These elections, organized in the 50 states of the country, allow the nomination of the candidates of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for the American presidential elections scheduled for November 5th. They should end with a new duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
They mark the start of a big election year in the United States. Across the Atlantic, the Republican presidential primaries begin in Iowa on Monday, January 15th. Weather conditions permitting, election rallies will be organized in this Midwestern US state. Canceled flights, snowy roads, postponed campaign events… Since Friday, this Midwestern state has been hit by a winter storm and a cold snap described as “dangerous.” Organization, candidates in the race, key moments… Franceinfo explains everything to you.
What do these primaries consist of?
These elections, organized in the fifty states of the country, aim to nominate the candidate of the Republican and Democratic parties for the presidential election on November 5th. By June 4, American voters in each state will elect the candidate of their choice to represent the Democratic or Republican Party in November. Depending on the voting results, each candidate is allocated a certain number of delegates. To be nominated by their party, candidates must receive a majority of delegates.
The area code system evolved significantly at the turn of the 1970s. Vox recalls that in 1968, a handful of states organized primaries and the Democratic Party nominated a candidate who had not won any of those elections. In the years that followed, in both the Democratic and Republican camps, “we put power in the hands of the primary voters, they have a say in the selection of candidates,” emphasizes historian Ludivine Gilli, a specialist in the United States. More and more states have held primaries and caucuses. From now on, all American states and territories will take part in these votes to nominate candidates for the highest office.
How are they organized?
“There is really a mix” of rules from one state to another, emphasizes Ludivine Gilli. Each party “sets guidelines, but each state then has complete freedom to organize the vote,” notes the director of the North American Observatory of the Jean Jaurès Foundation. Some hold open primaries in which voters who are not affiliated with their party can vote. Other states prefer closed primaries — which are reserved for Americans registered as party voters — or semi-open primaries.
Other states hold caucuses rather than primaries. Republican conventions will therefore take place in Iowa, Nevada, Idaho or North Dakota. The Democrats are planning caucuses in Idaho and Wyoming. “The principle of election meetings is deliberation: you listen to the speech of a party representative or a candidate and then vote,” explains Ludivine Gilli. On Monday, Iowa caucuses will be held in gyms, schools… or even churches.
In recent years, “the Democratic Party has encouraged states to use primaries instead to expand access to these ballots,” explains Caitlin Jewitt, a political science professor at Virginia Tech University. Each state retains its choice of voting method. “Certain states have a long tradition of organizing caucuses. (…) States have also moved from a caucus to a primary or from a primary to a caucus,” the expert continues.
What will be the highlights of the campaign?
The early votes in these February primaries and caucuses in Iowa, Nevada and even South Carolina are anything but trivial. They allow favorites to emerge and thus give them a certain legitimacy in the eyes of the public and the media. “The voters in the primary states have a big influence on which candidate is nominated, confirms Caitlin Jewitt. Candidates often give up after just a few states.”
On the Republican side, there will be a debate between the candidates on January 21, less than a week after the Iowa caucuses. A highlight of these elections will take place on March 5th, when voting will take place in no fewer than 17 American states and territories. Alabama, California, Minnesota, Texas, Virginia… This Election Day is known as Super Tuesday. In the Republican camp there are no fewer than 874 delegates at stake. On this day, Americans should have a clearer idea of the future contenders for the White House.
Regularly, “a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee before the end of the primaries,” emphasizes Caitlin Jewitt. “Either because he has reached 50% of the delegates or because his competitors have withdrawn from the race.” Delegates are allocated to different candidates based on their results in these primaries and caucuses. They then go to the national party conferences, another key moment of this parliamentary term.
How do parties nominate their candidates?
States and parties have different rules for determining the number of delegates allocated to candidates, depending on their results in primaries and caucuses. As Caitlin Jewitt explains, “The Democratic Party requires that states use proportional representation starting at a threshold of 15%.” In other words, any candidate who received more than 15% of the vote in the primary is awarded a certain number of Delegates allocated based on the percentage of votes received. In the Republican camp, the states opt for proportional representation or the “winner take all” principle. The top candidate thus receives all state delegates for the party.
These delegates can be “members of the party who have applied to be delegates, local elected officials, local councilors” or other political leaders, explains Ludivine Gilli. They will then vote at the convention, an event dedicated to the official inauguration of each party's candidate for the White House. The Republican National Convention will be held July 15-18 in Milwaukee and the Democratic National Convention will be held August 19-22 in Chicago. If no candidate receives a majority of delegate votes after a first vote, new rounds of voting will be organized.
Who are the Republican candidates?
Seven Republican Party figures are vying to represent the Grand Old Party in the presidential election. The first of these is former President Donald Trump. His election campaign is marked by the numerous legal proceedings against him and the question of his possible ineligibility to vote. In late December, the Colorado Supreme Court and Maine Secretary of State ruled that he was ineligible to vote in their respective states. The US Supreme Court must take up the issue soon. Before his verdict, Donald Trump's name will appear on the ballots in these states.
Two candidates, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, are currently the billionaire's main rivals. The first governor of Florida, comfortably re-elected in 2022, presents his state as a laboratory for the ultra-conservative policies he wants to implement in the United States. Attacks on abortion rights and LGBT rights, overhauls of school programs… For Ron DeSantis, Florida is the state where “woke culture” is dying. However, his candidacy stalled as Donald Trump grew in his voting intentions in a “game of communicating vessels,” notes Ludivine Gilli.
Nikki Haley governed South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 before becoming U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during Trump's presidency. Nikki Haley is well-respected in this role and is trying to be a more moderate voice within the Republican Party. However, she defends conservative politics, notes Vox. “She is strongly anti-abortion, but since she has been on the campaign trail she has avoided commenting on a federal law banning abortion,” notes Ludivine Gilli.
Other Republicans are also involved in this nomination race: thirty-year-old biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, described by the New Yorker as “CEO of Anti Woke”; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley.
Does Joe Biden have rivals on the Democratic side?
In the Democratic primaries, the current President of the United States, the official candidate since April, faces two other candidates. Nevertheless, his appointment is almost assured given his status as outgoing head of state.
“The Democratic Party’s decision was to go with Joe Biden.”
Ludivine Gilli, doctor of history
at franceinfo
However, Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips remain in the race for the Democratic primary and caucuses. The first is competing again after already trying her luck in 2020. The author, who specializes in personal development, is the former spiritual advisor to famous presenter Oprah Winfrey, reports The New York Times. This Democrat calls for reparations for the descendants of slaves, the formation of a Ministry of Peace and defends free child care. However, she defended controversial and even incorrect medical theories. His rival, Dean Phillips, elected to the House of Representatives from Minnesota, defends Joe Biden's record but calls for “a new generation of American leaders.”
What do the polls say?
Not surprisingly, Joe Biden is well ahead of his rivals in the Democratic primary: As of January 9, he received 71.3% of voting intentions, compared to 6.1% for Marianne Williamson and 2.9% for Dean Phillips, according to this the website FiveThirtyEight.com. Since May, voting intentions for the outgoing president have fluctuated between 58% and 71%, while his competitors have stagnated below 10%.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump remains well ahead on the Republican side with more than 50% of voting intentions since April. As of January 10, he received 61.3% of voting intentions, compared to 12.5% for Ron DeSantis and 11.5% for Nikki Haley. The other candidates lag far behind this trio: Vivek Ramaswamy achieved 4.5% of the voting intentions, Asa Hutchinson 0.9%.
If these opinion studies are confirmed, Joe Biden will run against Donald Trump again on November 5th. Polls conducted in December and reported by FiveThirtyEight show the Republican currently slightly ahead of the outgoing president.
What will be at stake in the elections?
The legal cases against Donald Trump are expected to be a major issue in these primaries. The former president was the subject of four indictments and is targeted in 91 cases, recalls CNN. Several of his trials must also begin in the middle of the election campaign: His trial in Washington for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election must begin on March 4…the eve of Super Tuesday. Another trial, this time over the retention of confidential presidential documents, is expected on May 20. In total, Donald Trump may face six trials in the coming months. At the same time, the economy, particularly inflation, abortion rights and even immigration, “will certainly be important issues in the election campaign,” analyzes Caitlin Jewitt.
I didn't have time to read everything. Can you give me a summary?
From Monday, January 15th to Tuesday, June 4th, primaries and caucuses will be organized at the level of American states and territories to nominate the candidates of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party for the presidential elections. To get invested in the race for the White House, Republicans and Democrats must achieve a majority of delegates in the race, which will then vote at conventions this summer.
The Democratic primaries and caucuses appear to be a formality for Joe Biden, who benefits from his status as outgoing president. On the Republican side, Donald Trump has been the big favorite with more than 50% of voting intentions since April. Six other candidates are against him. These Republican primaries should be dominated by the various trials against the billionaire.