the existing regime and the legitimately elected government, as has been said many times. We turned around so as not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers.”
However, the audio message did not reveal where and when the recording was made, nor did it reveal Prigozhin’s physical whereabouts.
A video released on June 24 showed Yevgeny Prigozhin (center) meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov (left) and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alexeyev (right) in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
According to the agreement, first announced by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin was to travel to Belarus and his Wagner fighters were also allowed to travel there or sign contracts to serve under Defense Ministry command.
On June 27, Lukashenka claimed that Prigozhin had arrived in Minsk, but there was no independent confirmation. Flight trackers showed that a private jet registered with his company arrived in the Belarusian capital that day and returned to St. Petersburg on June 28, but that was the case not clear if he were on the jet for either leg.
Putin’s scathing condemnation of the mutineers – he called the action a “treason” and a “pride in the back” – suggested that Prigozhin and his allies could face retaliation: arrest or worse.
SEE ALSO: Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Russia’s top domestic intelligence agency announced on June 27 that it would drop its criminal investigation into the mutineers. However, the Kommersant newspaper and several state-controlled news agencies later reported that the investigation was still ongoing.
Sergei Shoigu
One of Putin’s closest and senior According to those familiar with him, 68-year-old Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was subjected to harsh criticism and vaguely racial slurs by Prigozhin – and other hard-line nationalists and military bloggers – for commanding the entire Russian military during the invasion of Ukraine.
At least since last summer, when the Russian invasion was faltering, Prigozhin has repeatedly attacked him by name, accusing him of depriving Wagner troops of the ammunition they needed to fight in the now-ruined Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
Shoigu’s distrust of Prigozhin was less visible. But in May, the Department of Defense issued an order that would formally place the Wagner fighters under regular command, stripping the group of its quasi-autonomous force.
This was believed to be the last straw for Prigozhin, who resisted losing control of his forces.
In the wake of the mutiny, the Ministry of Defense posted a video by Shoigu inspecting and awarding medals to Russian troops at an undisclosed location. The video appeared to have been taken before the rebellion.
A photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry is said to show Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (centre) inspecting a military unit on June 26.
However, as part of Prigozhin’s mutiny, his forces seized control of Russia’s southern military command in the city of Rostov-on-Don, putting his troops in a direct confrontation with Defense Ministry officers. Another video circulated on Telegram early June 24 showed Prigozhin meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alexeyev.
“We want to get the chief of staff and Shoigu,” said Prigozhin. “Until they get here, here we are, we’re blocking the city of Rostov and moving toward Moscow.”
“You believe that whatever you are doing right now is right. Is that true?” The video shows Yevkurov asking Prigozhin. “Absolutely right. We are saving Russia,” Prigozhin replies.
SEE ALSO: Belarus appears to be rehabilitating an abandoned garrison. For whom?
This video was seen as a potential embarrassment for the two top military commanders who played key roles in the invasion.
shoigu was shown on June 26, he attended a Security Council meeting with Putin. A day later, Shoigu appeared at the ceremony in the Kremlin, where Putin thanked the soldiers and guards and those “who stood in the way of the mutineers.”
He did not speak and has not given media interviews since the mutiny.
Valery Gerasimov
Prigozhin’s other punching bag was Gerasimov, who, as Chief of the General Staff, is Russia’s top military officer.
Like Shoigu, 67-year-old Gerasimov is considered loyal to Putin, a trait the Russian leader is known to value.
Shoigu and Gerasimov (right) are pictured on December 16, 2022.
Known as a persistent, competent strategist, Gerasimov played a minor role in the Ukraine operation for much of 2022. But his position at the start of the full-scale invasion in February and the major failures suffered by Russian forces spurred him on, with critics calling for his dismissal.
Gerasimov received the post of Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine in January, as Putin demoted Surovkin. A western expert characterized the argument as “internal power struggles, power struggles, jealousy”.
Gerasimov, who has never had a very public media presence, has not been seen or heard from since the mutiny. Unlike Shoigu, he did not appear at the Kremlin ceremony on June 27.
Viktor Solotov
In contrast to the commanders and officials who have disappeared from view in recent days, Viktor Solotov, Putin’s longtime bodyguard from his St Petersburg days, has seen a significant increase in his public presence, which has historically been relatively small.
Solotov’s loyalty to Putin earned him the appointment as the first chief of the newly created National Guard in 2016. Regarded as a kind of Praetorian Guard, the National Guard has grown into a 300,000-strong force whose responsibility for ensuring internal stability in Russia is closely aligned with other units of the Interior Ministry, the Federal Security Service and other agencies.
General Viktor Solotov, then head of Putin’s security service, walks behind the Russian president in Vienna in 2007.
Zolotov has been mostly a behind-the-scenes player, but his most visible public presence in recent years has come in 2018, when he publicly responded to an investigation by opposition figure Aleksey Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, which alleged that procurement contracts worth nearly $30 Millions of dollars were stolen by the National Guard.
“I’ll just challenge you to a duel, in the ring, on the judo mat, whatever, and I promise to screw you,” he said calledaddressed to Navalny.
Zolotov also appeared at the ceremony in the Kremlin, where Putin thanked the units – including some of the National Guard – for their service during the mutiny.
Unlike Shoigu, however, Zolotov spoke publicly to reporters after the incident and announced that his forces would be given heavy weapons, including tanks, to bolster their arsenal.
“We focused all our fists and forces precisely on the approaches to Moscow,” Zolotov boasted to reporters. “For if our forces had been scattered [Wagner] would have gone through her like a knife through butter.
“The rebels would not have taken Moscow,” he said.
Other names to keep an eye on
It’s also worth paying attention to several other low-key, non-distinctive names that serve as clues as to where a potential purge could lead:
Colonel-General Andrei Yudin, Russian military bloggers reported that Zurovikin’s deputy commander of the Aerospace Forces was arrested earlier this week. However, he later answered the phone when a reporter from the pro-Kremlin news site called him Ura.ru: “I’m at home, on vacation.”
Colonel General Mikhail Mitsintsev Wagner joined as deputy commander in early May, days after he was fired as deputy secretary of defense.
Mizintsev is known as the “Butcher of Mariupol” due to his role in last year’s scorched earth siege of Ukraine’s Sea of Azov port city Wagner as well as regular troops.
The two officers Yevkurov and Alexeyev, who appeared alongside Prigozhin in the early mutiny video, have also been out of sight since last weekend.