Climate crisis
According to researchers, carbon emissions that are driving the climate crisis and the rapid occurrence of an El Niño event are to blame
Global temperatures rose sharply to a new record in September, stunning scientists and leading to them being described as “absolutely mind-boggling bananas”.
The hottest September on record follows the hottest August and the hottest July, the latter being the hottest month on record. The high temperatures have led to heat waves and forest fires around the world.
September 2023 beat the previous record for that month by 0.5°C, the largest jump in temperature ever observed. September was about 1.8°C warmer than pre-industrial values. Data sets from European and Japanese scientists confirm the jump.
The heat is the result of persistently high carbon dioxide emissions combined with a rapid shift in Earth’s largest natural climate phenomenon, El Niño. The last three years have seen La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, lowering global temperatures by tens of degrees as more heat is stored in the ocean.
Conditions have now developed into an El Niño event, releasing ocean heat and driving up temperatures. It’s all but certain that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, and 2024 could even top that, as El Niño’s warming effects will be felt most acutely in the year after it begins.
“In my professional opinion as a climate researcher, September was absolute madness” Zeke Hausfather saidat the Berkeley Earth Climate Data Project.
The first global temperature data is available for the entire month of September. In my professional opinion as a climate scientist, this month was – absolutely overwhelmingly mundane. JRA-55 exceeded the previous monthly record by over 0.5°C and was about 1.8°C warmer than pre-industrial values. pic.twitter.com/mgg3rcR2xZ
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) October 3, 2023
Mika Rantanen, a climate researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, said: “I still struggle to understand how a single year can make such big jumps compared to previous years.” Prof Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading, UK, said, the heat this summer is “unusual“.
The monthly ERA5 data for September 2023 has been published.
I still find it difficult to understand how a single year can make such a big leap compared to previous years.
Just by adding the most recent data points, the linear warming trend increased by 10% since 1979. pic.twitter.com/AnNAbyUQwY
— Mika Rantanen (@mikarantane) October 3, 2023
Samantha Burgess from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said: “The unprecedented seasonal temperatures observed in September broke records many times over.” [is] It is on track to be the warmest year, about 1.4°C above pre-industrial average temperatures. Two months later [the UN climate conference] Cop28, the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more important.”
The heat also reached record levels in many countries, including France, Germany and Poland. Britain experienced its warmest September on record, according to Met Office data dating back to 1884.
In Australia, climate scientist and author Joelle Gergis said: “The Australian climate observations in September are shocking. The figures show where maximum temperatures were the highest on record, with many areas 3 to 5C above average. Rainfall deficits are a harbinger of drought. The summer will be brutal.”
The observations of the Australian climate in September are shocking. The figures show where maximum temperatures were the highest on record, with many areas 3-5C above average. Rainfall deficits are a harbinger of drought. Summer is going to be brutal. https://t.co/EOOIPzRWFO pic.twitter.com/EiisgYhefS
— Joelle Gergis (@joellegergis) October 3, 2023
While human-caused global warming and El Niño are the biggest factors behind the record-breaking temperatures, other factors could also be contributing to small increases, Hausfather said. These include an increase in the 11-year solar cycle, a reduction in sun-blocking sulfur emissions from shipping and industry, and a volcanic eruption in Tonga that released large amounts of water vapor, which traps heat.
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In August, the Guardian surveyed 45 leading climate scientists from around the world about the record-breaking temperatures. They said that the overall global warming trend observed so far was fully consistent with three decades of scientific predictions, although it certainly appeared that events had taken an alarming turn.
Scientists have also long flagged increasingly severe weather impacts, although the speed and intensity of the reality, as well as the unexpected vulnerability of many populations, have deterred some. The most shocking events were the exceptionally high sea temperatures and the loss of sea ice in Antarctica.
The scientists said the extraordinary events of 2023 could be a normal year in just a decade, unless there is a dramatic increase in climate action. Researchers overwhelmingly suggested that one action was crucial: reducing the burning of fossil fuels to zero.
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