As the United Nations’ annual COP28 climate summit continues, controversial comments from Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the conference’s leader, are rocking the event and raising questions about how substantive a new fossil fuel deal resulting from the meeting will be .
In a meeting a week before the conference, Jaber – UAE minister of industry and advanced technology and chairman of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – told a panel he believed there was no science to suggest phasing out fossil fuels This would help keep global temperature rise below the key 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
“There is no science or scenario that says phasing out fossil fuels can achieve 1.5°C,” Jaber said during a climate panel in late November hosted by climate nonprofit She Changes Climate as first reported by Guardian reports. Furthermore, he appeared to be entirely against a fossil fuel phase-out: “Please help me, show me the roadmap to a fossil fuel phase-out that enables sustainable socio-economic development, unless you want to conquer the world back to caves.” (He later called an exit “inevitable” and “essential.”)
As Vox’s Umair Irfan explained, a large majority of countries previously agreed to limit the average global temperature to 1.5°C above the Earth’s average temperature before the Industrial Revolution. The idea is that limiting the rise to 1.5°C is the most realistic strategy for minimizing extreme weather events and other climate disasters. Because of the international significance of the figure, Jaber’s critics viewed his statement as undermining research into the causes of climate change and a threat to the COP’s goals.
Climate scientists have stressed that Jaber’s statements were inaccurate, with some noting that they were reminiscent of arguments the fossil fuel industry is known for. According to the 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, greenhouse gas emissions – largely caused by fossil fuel use – would need to be cut by almost half by 2030 to keep temperature rise below 1.5°C. Scientists also fear that it is too late to even limit temperature rises to this level and that the goal is no longer tenable. For example, as Irfan noted, 2023 could be the first year in which average global temperatures rise above 1.5°C.
“Al Jaber’s comments are absurd and disturbing, revealing both an ignorance of science and a disdain for the need for rapid decarbonization, which is at the heart of the negotiations he is essentially leading as COP28 president,” said the University of Pennsylvania climate researcher Michael Mann told Vox.
Jaber’s comments also directly contradict the statements of many world leaders, including UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who said on Friday: “The science is clear: the 1.5 degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop “To burn all fossil fuels.” Don’t reduce, don’t let up. Exit with a clear time frame.”
Jaber has since responded to the backlash, claiming he is focused on ensuring “everything we do is focused on science” and that there has been a “misrepresentation” of his statements. In his remarks on Monday, Jaber reiterated that he believes that “exploitation of fossil fuels is inevitable,” as he previously stated during the She Changes panel.
His comments during the panel discussion only served to deepen existing scrutiny of Jaber’s leadership of the COP, as he held the role of head of a national oil and gas company and reported that he exploited that position to advance the UAE’s business interests. (He has denied these allegations.)
His statements also come as participants in the annual climate talks address a heated debate over the future of fossil fuels and weigh a deal that could significantly restrict or eliminate their use in the future. As CNBC reports, many climate experts believe this year’s COP cannot be considered a success unless participants agree to phase out fossil fuel use, a decision that some countries are wary of. Participants pushing for a weaker option are pushing for a “phasing out” that would reduce rather than eliminate fossil fuel use.
Jaber’s previous comments stoke uncertainty about how aggressive countries will be in COP agreements pushing for reductions in fossil fuel use.
Jaber’s comments on fossil fuels come amid a major debate
As several climate experts have pointed out, the scientific evidence directly contradicts Jaber’s comments. As NPR’s Rebecca Hersher writes, scientific studies have shown that fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions must be dramatically reduced to limit global temperature rises. Hersher explains: “To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, carbon dioxide emissions would need to fall by 80% by 2040 and 99% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels, according to the most comprehensive global scientific consensus report on climate change.”
In order to achieve these goals, the production of fossil fuels would have to be drastically reduced – if not completely stopped – from now on. 2040 is just over 16 years away. That’s why climate experts and activists want world leaders to emerge from this year’s COP with an aggressive but workable plan to quickly phase out fossil fuels. As summit participants discuss next steps to reduce fossil fuel consumption, there is significant disagreement over the possible approach that could have a measurable impact on any effort to stay below 1.5°C.
A central point of contention is the debate about an “exit” or a “phase-down”. Climate scientists have pushed hard for the former as a way to quickly curb emissions from oil and gas, while Jaber and members of the fossil fuel industry have kept the door open for the latter. A phase-out would reduce fossil fuel consumption over time and occur gradually.
“The outcome of COP28 must be that all oil, gas and coal nations of the world recognize that we are now truly at the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era for the global economy. And that we are now starting to really bend the curve,” Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told CNBC.
Jaber’s comments raise questions about how strong the fossil fuel deal that emerges from the summit will be and his exact stance on the issue, given his comments at the She Changes Climate event that were critical of an exit. “I have said time and time again that phasing out fossil fuels is inevitable. In fact, it is important… it must be orderly, fair, just and responsible,” Jaber said at his press conference on Monday.
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