Minority governments are fragile by definition. Will Justin Trudeau, who has now led a minority government for 16 months, be tempted to overthrow Canada in elections this year? Would he do it in the middle of winter? This was the case in 1980, during a historic election that had also led to the political resurrection of his father, Pierre Trudeau.
The story begins on May 22, 1979 when Joe Clark’s Conservatives won the election. Pierre Trudeau campaigned for the bourgeoisification of the constitution. He gets 40% of the vote versus 35% for the Conservatives, but the Blues have 136 MPs versus 114 for the Reds. Trudeau announces his retirement.
The interested party then notices the journalists’ comments on his career. Many note the lack of achievements. Trudeau is all the more shocked because he agrees. His dream of returning the constitution fell through.
The Clark government, however, governed with difficulty. The Iranian Revolution caused an oil shock. The economy is bad. In this context, the Conservatives presented an austerity budget in December 1979.
Taxes and more taxes
Treasury Secretary John Crosbie decides to introduce several new taxes. There’s one for tobacco, one for alcohol, and most importantly, one for 18 cents a gallon of gas.
These measures will be unpopular, but Conservatives are convinced that the Liberals, who lack a leader, will not dare provoke an election by allying themselves with the NDP and rejecting the budget.
In principle, the Blues can also count on the vote of the Quebec creditors, six MPs who can give them a majority.
However, for incomprehensible reasons, Clark’s troops did not court her. In addition, some curators are missing. Secretary of State Flora MacDonald is in Paris. A deputy is confined to a hospital bed… and another is extending his vacation to Tahiti!
Meanwhile, sentiment in the Liberal Party is high. On December 12, the Reds held their traditional Christmas party on the Hill. Pierre Trudeau makes a surprise appearance. They invite MEPs to vote against the budget.
Forced discharge from the hospital
In the hours that followed, Trudeau’s former political advisor, Jim Coutts, counted the forces present for the December 13 vote. He is convinced that the government can be defeated if all the Liberals are present and Ed Broadbent’s NDP also votes against the budget. Coutts convinces everyone.
When the time comes, there are even two hospitalized Red Elected Officers who have to swap their patient jackets to put on their jackets and ties and go vote. At 10:20 p.m. the result is: 139 against and 133 for. Clark has no choice but to call an election.
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Joe Clark was beaten because of his unpopular budget and had to trigger this election which he didn’t want.
Five days later, Trudeau announces his return.
When he returns, he is to repatriate the Constitution and defeat the Quebec Nationalists. Only he didn’t say anything about it during the election campaign.
The Liberal leader attacks the Conservative budget and promises to intervene in the energy sector to protect Canada from the oil crisis. He also assures that his government will do more to help the underprivileged. Trudeau also plays to his best image, drawing in the crowd while skating down the Rideau Canal.
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Pierre Trudeau had been politically revived at that time.
On February 18, the PLC forms a majority government with 147 seats versus 103 for the PC. The Liberals won 74 of the 75 seats in Quebec, but only two in western Canada. Regardless, Trudeau is now in a strong position to win the referendum and bring back the Constitution.
When there is a minority government, history teaches us that anything can happen.