On the anniversary of the invasion, the most steadfast allies are sending out a double message: concrete support for Kiev, end Putin’s bet on the West’s “fatigue”, which also exists in some countries. On the other hand, the rumors of Chinese drones being sold to Russia are back.
The help
There is a part of the coalition that does not want to let up and is stepping up its efforts. The United States is ready with a new military aid package ($2 billion) that includes ammunition for guns and himars, attack drones, and communications equipment. Sweden, in turn, has committed $50 million to the civil/humanitarian sector, to which must be added the commitment to send ten Leopard 2s, while Canada has approved a further budget of $32 million and Australia will send more drones. The move in Warsaw was significant: the first four Leopards, part of a “bigger lot,” have just arrived at a Ukrainian barracks, and 60 PT91 tanks, a modernized version of the T72, will be delivered soon. The Poles said they are ready to train F16 fighter pilots. Again as part of the so-called Panzer Group suggested by Berlin, Finland promised three Leopard 2s, as many Portugal, Spain between six and ten. There are still many to meet the quota of 200 armored vehicles, a minimum target for the Resistance to form new detachments along with US tanks Stryker and Bradley. A long time, however, for the American Abrams 1: According to forecasts, they should not be available until next year. Washington hesitated, undecided whether to build them or withdraw them from depots, with further delays in spare parts, training, and logistics.
Chinese shadows
Beijing, which presented a diplomatic plan, reacted indignantly to the (American) hypothesis of military support for the invasion. However, the German weekly Spiegel has returned to the subject: According to rumors, the Chinese could deliver a hundred ZT 180 kamikaze drones with a warhead of 35 to 50 kilograms to the occupiers in April. In addition, a project for the construction of a factory on Russian territory with a capacity of 100 per month is being built. A scheme reminiscent of that of Iran’s Shahed 136 aircraft. They are equipment necessary to hit military installations, but also civilian infrastructure, the targets of the terror campaign. According to Kiev, since February 24, 2022, the invaders have carried out 5,000 rocket attacks and 3,500 airstrikes, nearly a thousand drones have been deployed in Ukrainian urban areas. Consumption of carriers is high, Moscow has increased the utilization of factories, but needs sufficient stocks, the same need for Ukraine. Because of this, Putin’s military has also begun using balloons to distract or deceive enemy defenses, a function shared with missiles without explosive warheads.
Future
Expert Dara Massicot writes in an analysis of the New York Times: The Russian army is like a car with a broken gearbox, it cannot accelerate, but it keeps going. And it doesn’t matter if the spare parts are old and the drivers are not always prepared (our round-up, editor’s note). The Kremlin doesn’t care about the monstrous losses at the moment, they are convinced that they can handle it, so they send the units to attack without worrying too much. What is happening around Bakhmut is proof of that. Moscow is convinced that the wear and tear of the Ukrainians will prove them right in the long term.