WASHINGTON — Allied governments are debating how to secure the line of succession in Ukraine in the event President Volodymyr Zelensky is captured or killed by Russian forces, several government officials say.
The concern is primarily about maintaining an independent Ukrainian government in one form or another, even if Russia finds a way to install a puppet leadership in Kyiv, the capital. Recognizing an independent leader would help prevent any Russian-backed leaders from legitimacy, Western officials say.
Mr. Zelenskiy’s presence and motivational speeches have been key in keeping the morale of the Ukrainian military and people up, and officials have said it’s important that this continues.
The focus on ensuring continuity is partly because Ukraine’s constitution is not clear on the issue, and also because Mr. Zelenskiy said he didn’t want to be evacuated. He memorably remarked: “I need ammo, not a trip.” Despite news reports, US officials deny they ever offered to evacuate the president or advised him to leave. And Western governments have applauded his determination to stay and fight while Russian forces try to advance across the country.
The United States, Great Britain and the European Union do not recognize the Russian-created government. However, undermining the Moscow-controlled government in Kyiv will be easier for the US and its allies if there is a legally recognized leader of a free Ukraine, rather than competing politicians claiming that role.
Some practical and legal issues also matter. European Union and NATO countries have largely made public their military and economic donations to show support for Ukraine. European countries sent automatic weapons, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, various anti-tank missiles and defenses to demonstrate that the allies intend to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to cripple the Russian military.
It is much easier to continue such public support when a functioning government accepts help, even if it operates in western Ukraine or as a government-in-exile in Poland or Romania.
The United States has a long history of clandestine arms shipments to insurgent groups around the world. Such a program for Ukraine, which would require a formal but secret opinion from President Biden, remains a possibility. But the longer the organized military fights Russia, the more likely it is that Ukraine will be able to maintain control over all or part of the country.
Last week, intense discussions at the White House and in closed-door meetings on Capitol Hill focused on how to help Ukraine if Russia seizes the capital. In this situation, the administration now plans to continue to openly supply weapons to the Ukrainians.
A strong public signal of support for secret weapons programs should help bolster Ukraine’s morale and demonstrate to Russia that arms supplies to the Ukrainian military will not stop, according to a person briefed on the discussion, who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations with the Ukrainian government.
U.S. officials have urged Ukrainians not to allow high-ranking succession officials to remain in the same location for long periods of time and have also called for them to be relocated to safer locations outside of Kyiv, a person briefed on the conversations said.
US and allied officials would like the Ukrainian government to create a place where the leadership could use it if Kyiv falls, several officials said. The presidential hideout in the Carpathians in western Ukraine may have been used, but Ukrainian officials have not said if the facility is equipped with bomb shelters and enhanced communications.
Updated
March 5, 2022 10:10 am ET
According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the speaker or chairman of the parliament will succeed Mr. Zelensky as acting president. The current speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk, is a pro-Western politician and a former top aide to Mr. Zelensky. On Monday, Mr. Stefanchuk was photographed with Mr. Zelensky signing Ukraine’s application for membership in the European Union. And on Friday, he took part in a virtual meeting with the President of the European Parliament.
US and European officials said Mr. Stefanchuk and other heirs should have continued to oppose the Russian invasion.
Ukrainian officials resisted proposals from US and European officials to move Mr. Stefanchuk, but said they understood the need to secure a succession, according to two people briefed on the conversations.
On Thursday, Mr. Zelenskiy held a press conference in a room where sandbags were stacked against the windows for protection. Although he didn’t talk about succession, he did mention the possibility of death.
Ukrainian officials have publicly stated that they are not interested in discussing succession and are focused on fighting and winning the war. Marian Zablotsky, an MP from Zelensky’s party, said in an interview that he had not heard any discussions on the issue of succession to the throne.
The pre-invasion approach, when Ukrainian officials were publicly skeptical of a Russian attack, quickly gave way to a clearer view of the situation. Ukrainians are now ready to make wartime calls, people briefed on the calls say.
In the weeks leading up to the invasion, the US and Britain had warned of Moscow’s desire to remove Mr. Zelensky from power. They discussed how continuity would work in Ukraine if they were to confront a Russian-backed coup.
And despite public pre-invasion rhetoric that the United States was exaggerating the threat, Mr. Zelenskiy privately took the warning more seriously and realized the Russians intended to capture or kill him, according to US officials.
During a visit to Kyiv in January, CIA Director William J. Burns discussed intelligence about the threat to Ukraine with Mr. Zelensky, according to a person briefed on the meeting. When Mr. Zelenskiy raised the issue of his family’s safety, Mr. Burns responded that he needed to take both threats to Ukraine and himself seriously.
Since the invasion began in earnest, Russian officials have made it clear that their intention is to oust the incumbent government in Ukraine and install a government friendly to Moscow. The State Department has accused Russia of compiling lists of Ukrainian politicians to arrest and arrest as their forces advance.
“The significance of Zelensky’s personality in the current circumstances is beyond doubt,” said Christina Golinskaya, a Ukrainian who recently wrote an essay on succession issues in The Hill newspaper. “If something happens to him, it would be very important to send a crystal clear message about who is now running the country, how the government will be run.”
Ms Kholinskaya, a RAND researcher, said that while it would be unwise for Ukraine to make public plans to relocate the government, she hopes it is ready to work outside Kyiv.
Beyond Mr. Stefanchuk, speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, the line of succession is not entirely clear, Ms. Golinskaya said. When Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Stefanchuk contracted Covid in 2020, Ukrainian legal scholars said that Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal would be third in line for the presidency.
The Ukrainian constitution creates the positions of first deputy and deputy chairman, who serve as the speaker of parliament, although it does not explicitly state that they are in the line of presidential succession.
“People need to know who is next in line,” Ms Holinska said. “Now Zelensky is very focused. He’s on the news, he’s everywhere. The loss of this image of a leader will have a bad effect on resistance, on the will to fight, on the spirit in Ukraine.”
Andrew E. Kramer in Kyiv and Safak Timur in Istanbul provided reporting.